The Blue Jays Need Bowden Francis To Find His Old Form

When Bowden Francis finally made the transition to the starting rotation last season, the results were impressive.

Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers back in July of 2021, Francis worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Toronto Blue Jays prior to 2024. He then made a couple of starts at the beginning of last season before missing a chunk of the year with right forearm extensor tendinitis.

When the hurler returned to the mound in June, he once again worked out of the bullpen before transitioning to a full-time starting role by the end of July, where he would end up being one of Toronto’s most effective starters in the final months of the 2024 season.

From July 29 through the end of the regular season last year, Francis made 11 appearances (10 starts) and pitched to a 1.80 ERA in 65 innings of work. That was the third-best mark among qualified starters over that stretch, trailing only Blake Snell and Chris Sale.

He might not have been striking out the world like Snell and Sale, but Francis was excellent at preventing runs by trusting his stuff and filling up the zone.

While he was still striking out a respectable 24.7% of batters faced since joining the rotation, Francis was doing an excellent job at limiting free passes with a walk rate of 3.4%. Opposing batters were hitting just .140 against him since July 29 as well. That was the second-lowest opponent batting average in the game over that stretch.

Sure, one could argue he was out performing his peripherals (3.78 FIP, 3.57 SIERA since July 29), but he was clearly comfortable in his new role. He was looking to be a foundational piece of the Blue Jay’s rotation heading into 2025 alongside José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman.

Unfortunately though, through the middle of May, Francis has simply not been the same pitcher that he was a season ago.

Stats and rankings taken prior to play on May 15.

A Bumpy Start to Francis’ 2025 Campaign

Francis, 29, has made eight starts thus far and is pitching to the tune of a 5.40 ERA across 41.2 innings. That is the eighth-highest ERA in MLB and the second-highest ERA in the AL among starters with at least 40 innings pitched.

Some peripherals even suggest that he’s been worse than his ERA indicates. No starter (min. 40 IP) has a higher FIP in MLB than Francis (6.35), and his expected ERA is the second highest in baseball as well (6.24).

Now, that’s not terribly surprising to see considering Francis’ strikeout and home run rates thus far — two key components of the FIP calculation.

Francis isn’t a strikeout artist by any stretch, but his 17% strikeout rate is one of the lowest in the game this year. That 5.5% drop in strikeout rate from a season ago is significant, especially when paired with his quality of contact metrics that are also near the bottom of MLB.

Last season, Francis did a good job of minimizing impactful contact. However, the same cannot be said in the early going of 2025.

His hard-hit rate of 50.4% is in the bottom five percent of MLB pitchers and is over a 14% jump from last season. His average exit velocity, which was around league average in 2024 at 89.1 mph, jumped two ticks this year and sits at 91.1 mph, which is in the 17th percentile.

He’s also rocking a barrel rate of 12%, which, again, is near the bottom of MLB and is a sizable uptick from his mark a season ago.

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As a result of allowing some of the loudest contact in the game, it’s no surprise to see Francis nearly pacing Major League Baseball in homers allowed with 12. That trails only Jameson Taillon (13), but Francis’ home runs per nine of 2.59 is the highest among starters with at least 40 innings pitched.

For reference, Francis allowed 17 homers all of last season to go with a HR/9 of just 1.48.

For a pitcher who allowed an opponent batting average of .195 last season and .173 in 36.1 innings the year before that, seeing that number climb to .270 this year is quite jarring. That mark is tied for the 15th highest among MLB starters (min. 40 IP) and is the seventh highest in the AL.

It’s not as if Francis is receiving a large amount of unfortunate batted-ball luck, either. In fact, his xWOBA of .393 compared to his actual wOBA of .369 suggests the results should be even worse than they actually are. It’s a similar story with his xBA (.311) and xSLG (.552) as well. Each of those expected marks are in the bottom five percent of baseball.

All in all, it’s been a discouraging start for Francis in more ways than one. Opponents are simply crushing his enter arsenal right now, and his poor results largely stem from his noticeable step back in his two primary offerings.

