Has José Berríos Thrown His Last Pitch as a Blue Jay?

In short order, José Berríos has gone from a starter known for his durability to someone who can’t seem to get healthy. Now, after undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery to repair a stress fracture in his elbow, is this the last we’ll see of Berríos north of the border?

A Starter for the Future

It’s important to note that the public perception of José Berríos wasn’t always this bad.

When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired the righty from the Minnesota Twins in July of 2021, things were looking up. Toronto traded away two top prospects, Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin (both of whom are still on the Twins, although they’re having VERY different seasons).

Berríos was only 27 at the time, had been an All-Star twice, had finished in the top 15 in strikeouts in the AL in each of the past three seasons, and was getting a ton of outs with 3/4 of his pitches: slurve, sinker, and changeup (remember this for later).

Doing a lot of damage was his sinker, which in 2021 had a Run Value of 14, the eighth-best among all pitchers. Initially, this seemed to be the perfect win-now move for Toronto, getting a young arm in 2021 who they’d have under contract for this season and next. But the Jays wanted him under control for longer than that.

Only four months after the trade, Toronto committed to Berríos long-term, signing him to a seven-year, $131 million contract. This was a big move for the Jays, who came agonisingly close to the playoffs in 2021, and would end up losing starters Robbie Ray and Steven Matz to free agency that offseason, although they brought in Kevin Gausman two weeks after extending Berríos.

Signing Berrios, a 27-year-old with a proven track record, to a contract until he’s 34 wasn’t a terrible idea (especially with an opt-out in 2027), but Toronto wasn’t counting on a disaster in 2022.

The First Hiccup

There were 45 qualified pitchers in MLB in 2022, and there’s a serious argument that Berríos was the very worst. He finished last in ERA (5.23), gave up the most hits (199), fourth most home runs (29), and struck out 55 fewer batters than in 2021.

Remember when I said he only got outs consistently with 3/4 of his pitches? That’s due to his four-seam fastball. It was never a great pitch (up until that point, it was league-average at best in terms of efficiency), but in 2022, it was worth a whopping -19 runs. It got ridiculous that year, with opponents recording a 55.2% hard-hit rate, resulting in 11 of his 29 home runs allowed coming off of the pitch.

Return to Normalcy

In 2023, Berríos changed his approach (more specifically, swapping the utilisation of his fastballs), and it seemed to pay off. His four-seam fastball usage went down significantly from 28.3% to 20.3%, and he relied a lot more on his sinker, which went from 25.4% to 31.5%. His sinker ended up being so effective that he threw it more than his slurve, the pitch he relied on most from 2020 to 2022.

While home runs were still an issue (he allowed 25), Berríos lowered his ERA by 1.58, decreased his WHIP by 0.23, and struck out 35 more batters. He also picked up his first career Gold Glove and increased his WAR by 3.2, going from a negative player to a positive.

More of the Same?

In a lot of ways, 2024 was more of the same. His WAR stayed the same (2.5), he allowed five fewer hits, and his ERA dropped by 0.05. But the warning signs were there. Berríos wasn’t getting nearly as many strikeouts as he had the year prior (184 to 153), and opponents were making more hard contact. His 31 home runs allowed were second-most in the AL.

There wasn’t the four-seamer to blame anymore, as he’d dropped it to 18.6% (although it still remained a terrible pitch); now it was a sum of the parts. Opponents recorded an xBA of .294 off of his sinker, and his newly introduced cutter induced only seven swings and misses all season out of the 101 he threw.

Meaning, while the standard stats tell one story, the advanced metrics tell another. His xERA, xBA, fastball velo, average exit velo, chase%, whiff%, K%, BB%, barrel%, hard-hit%, and groundball% all worsened from 2023 to 2024.

So, if we take a look at every season he’s had with the Jays up until this point (including half of 2021), there’s been three strong years (2021, 2023, and 2024), and one stinker (2022).

The Ugly

Those warning signs from 2024 showed up in 2025, and they appeared in full force. After receiving his third career Opening Day start by Toronto, Berríos would proceed to allow six runs over five innings (including three home runs) against the Orioles as the Blue Jays would lose 12-2. Results like that were all too common for Berríos in 2025, as he’d allow four or more runs in a start eight times.

Across all of his appearances, the most notable was his fastball velocity, down 1.1 MPH from the previous season. His ERA rose from 3.60 to 4.17, WHIP shot up from 1.15 to 1.30, he allowed 25+ home runs for the fourth consecutive season, and had his highest BB/9 as a Blue Jay.

When the going gets bad, however, it’s bad. Most notably in September, when after three subpar starts, Berríos lost his spot in the rotation for the first time in his career. After one bullpen appearance on Sept. 24, he was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation (his first time on the IL as a major-leaguer), and then chose to watch the Blue Jays’ historic run to the World Series away from the team.

A Lost Season

After addressing his absence, Berríos returned in 2026, hoping to rebound. That has very much not been the case. In 2026, he made four rehab starts, with his fastball hovering around 90 MPH and topping out at 92. After a 3.2-inning shmozle in Triple-A on May 3 in which he walked four, hit one, struck out one, and gave up three home runs, Toronto announced two days later that he’d be undergoing an MRI, which led to the potential for season-ending elbow surgery.

With an opt-out after this season, it seems like Toronto will have Berríos on the books until his contract expires in 2029. he was never elite, but more often than not, you’d get five or more innings and an opportunity to stay in the game.

So, will we see him back? That depends on two things.

How significant is his rehab, and what is the state of the Blue Jays?

We now know that Berríos is out until at least late 2027, but the Blue Jays as a whole will likely look very different by that point. Gausman, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Shane Bieber are all free agents after this season, meaning their starting rotation will likely have an opening. When Berríos is healthy again, he will be competing against other arms returning from injury like Bowden Francis and Cody Ponce, but there should be a spot as a #4 or #5 starter. But does Toronto see him as a viable option?

In a nutshell, Berríos is not the pitcher he once was, but he’s not Joe Schmoe. If you can find a taker for his two years remaining at $24 million dollars a season, you’d probably jump on that, but I don’t think suitors are lining up to take on the contract.

If we know Toronto, they won’t rush him, and it’s increasingly likely that he’ll be back in 2028. But if the results worsen, the leash won’t be very tight.