NL & AL Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Who’s MLB’s Next Young Star? (Sept. 9)

There may not be a harder award race to predict in sports than MLB’s Rookies of the Year.

Unlike in the NBA or NFL, where the top draft picks enter the league right away and the best of the best are typically known from their first game, picking a rookie to win in the marathon of a 162-game MLB season is a much more difficult task.

Often, the first part of the battle is just getting the rookie to the show to make their MLB debut. Then it’s a matter of staying up. We have seen Rookies of the Year lead their race wire-to-wire, like Corbin Carroll in 2023.

Other times, a clear-cut Rookie of the Year can be harder to find, like when Jonathan India won in 2021, or even when Luis Gil ended up taking home the 2024 award in the American League.

All it takes is a few hot months for any player or pitcher to vault themselves right to the top of a Rookie of the Year race. The question now is which young stars will emerge victorious as the season comes to a close?

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be thrilling races for both AL and NL Rookie of the Year.

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2026 MLB ROTY races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current Rookie of the Year Award Odds: Top Contenders for 2026

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the Rookie of the Year races.

2026 American League Rookie of the Year Odds

With August in the rearview, the AL Rookie of the Year has settled nicely into a two-man race, with a third contestant lurking just behind.

With an absolutely stellar month of August, Parker Messick in Cleveland is putting together a performance down the stretch that is making tons of noise in an AL ROTY race that seemed all but over a few weeks ago.

With numbers that firmly support his play on the field, Messick has a 2.53 ERA, and his 3.11 FIP has amounted to 4.4 fWAR.

As we can see by the odds board above, BetMGM has not let Messick’s play go unnoticed. To put it lightly, the drop from +1400 to +240 is shocking.

Looking to the Southside’s very own, Munetaka Murakami had the best chance to steal the ROTY away from the odds leader in Detroit… at least until Messick took things to the next level this past month.

With a .828 OPS and 30 home runs in 108 games, if it weren’t for a short injury that set him back, there’s a good chance Murakami would be way closer to Kevin McGonigle in the race.

A lot of the narrative this past winter was whether or not Murakami would be able to adjust to handle high velocity in the majors, and he has more than proven wrong those who doubted him so far.

Circling back to touch on the AL odds leader, McGonigle of the Tigers, fresh off signing an eight-year, $150 million extension, has slashed .271/.372/.413 through and has a bright red Savant page to back it up.

McGonigle boasts a .351 xwOBA, good for the 83rd percentile out of qualified batters this season. Needless to say, BetMGM understands this and will reflect it in his decreasing payout price as September winds down.

2026 National League Rookie of the Year Odds

It made sense that the already somewhat proven Nolan McLean of the New York Mets would open the season as the odds leader for NL ROTY. However, with a difficult month of May, he fell far out of the ROTY race.

Yet, McLean has rebounded astoundingly in August and September, bringing his ERA down to 3.06, but it likely won’t be enough to get the job done in terms of taking home some hardware due to some NL boppers.

When Sal Stewart came hot out of the gates to start the 2026 season, we all thought he would run away with the NL ROTY. That was until he started slumping, allowing others to leap him in the odds. Overall, Stewart has had his ups and downs so far in 2026, but has landed at a rock-solid 124 OPS+ as things stand.

Even more shockingly, Sal Stewart leads the entire major leagues with 107 RBI.

In St. Louis, JJ Wetherholt has had ups and downs of his own, but he has a perfectly respectable 106 OPS+ on the season. That being said, he has accrued most of his NL rookie-leading 4.4 fWAR through elite defense at second base paired with exceptional baserunning.

Unfortunately for him, Wetherholt was placed on the 10-day IL with right wrist tendonitis on August 30. This injury has almost entirely knocked him out of the running for the ROTY award in a race that he was leading the entire season.

Notably, Carson Benge of the New York Mets went scorched earth in August and launched himself into the conversation, although he still has a sizable gap between him and the two odds leaders.

We’ve seen voters disregard gaps in WAR before if the offensive output drastically outweighs the overall value, and in this scenario we might be set up for the same outcome if Stewart continues to rake at a level Wetherholt cannot. Even if the latter is the more well-rounded player, the voters might sway in a different direction.

As the season sprints to the finish line, it’ll be interesting to see if Stewart can fend off the surging rookie competitors that surround him.

How To Follow the MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Consistently keeping tabs on the odds each week will show you how a player’s market is fluctuating, which can help you find the right time to place your future bet.

At the end of the year, BBWAA voters typically decide who wins these awards largely on stats, but narrative and team role certainly do factor in. In 2024, a great case could have been made for Jackson Merrill, but the narrative and sensation of Paul Skenes was too much for him to topple.

Last year, Nick Kurtz mashed his way to win the AL ROTY, while Drake Baldwin took advantage of a relatively weak NL field. Keeping all those aspects in mind can help you pick the right horse in this race.