Both His Fastball and Splitter Have Regressed

It’s obviously early into the season, but it’s concerning to see such significant regression in Francis’ two most used pitches.

Francis’ main offering is his four-seam fastball. It’s not an overpowering pitch in terms of velocity, but it was a very effective one for him last season.

In 2024, opponents hit just .174 against his four-seam to go with a wOBA of .263. This season, the batting average against on his fastball rose to .229, and opponents are slugging .458 with a .308 wOBA against the pitch.

What’s more, the expected numbers against the pitch are as high as they’ve ever been. Francis’ four-seam has an xBA of .287, xSLG of .487, and xwOBA of .354, highlighting that the quality of contact against it has been impactful.

Opponents have also teed off on his splitter to this point, suggesting perhaps his diminished fastball performance has also negatively impacted this pitch as well.

Last season, Francis’ splitter had a batting average and slugging percentage against of .169. This year, his batting average against jumped to .282, opponents are slugging .590 against the pitch, and the splitter is yielding a whopping .421 wOBA.

As poor as those marks are, his expected numbers against the pitch are even worse (.315 xBA, .656 xSLG, .451 xwOBA). Moreover, after surrendering zero homers on his splitter a season ago, he’s already allowed four home runs off the pitch in 2025.

Even his other offerings haven’t fared well, either. His slider hasn’t been an effective offering, and his curveball, which he throws nearly 15% of the time, has a .417 opponent batting average and 1.000 slugging percentage.

Francis simply doesn’t have a pitch that he can lean upon right now, and the results are indicative of that.

How Long of a Leash Does Francis Have?

If Francis doesn’t turn it around quickly, it may force Toronto to make a change until he can get back to what was working a season ago.

He’s currently the only starter in Toronto’s rotation with an option remaining, meaning the Blue Jays could send him down to the minors to work through his struggles if he continues to struggle.

The team recently signed veteran Spencer Turnbull, who could supplant Francis in the rotation if they do choose to send him down.

Moreover, 28-year-old Easton Lucas is on the 40-man and has already made some major-leauge starts this season. Lucas was terrific in his first two outings of the year, allowing just four hits and no runs across 10.1 innings.

However, he had two blow up outings in his following two starts, resulting in a demotion back to Triple-A. He’s put together some fine starts with Buffalo and could certainly be in the mix for another call-up if Francis continues to struggle.

Another option could be shifting Francis back to the bullpen in the meantime. After all, while it’s a small sample size, he does sport a 2.83 ERA in 63.2 big-league innings as a reliever.

Doing so would open the door for one of the aforementioned names to fill his role in the rotation, or it could allow for Yariel Rodríguez, who is currently in the bullpen but started 21 games at a 4.47 ERA for the Blue Jays last season, to transition back into the rotation.

Point being, the Blue Jays have some flexibility if they wish to make a change, and Francis’ spot in the rotation is all but solidified. His performance in his upcoming outings will dictate how the Blue Jays proceed with their hurler.

A reset of some sort may be in order if Francis continue to get hit around.

Closing Thoughts

While it hasn’t been a roaring start for the Blue Jays, it hasn’t been a terrible start, either.

Their offense has been league average (14th in wRC+ and OPS, 15th in wOBA), and it’s a similar story for their bullpen (17th in ERA, eighth in FIP).

It’s really been their starting rotation that’s held them back the most. Toronto’s starters rank 26th in ERA (4.51) and FIP (4.79). The only teams worse than the Blue Jays in those departments are the Orioles, Marlins, Rockies, and Athletics.

And yet, they’re currently second in the AL East with a record of 21-21 and are winners of five of their last six, including a sweep on the road against the first-place Seattle Mariners.

This team has the pieces to hang around the postseason conversation as the season progresses. But they an ill afford to wait for Francis to figure things out in the rotation, especially when he has an option remaining and there are internal alternatives that the ball club can turn to.

He can be a key rotation piece when things are clicking on the mound, but Francis is regressing at an inopportune time for the Blue Jays.