The streak lives on!

We completed the sweep by cashing both of our strikeout props on Sunday. We took Jackson Jobe under 4.5 strikeouts against the White Sox, and he ended with four. Bowden Francis had six strikeouts against the Mets, quickly clearing his 4.5 line. I didn’t see any value on the board yesterday, but I do today.

We have two picks in the same game; one is a player prop, and the other is a team total. Let’s stay hot!

2025 Record: 13-3 (+9.27 Units)

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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 4:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

White Sox: Shane Smith (3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 5.2 Innings)

Guardians: Ben Lively (6.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 9.1 Innings)

Yes, the White Sox are bad. But BetMGM continues to price them like the team they were last year when that’s not the case. Bettors also seem to believe this White Sox team will go 2-160 with how much money is being poured on the Guardians today. I’m not taking the White Sox ML today, but with how Ben Lively has looked so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won outright.

Stuff+ is a FanGraphs metric that grades a pitch’s physical characteristics. “Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.” Over the years, Stuff+ has proven to be one of the most predictive stats for evaluating future pitcher performance. It makes sense: the better the stuff, the more likely a pitcher will perform.

241 pitchers in the bullpen and rotation have thrown at least five innings this season. Ben Lively ranks 240th in Stuff+, just ahead of Randy Dobnak, who was DFA’d by the Twins after 5.1 innings of work this season. Dobnak pitched to a 1.69 ERA in those five innings, but I believe the Twins saw the writing on the wall when predicting his future performance.

Vallente Bellozo and Joey Estes are similar pitchers in Stuff+ this year. Estes has five strikeouts and a 15.43 ERA through seven innings this year. Bellozo has performed, pitching a 2.25 ERA with six strikeouts in eight innings. With an xERA of 6.57, Bellozo should be a good fade candidate moving forward.

Ben Lively’s best attribute is his ability to keep the ball off the clean part of the barrel. He was in the top 25% of pitchers last year. That barrel rate has nearly doubled this year, and if that continues, he’s in for a rough season.

He faced the 41-win White Sox three times last year, tossing 13.2 innings to a 3.95 ERA, but only recorded ten strikeouts. That White Sox team struck out plenty of times and could never hit, but this White Sox team has been over 2.5 runs in five of nine games so far this season. It’s not a good offense, but it’s better than last year’s.

Over Ben Lively’s three starts against them, he only went over 4.5 strikeouts once. He averaged 3.33 strikeouts per outing against them. Against the current White Sox lineup, they have posted a .286 batting average with an elite .454 xwOBA and a minisucle 12.5% strikeout rate. Only Patrick Corbin has worse numbers against the Cubs on today’s slate.

Ben Lively has not been over 4.5 strikeouts this season yet, averaging 3.5 per game. He faced the Royals and Padres. The Padres had barely seen him, but shoutout Lively for getting to four strikeouts. The Royals had seen him plenty, and he only had three in five innings. You’d think the White Sox strike out more than those teams, and you’d be right about the Padres, but the White Sox strike out slightly less than the Royals have this year against righties.

Ben Lively is rarely over this number. In 2024, he went under 4.5 strikeouts in 17 of his 29 starts (59%). He made 14 starts at home last year, going under 4.5 strikeouts in ten (71%). His strikeout rate at home last year was just 17.2% compared to a 20.2% strikeout rate on the road. It makes sense: Progressive Field is ranked as the 8th hardest stadium to rack up strikeouts.

In Lively’s last eight home starts, he’s been under 4.5 strikeouts in every single one, averaging just 2.8 strikeouts per game.

We aren’t just taking the White Sox not to strike out; they should put up at least three runs in this game. For a reason, Lively’s 1.5 earned run line is -160; he’s been over that line in 15 of his last 19 starts (79%). In 2024 at home, he was over this line in ten of 14 starts (71%). He allowed three runs to the White Sox last year in his only home start. Two of Lively’s three starts against the White Sox last year resulted in three runs.

The top of the lineup should do some damage against Lively. Mike Tauchman, Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn are a combined 6-13 (.461 AVG) with two doubles and a home run. I’m sick and tired of Luis Robert. I’ve penciled him in as one of Ben Lively’s strikeouts today. If he does anything good, that’s a bonus.

The Guardians’ bullpen had an off-day yesterday, and while they are still a great bullpen, the cracks are starting to show. Cleveland’s bullpen had a 3.00 ERA and a 4.13 FIP to start the year. They rank 19th in WHIP this season. Still great, but not unbeatable. It’s also a bullpen this White Sox squad has seen countless times being a divisional foe.

I’m projecting Ben Lively at 4.0 strikeouts, giving us a 60% chance of hitting his under 4.5 strikeouts. I would take his under 4.5 strikeouts up to -130. I also project the White Sox for 3.7 runs today, making the true line closer to -170. I would take the White Sox team total up to -150. Testing the heater with a double dip on the White Sox… what could go wrong?

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