Six Bold Predictions for the Cincinnati Reds in 2025
For the Reds to make it to the playoffs, a lot needs to go right. Here are six bold predictions that can lead to that postseason berth.
It is my pleasure to write that the 2025 regular season is upon us in Cincinnati.
Finally.
As someone who has spent their entire life watching the Reds, I am as excited as I have been for a Reds season in a long time, maybe in my entire 24 years of life.
The industry is a bit split on the Reds for 2025. You can find projections anywhere from 75 wins all the way up to 90 wins for this team, depending on who you are talking to. I think, as fans of a small-market team, we should be excited for the upside that comes with this roster heading into the year.
The Reds have a true superstar in Elly De La Cruz and hired one of the best managers of our generation in Terry Francona. But, for the Reds to make it to October, they will need more than just those two to be at the top of their game.
I view bold predictions as outcomes that do have a small possibility of occurring but are not necessarily likely to happen. I have six bold predictions here that I believe will ultimately lead the Reds to the postseason in 2025.
Let’s get into it.
1. Three Players Will Hit 30 Home Runs
Dating back to 2002, there have only been three seasons that featured three 30-homer players for the Reds. 2025 will be the fourth.
Shocker, Elly De La Cruz will be one of the three. For the Reds to reach the postseason, Elly has to take that next leap. That leap includes being a guy that hits 30 homers consistently. After hitting 25 bombs last season, 30 is certainly in reach.
I also predict that Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hit 30 home runs for two reasons. First, he has grown-man strength. Second, he doesn’t walk. CES had a 5.8% walk rate in his 63-game stint in the big leagues in 2023. That 63-game stint featured 13 home runs as well.
After a lost season in 2024, I think CES will have a bounce-back year. And for a guy that swings a lot and has some serious power, running into 30 long balls is certainly on the table.
The third player to reach this milestone is a bit more in question than the first two. I see four viable candidates: Jeimer Candelario, Austin Hays, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.
Not one of those four guys in consideration has eclipsed the 30 home run mark in their career. But, with all four being bounce-back candidates and displaying power throughout their careers, I think one of them can do it.
If Austin Hays’ 2023 All-Star season had been played exclusively in Great American Ball Park, he would have hit 28 home runs, according to Baseball Savant’s Expected Home Runs by Park.
Jeimer Candelario needs to show why he was given a sizable contract (for Cincinnati’s standards) and provide some thump in the middle of this lineup. A motivated, determined Candelario could certainly eclipse 30 pumps.
Spencer Steer hit 20 home runs in 2024 in what was considered a down year. His OPS dropped almost 100 points from his great 2023 season that saw him go yard 23 times while posting an .820 OPS.
In his impressive 2023, Matt McLain slugged .507 and hit 16 home runs across 89 games. I’m not saying it is fair to expect McLain to produce those numbers over a full 162. But, it tells me that in his best years, he will have a shot at hitting 30. For the Reds to accomplish their goals in 2025, they need McLain to have one of those years.
With Spencer Steer starting the year banged up (even though he is still active on the Opening Day roster) and Austin Hays hitting the IL with a calf strain, I am removing those two from consideration.
I have long been a Matt McLain believer and will continue with that. Calling my shot, McLain will go yard 30 times this season.
2. A New Saves Leader
This prediction became a little watered down when Terry Francona announced that Alexis Díaz would begin the season on the IL with a hamstring strain. But, I have been feeling this way throughout the entire offseason.
Díaz had a down 2024 coming off of a 2023 where he posted an 8.38 ERA in the final month of the season. I am willing to admit I have always been a Díaz skeptic when it came to him being viewed as a legit closer in this league, but the results are starting to back that skepticism.
So, who will the new saves leader be? I certainly know who I want it to be.
To begin the season, I am sure we will see a mixture of guys getting the ninth inning to see if someone fully takes control of that spot with Díaz out. Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow will get their shots, as they each have ninth-inning experience. But, they will not be this team’s saves leader.
That will be Graham Ashcraft.
After three seasons as a starter, and about two seasons of me begging for it, Ashcraft is making the move to the bullpen. I think this can be a key move that we look back on at the end of the season and point to as a driving force for the Reds’ playoff push.
We have seen Ashcraft flirt with 100 mph cutters in his time as a starter, and there is no reason for him not to be sitting triple digits in shortened spurts.
Not everything is about speed anymore, but the Reds haven’t had a guy throwing fuzz out of the pen for quite a while. When you add the expected tick up in velocity on the cutter to Ashcraft’s slider that put him in the 86th percentile in breaking ball run value last year, you can see the vision.
And that vision can prove to be a new lockdown closer in Cincinnati.
