The Pirates’ Next Ace Is Already Thriving in the Minors
It's only been four starts, but Seth Hernandez looks utterly electric.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates entered the 2025 MLB Draft looking to answer some important questions regarding how their future core was beginning to develop. While the Pirates have proved repeatedly that they’re capable of developing high-end pitching talent, the same could not be said for their hitting depth outside of Konnor Griffin.
However, as the draft began to take shape, the Pirates saw an unexpected name left on the board: right-hander Seth Hernandez, a fireballing prep prospect that was routinely hailed as the best high school arm since Jackson Jobe in 2021.
Even though drafting yet another arm wasn’t their top priority, he was far too good to pass up. After all, most draft boards had Hernandez landing somewhere near the top three, so the fact that he was available at number six overall was quite shocking.
Fast forward nearly a year later, and the Pirates’ decision that day has aged tremendously, as Hernandez has been one of the hottest pitching prospects in the game. The beginning of his professional career has been nothing short of stellar, historic, and extremely impressive for any player, let alone a teenager.
For many, Hernandez’s start is reminiscent of the beginning of Griffin’s career last season. Both prospects were teenagers when they first touched professional baseball, and both prospects didn’t waste any time getting off to an incredibly hot start.
Let’s dive in and take a closer look at Hernandez’s early success and break down the electric tools he’s showcased so far in 2026.
Hernandez’s Phenomenal Early Showing
Despite having only made four starts to this point, Seth Hernandez has been must-watch TV every time he’s stepped on the mound.
Through his first 17 innings pitched, Hernandez has recorded an astounding 0.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, and he’s struck out 32 batters to five walks. Not only this, but he has only allowed a total of 10 baserunners through this span, as he’s been virtually unhittable.
In fact, Hernandez has only allowed one hit since April 3, as he’s currently in the midst of a truly spectacular run. Opponents are hitting .074 against him, as they’ve struggled to do virtually any damage against last year’s sixth-overall pick.
Speaking of damage, Hernandez’s opponents have struggled to even produce hard contact against him. He has yet to allow a single barrel through his first 17 professional innings, and he’s produced a hard-hit rate barely north of 36%. This is simply unheard of, as even the best pitchers allow the occasional barrel.
Out of the 10 runners Hernandez has allowed to get on base, only one has crossed the plate, leaving his left-on-base rate at a tremendous 90%. This is a very encouraging sign, as it shows that once Hernandez does pitch with baserunners, he doesn’t get overwhelmed, and he’s able to work out of these situations with relative ease.
While these marks are already quite impressive, Hernandez’s raw stuff is really where he begins to shine. His four-seamer has showcased metrics that seem like they’re straight from MLB The Show. For example, his heater is currently averaging about 17 IVB, alongside a ridiculous 14 inches of horizontal break.
In other words, not only does Hernandez’s fastball have a noticeable riding effect that’s difficult to square up, but it’s also running inside to righties like a sinker. Oh, and that’s not even mentioning that he’s able to dial it up to 102 mph, and he frequently makes it touch triple-digits.
On top of his disgusting fastball, Hernandez has showcased a phenomenal changeup with roughly 14.5 inches of horizontal break. It’s produced an eye-popping whiff rate of over 65% while also playing very well off his four-seamer. His curveball has also looked better than expected, and his disgusting slider has produced a whiff rate over 70%.
To put it simply, Hernandez possesses one of the best mixes in all of the minor leagues, as this level of dominance is unheard of for a player of his age. With this in mind, it’s no surprise that he’s gotten off to this type of start, as he looks to be a potential future ace.
Fast-Track Potential
Even though Hernandez will still be a teenager until late June, he has the unique chance to be fast-tracked through the Pirates’ system, just like Griffin was last season. With an elite pitch mix from top to bottom, Hernandez is simply too good for the lower levels, and he’s likely already extremely close to a High-A promotion.
When you watch the at-bats Single-A hitters are taking against Hernandez, you begin to see why it’s the best decision for the Pirates to move him quickly through the minor leagues. Many of these plate appearances aren’t even competitive, as he’s had plenty of at-bats that resulted in strikeouts on fewer than five pitches.
In fact, Hernandez has yet to even reach the 70-pitch mark through his first four starts, showing just how quickly he’s able to make work of Single-A hitters. Even in his most recent two starts, where he pitched five innings in each, Hernandez never tossed more than 67 pitches.
If Hernandez isn’t regularly being challenged by his opponents, he isn’t gaining much from remaining at his current level. Facing more advanced hitters sooner will expose him to the adjustments he will inevitably need to make as he climbs the ladder, which accelerates learning in a way that dominating lower levels cannot.
On top of his dominance on the field, one of the biggest takeaways I had when talking to Hernandez myself during spring training was his maturity and strength on the mental side of things. This suggests that he can handle the jump to High-A without being overwhelmed by better competition, even if there is an adjustment period.
In the lower minors, most pitchers don’t showcase the ability to consistently execute their breaking balls until Double-A, and this is something that Hernandez has already proven he can do. While he may be younger than his competition by a significant margin, his age is far from a limitation. His skills stack up well against older competition.
With these qualities already standing out, and given the success the Pirates have had in letting their younger prospects accelerate through the minor leagues recently, Hernandez has shown all of the early signs that he could (and should) do the same.
Could Hernandez Be Just Baseball’s Next No. 1 Prospect?
Now that we’ve tackled Hernandez’s raw stuff and what qualities may give him the ability to move quickly through the minor leagues, we can tackle one remaining question: Could Hernandez be Just Baseball’s next No. 1 pitching prospect?
One of the key indicators that Hernandez could reach the top of the prospect rankings is his sheer dominance up to this point. Not only are his numbers impressive on the surface, but he’s truly overwhelming opposing hitters, which is something many top pitching prospects from recent years have in common.
Age, in Hernandez’s case, is a double-edged sword. While he’s still a teenager, this only amplifies the value of his performance so far. He is effectively competing against grown men and doing so with a level of polish rarely seen in arms this young.
So far, it appears as though Hernandez’s main challengers for the title of Just Baseball’s top pitching prospect will be Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan, a pair of exciting young arms in the Mariners’ system. Defeating this duo will be a tall task, yet Hernandez could do it.
Despite positive early returns from Anderson, Hernandez’s raw stuff is a lot more exciting. While Anderson’s finesse and deception give him a higher floor, Hernandez’s pure pitchability and raw tools have a much higher ceiling if all goes to plan.
As for Sloan, he’s able to challenge Hernandez on the stuff side of things, as he’s also dialed his heater up to triple digits with exciting secondary offerings. However, with Sloan’s early struggles this season (5.65 ERA in 14.1 Double-A innings), Hernandez likely has an edge for the time being.
Ultimately, the question of whether Hernandez could become Just Baseball’s No. 1 pitching prospect is as much about projection as it is about current performance. All signs point to him having the tools, the command, and the mental makeup to ascend quickly through the minors, which isn’t something to bet against in the long run.
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Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…