How Long of a Leash Do the Tigers Give Jack Flaherty?
With the Tigers struggling mightily and several arms on the mend, it's time to evaluate Jack Flaherty's role on the pitching staff.
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The start to the 2026 season has been nothing but a disaster for Jack Flaherty. There’s no other way to slice it.
The Detroit Tigers brought Flaherty back ahead of the 2025 season after they revitalized his career in 2024, shipped him off at the trade deadline, and singed him back to a two-year deal, $35 million deal.
When Flaherty signed the deal, it was a bit of a shock. He was coming off a dominant 2024 season, finishing with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while looking like the Flaherty we saw early in his Cardinals career. However, no team was willing to give the four- or five-year deal many thought he deserved.
Tigers fans were rightfully excited to get Flaherty back, but the 2025 season was rather pedestrian. The elite pitcher they saw in 2024 had settled back into pitching like a four or five starter in a rotation. There were Inconsistent starts, walks crept back up, and fluctuations in velocity made every start an unknown.
The advanced metrics pointed toward bad luck, and perhaps even a rebound for 2026. Instead, Flaherty has not only been a shell of his 2024 version, but he’s getting to the point where it’s irresponsible to start him every fifth day.
What Has Gone Wrong?
Usually when I do these type of breakdowns, there’s quite a few issues to work through that aren’t too drastic but collectively impact a players performance. For Flaherty, I think it is as simple as not throwing strikes.
Sure, there’s a lot that goes into why he is struggling to find the zone, but to keep it at a digestible level, Flaherty’s lack of command has impacted his entire plan, from pitch mix to execution. The stuff has always been there for Flaherty, and you can see it pop up in most starts.
The fastball velocity isn’t the exact same from 2024 but has not fallen off enough to become ineffective. Movement profiles on his pitches are all within the same vicinity of his best seasons, and he is still holding a strikeout rate that is high enough to be successful.
To me, it all comes down to throwing strikes. When Flaherty was at his best in 2024, we saw a career-low 2.11 BB/9. His command of his fastball allowed him to set up his breaking pitches effectively, leading to a 32% whiff rate, 30% chase rate, and a 3.17 ERA.
In 2025 his 6% walk rate moved to nearly 9%, and his swing-and-miss numbers dipped to a 27% whiff rate and 29% chase rate. The contact against Flaherty became louder, but overall the numbers were manageable and he put up a decent season.
What we have seen in 2026 has been significantly worse across the board. A 14% walk rate is in the driver’s seat of a car heading toward a cliff with the breaks cut. A complete lack of command has forced Flaherty into a corner.
We have seen it in outings this year where he does not have a feel for certain pitches and is not able to use his full pitch mix they way he needs to in order to get outs. His curveball was lethal in 2024, and he recently had an outing where he barley threw it.
Falling behind in counts early has forced Flaherty to lean more heavily on his fastball, which is an okay pitch but far from his best. The past two seasons, his fastball usage has gone up with 2026 sitting at a career-high usage.
As a result, Flaherty has thrown his curveball less than the two seasons prior. In 2024, his curveball was used as his putaway pitch 27% of the time. That number dropped to 24% in 2024, and it’s now down to only 15% in 2026.
He’s still getting a good amount of swing-and-miss on the pitch (39%), but he cannot use it often in a count where he’s behind.
To paint a picture of how often he’s behind in the count, Flaherty only reached a three-ball count 131 times in 2024 and is already at 59 times this season. That’s a 165 pace. Obviously, the more balls you throw, the higher — and quicker — your pitch count climbs.
Because of this, Flaherty has not been able to work deep into games. He either gets his pitch count up too quickly or he has to enter the zone more and more which leads to poor results and an early shower.
Of Flaherty’s 10 starts, five have been four innings or less. He’s only reached the sixth innings twice, one with four earned runs accompanying him. Most of this can be attributed to throwing too many balls. Seven of those starts included three or more walks, which he only did three times in 2024.
You don’t have to have a scout’s eye to understand that this cannot continue. The Tigers will not simply mail in the season, force Flaherty to keep making his starts, and take loss after loss. So, how long is the leash?
How Much Longer Can Flaherty Stay in the Rotation?
By now, you know the story of the Tigers’ injuries. About a week ago, they had six viable, big-league starters all on the injured list. Bullpen games became a regular, and no matter how bad Flaherty pitched, the Tigers needed him to stay in the rotation.
Now, Casey Mize is back, Justin Verlander is nearing a rehab assignment, Troy Melton has made rehab starts, and Tarik Skubal is apparently a product of a wizardry surgery that will get him back sooner than expected.
You don’t have to be a genius to understand the Tigers are getting to a point where a decision will need to be made.
Even if injuries happen elsewhere or one of the aforementioned arms has a setback, Flaherty is still not locked into a spot. Keider Montero has taken a big step this season, and Flaherty’s contract should not, and will not, keep him above Montero on the depth chart.
I think there’s a good chance Flaherty is bullpen bound. I do not think removing him from the roster and eating his money is the right move. I don’t think we would see a massive jump in velocity, but a tick or two would help. He could focus on shrinking his pitch mix and hopefully find two to three pitches he’s comfortable with locating.
The Tigers bullpen needs some help. Trying Flaherty, who still has good strikeout stuff, could be a boost. In his seven career innings as a relief pitcher, Flaherty has eight strikeouts, one walk, and seven hits allowed. The Tigers have bullpen innings available, and they should exhaust every avenue to find success before eating Flaherty’s money.
I think it is as easy as shifting Flaherty to the bullpen once Melton is back. The Tigers can use them in tandem as a way to keep Melton’s innings down and hopefully use him for the rest of the season instead of hitting an innings restriction early.
If the Tigers prefer Melton in the bullpen role he fit in last season, I still think Flaherty should be moved. Drew Anderson has looked great recently and can give them innings in the rotation until another starter is ready.
If everyone is magically healthy all at once, then we can talk about the probability of a DFA for Flaherty.
Final Thoughts
We are not talking about four or five bad starts. 10 starts is about 33% of a starting pitcher’s season output, and a 5.77 ERA, 5.04 FIP, and 1.60 WHIP is not going to cut it.
Watch the games and you will see how difficult everything looks for Flaherty. The answer to getting back on track is nowhere near where it should be.
Regardless of the Tigers’ record, they are going to do all they can to be in a position to not sell at the deadline. If you think the season is lost, that’s fine. You might be right. But people have jobs on the line. Significant money was invested into this team, and the team has the responsibility to do everything they can to be in the mix no matter what the percentages say.
Get healthy, see if Flaherty can give you something out of the bullpen, and move on at the end of the season.
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