3. New Blood Will Lead to a Top-10 Bullpen
This vision may be a bit tougher to see, but roll with me.
I have already laid out why Graham Ashcraft can be a great addition to this ‘pen. And I do expect him to take control of the ninth inning. But, the Reds need more production from this bullpen, and I think they can get it from four other newcomers to the back end.
This offseason, the Reds added veteran relief pitchers Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow. Although Rogers is a bit more accomplished, both of these pitchers bring a stability that is needed in this bullpen.
Additionally, both have closer experience, which will be a nice fallback plan if my prediction for Ashcraft doesn’t come true (although I am sure it will, because why wouldn’t it?) and Díaz spends extended time on the IL.
The other two aren’t on the active roster yet, but I expect them to reach the big league club by the middle of the year.
Zach Maxwell and Luis Mey can bring some real juice to this ‘pen. Both are going to start the year in the minors but have MLB-ready stuff. It is all about reining in the walks.
Maxwell and Mey are both absolute flame throwers, and if they can manage the walks throughout the first month or two of the season, we could see them both become key pieces of this bullpen down the stretch.
A lot needs to go right, but with the veteran experience of Rogers and Barlow and the upside of Ashcraft, Maxwell, and Mey, I believe these five can lead the Reds to sneak into the top-10 bullpens in all of baseball.
4. Nick Lodolo Will Be an All-Star
2025 is going to be the year of Nick Lodolo.
A former top pitching prospect, Lodolo has shown flashes of being the frontline starter that everyone thought he could be when the Reds drafted him seventh overall in 2019.
The biggest problem throughout the lefty’s career has been health. In his three seasons as a big leaguer, Lodolo has yet to top 116 innings. The Reds need that to change.
This spring, Lodolo looked great. In just over 14 innings, the TCU product posted a 2.45 ERA and has struck out 16 batters.
For an injury-riddled player, it would be outrageous to predict 200 innings and an ERA below three. But to predict him to put up a career high in innings and a career low in ERA? We can do that.
I think 150 innings with an ERA between 3.30 and 3.50 is on the table. He has the talent to do it. I’m ready for the Nick Lodolo show to hit Atlanta for the Midsummer Classic, and you should be too.
5. Terry Francona Will Win Manager of the Year
With these predictions being thought of as paths to the postseason, this outcome could be categorized as likely.
If Francona were to bring home this award in 2025, it would be his fourth Manager of the Year Award. The Cincinnati Reds needed to move in a different direction from David Bell, and they certainly did that by bringing in a future Hall of Fame manager.
For these predictions to happen, it will be because of skill, a little bit of luck along the way, and the skipper putting his guys in situations to succeed. I can assure you the Reds have the right man at the helm to do just that.
If Francona leads a turnaround that sees this ball club make the jump from a 77-win team to a postseason squad that is pushing 90+ wins, the award should be his. And I think it will be.
6. Elly De La Cruz Will Be the National League MVP
Hollywood in Cincinnati.
Elly De La Cruz has more than just the skill it takes to win an MVP. He’s got the swagger too. A bit of swagger is needed, in my opinion, especially when he’s going up against someone who just won the MVP as a DH and is going to return to the mound this season (maybe?).
There has been a clear change in the setup in the box for De La Cruz, and this spring, it produced great results. Over 54 plate appearances, the 23-year-old is hit .409 with a 1.291 OPS.
Is that going to continue for 162 regular season games? Obviously not. But, does it give me some confidence that Elly is going to make a jump from his 2024 season, in which he hit .259 with an .809 OPS? Yes, it does.
I really do believe De La Cruz is going to go nuclear this season. The question is, what production is needed from him to win the MVP? Let’s throw some exact numbers at you.
In 2025, I predict Elly De La Cruz will win the National League MVP while slashing .284/.369/.535 while hitting 37 home runs and stealing 62 bags. He will also finish the season as a Gold Glove Award finalist as shortstop, solidifying himself as the MVP.
Now, will all of these bold predictions come true? Probably not. Although that would be awesome. The point is, I do not believe any of these outcomes are impossible. And not every one has to happen for the Reds to make it to the postseason. But they are the path.
Multiple guys being a threat to hit 30 pumps, Lodolo being in the conversation to be an All-Star, this bullpen flirting with top-10 status, and Elly being at the top of the MVP conversation can all be huge factors in Cincinnati’s quest for a postseason berth.
At the beginning of this piece, I said these predictions are made with the expectation that they can lead the Reds to the postseason, and I do believe that will happen. The 2025 Cincinnati Reds will win 89 games, and October baseball will finally return to the Queen City.
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