The White Sox!!

What a win! Things looked bleak early as the Astros took a 4-0 lead after Bryse Wilson went way longer than I thought he would. Luckily, the White Sox mounted a comeback and grabbed a 5-4 lead. Then, rain came down, and they called the game early, so we didn’t have to sweat the White Sox bullpen any further. White Sox ML (+180) was a massive success.

Today, we have to lay some juice, but I believe it will be worth it.

2025 Record: 30-19 (+12.85 Units)

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Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Astros: Ronel Blanco (5.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, in 28.1 IP)

Brewers: Tobias Myers (5.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in 7 Innings)

Going through this board had me questioning my projections. I noticed that Tobias Myers’ lines projected a 3-4 inning outing, as his hits allowed line was low, as was his earned runs. His strikeout line was lower than I thought it would be as well. I contacted our Brewers writers, and they feel confident this will be a normal start for him.

He started the year on the IL and debuted against the Giants on April 24th. He threw four innings, but more importantly, they let him go 82 pitches. I was worried about my projection because he only went two innings in his next start and was removed after 49 pitches. Then, he threw an inning in relief on May 2.

However, I’ve been told by our Brewers writer on staff, Joey Peterson, that “It doesn’t sound like he has any restrictions today. I believe his inning of relief was to continue getting him some work since he only threw 49 on Wednesday, but that was only because he couldn’t hit the strike zone. From what I’ve heard it should be a normal start today.” “I can tell you with certainty, though, his Wednesday outing was a benching and not a workload restriction.”

After watching Tobias Myers’ media presser after that last start, that information seems correct.

Similar to benching a couple position players this weekend, Pat Murphy said he was “sending a message” to Tobias Myers by pulling him after 2 spotty innings.

“This is how we're going to do it,” Murphy said.

Here’s what Myers said postgame of the short start: pic.twitter.com/2XNbiRFHVd

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) May 1, 2025

He was removed from that start because he couldn’t throw a strike, not because management limited him. That inning of relief he threw was only to get him some more work after only throwing 49 pitches. So, if we treat this as a typical workload, all of his props show value to the over.

He was over this line in 18 of his 26 starts last season (69%). He even went over this line in his first start this year, only going four innings. While he has performed better in Milwaukee in his career thus far, he is still over this line in seven of his 13 home starts (54%).

We just faded the Astros’ offense on the road against a right-hander, and I still stand by that analysis that they are a below-average offense in this spot. But it’s all about the numbers, and this hits line is too low. They had no problems with Bryse Wilson yesterday, scattering nine hits over 4.2 innings without Yordan Alvarez or Isaac Paredes.

Myers allowed 126 hits in 138 innings last year, so if we project him under a hit per inning against an average offense, we are way over 3.5 hits here. I also like the angle of him throwing more strikes in this one after he was removed for losing his command. He will be attacking the zone today, which should leave us more opportunities to put good swings on it.

As I write, I’m already seeing this line move, as the market appears to agree that this is a normal start. Considering that information, there are many ways to pivot if you aren’t a fan of laying the juice.

I make over 3.5 hits -200, so at -135, I see a ton of value, and I would take this to -165. I project 5.1 hits for Myers, so I am fine taking over 4.5 hits at +125 or better. I’m not a fan of parlays, but since the projections are correlated, you can parlay over 3.5 hits with over 1.5 earned runs, or take over 1.5 earned runs up to -130 straight.

I’m not projecting him to get destroyed, so I don’t see value in the Astros winning this game. Projecting a five-inning workload, my earned run projection is 2.4, and my hits projection is 5.1. I also project him for 4.9 strikeouts.

Considering my hits projection shows the most value (-200), I went in that direction, but I endorse any of the above pivots.

UPDATE: This line moved too much, too quickly, so it will not be counted as an official play on my record. My only goal is to win together, so there is no point in counting something that not everyone can bet on.

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