Will Benson Is in a Make-or-Break Year With the Reds

Will Benson stands out on a baseball field. A 6-foot-5, lean 230, athletic specimen that you can tell has the tools to be a successful player. Those same tools and build are what led to him being drafted 14th overall by Cleveland in 2016.

Due to a 40-man roster crunch, Benson was traded to the Cincinnati Reds shortly before the 2023 season. The Reds had room in their outfield, and Benson needed a place where he could spread his wings, get regular at-bats, and prove to an organization he was a starting-caliber player.

After struggling mightily out of the gate, Benson was demoted to Triple-A, only to return to the big leagues looking like a different player.

Benson finished 2023 slashing .275/.365/.498 with 11 home runs and a 127 wRC+, leading many to predict a monstrous 2024. Well, his 2024 was the opposite. Across 128 games, Benson slashed .187/.274/.376, good for a 75 wRC+, all while striking out 39.7% of the time.

From a breakout to a bust, Benson’s confusing first two seasons have left many Reds fans writing him off as minor league depth. While I think they are closer to right than wrong, the tools will always leave a sliver of hope.

As enticing as he may be, Cincinnati cannot keep waiting and hoping Benson puts it all together. An ascending (hopefully) team will need to move on sooner or later, which makes 2025 a make-or-break year for Will Benson.

What Has Gone Wrong for Will Benson?

Let’s go ahead and address the biggest issue and what might ultimately determine if Benson is a 20+ home run hitter or in the KBO in three seasons — the strikeouts. Benson has struck out an alarming 35.5% of the time since entering the league, with his strikeout rate increasing from 2023 to 2024.

If there’s such a thing as good news with strikeouts, it’s that Benson does not chase. You know the videos of Javy Baez swinging at a slider four feet out of the zone and in the dirt? You will not see that with Benson. In fact, his eye for the zone is a reason why his value can still be positive, but more on that later.

Benson’s issue has been making contact. His 39.7% strikeout rate and 39% whiff rate were both hovering at the bottom of the league in 2024, and the reason was swinging and missing at balls in the strike zone. Last season, Benson’s in-zone contact rate was 68.4%, significantly below the league average of 82%.

When you are swinging and missing so much more than the average and your weakness is pitching…in the strike zone…red alerts start to go off. A player like Benson, whose power carries a significant portion of his value, needs to be taking advantage of mistake pitches instead of swinging through them.

Thanks to our friends at Baseball Savant, we can see Benson’s struggles in the zone from last season. As a lefty bat, the only two areas that are not alarming are right down the middle and middle-inside, areas batters should perform well. I will say, his 2023 numbers were better but still concerning.

To paint this picture further, let’s pull up Benson’s home runs by pitch location. The graphic below will show the number of home runs hit by pitch location in 2023 (left) and 2024 (right).

So, Benson is getting to his power on obvious mistake, right-down-the-middle pitches but is not doing enough damage on more competitive pitches. If he continues to not only swing and miss on the edges of the zone, but also does not produce when he does make contact, he’ll see fewer and fewer pitches in areas where he can produce.

Will Opportunity Knock?

Cincinnati entered the offseason with an obvious need in the outfield. A roster full of average(ish) platoon bats was upgraded by only the addition of Austin Hays, who is coming off of injury. The recent reports of Spencer Steer’s shoulder injury could potentially open another door to a roster spot.

Most likely, the Reds will, if healthy, have Steer, Hays, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and potentially Stuart Fairchild on the Opening Day roster. That leaves Blake Dunn, Rece Hinds, Jacob Hurtubise, and Benson as the 40-man outfielders not on the roster, with Hurtubise and Benson as the only lefties.

Benson will need to stand on his head in order to win a job out of spring training. If injury hits, the Reds could get Benson on the roster only if the injury involves Fraley or Friedl, both lefty bats. Oh yeah, don’t forget, Benson is a platoon-only player, which does not help his case.

New manager Terry Francona is not anti-platoon by any means. Although, I think he will lean into platoons not because of how much he likes them but instead because of the talent on the roster. Benson, a career .772 OPS against LHP, has struggled to an unplayable .461 OPS against righties. If Steer (or Hays) cannot go on Opening Day, I would imagine Fairchild is a lock, and the added player could be a righty outfielder or another player, moving Espinal or Lux into the outfield.

I’m sure you are starting to see the issue here. Benson’s profile, a power-only, high-strikeout, poor defending platoon bat, is not the easiest to fit on a roster in a bench role. In order for Benson to truly bring value, he’ll need an opportunity for everyday at-bats against righties, either via injury or if he earns it with a strong performance.

Final Thoughts

As negative as this article has been, there’s still a chance Benson turns out to be a valuable player for the Reds. A player who lifts the ball like Benson, playing in Great American Ball Park, who can also add speed, is intriguing enough to have a chance. However, this is the final chance.

Cincinnati is trending toward better baseball, and as teams break away from their rebuild rosters, fringe players need to be parted with. Fans often attach themselves to any player that flashed some hope during down years instead of realizing an upgrade is needed. Benson has an infectious smile and contagious energy, but hitting a baseball is far more important.

Lastly, starting Benson in the minors is a good thing, in my opinion. Let him get everyday at-bats in an environment where he can hopefully build some confidence and square up his timing to be ready for a call-up. More likely than not, Benson will be called upon this season, and he needs to show his value quickly – or he’ll be looking for a new team.