Justin Wrobleski Could Be the Next Big Pitching Prospect

Year after year, new prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers system emerge as premier talents. Many were found as diamonds in the rough. Justin Wrobleski, a 23-year-old left-hander entering his third minor league season, could be the next top prospect in line for L.A.

Background

Wrobleski went to Sequoyah High School in Canton, Georgia before he began his college career pitching at Clemson in 2019. From there, he transferred to the State Junior College of Florida, Manatee–Sarasota where he suited up in 2020 as a two-way player. Finally, he transferred to Oklahoma State and was only a pitcher in the 2021 season, posting a 4.20 ERA in 40 2/3 innings.

Two months prior to the 2021 draft, Wrobleski had Tommy John surgery, causing him to fall to the 11th round. The Dodgers saw the potential he could have once healthy and took him despite the surgery. Less than a year after he was drafted, Wrobleski made his professional debut in the Arizona Complex League, and he has been excellent since.

Last year was Wrobleski’s first chance to take on a full starting workload as a pro, and he was sent to High-A straight out of camp. He was the ace of the Great Lakes Loons staff and wound up throwing 102 1/3 innings, the fourth most in the Dodgers system, with a 2.90 ERA and 3.22 FIP.

Justin Wrobleski, my No. 20 #Dodgers prospect, was excellent tonight in the High-A Midwest League Championship Series

4.0 IP
3 H
0 R
0 BB
6 K
11 swings and misses
55 P / 39 S

Wrobleski was routinely hitting 97 mph on his fastball and has a 1.93 ERA in two playoff starts pic.twitter.com/0RJ5iqqkpU

— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) September 20, 2023

Repertoire

One of Wrobleski’s best attributes is his deep mix of pitches. He throws six different pitches at least 5% of the time: four-seam (46%), slider (18%), changeup (13%), cutter (5%), two-seam (5%), and curveball (5%).

His four-seam fastball has a very unique profile. It sits at 94-95 mph while topping out at 97 mph. That sounds great, but Wrobleski averages just 5 feet of extension, which makes his velocity play down. However, he gained an extra tick or two of velocity over the course of the season, which is important for the pitch to play well. Wrobleski has good command of it, landing it for strikes 70% of the time last year.

The slider is Wrobleski’s best secondary, sitting in the mid-80s with solid command. Batters had just a .614 OPS against it last year. He can use it both early and late in counts with ease.

His changeup is a good weapon against righties with 15 inches of horizontal break and a 57% groundball rate against it. Wrobleski mixes in his 89-mph cutter, 91-mph two-seam and 83-mph curveball for extra looks, with the curve often coming in two-strike counts.

Makeup

Wrobleski commands everything in his arsenal at an above-average level and ran a 66% overall strike rate last year. He had a 26% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate, both solid clips.

If you take out Wrobleski’s first four starts last year, as he was settling in, he had a 2.16 ERA from May through the end of the season. He allowed only four home runs in 87 2/3 innings, posting a 46% groundball rate and 1.21 WHIP.

Wrobleski likely won’t be posting massive strikeout numbers once he reaches the majors, but he has consistently shown the ability to fill quality innings and limit hard contact. Good command and placement of his pitches prevent baserunners and damage against him.

Justin Wrobleski with an excellent Double-A debut tonight:

5.0 IP
3 H
1 ER
1 BB
6 K
70 P / 47 S

Wrobleski, my No. 12 #Dodgers prospect, could be a big breakout candidate this season pic.twitter.com/qaynL31Ads

— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) April 6, 2024

Outlook

This spring, Wrobleski was the starting pitcher for the Dodgers’ Spring Breakout game and looked great. He was promoted to Double-A to start the season, where he was the opening night starter for the Tulsa Drillers and got his season started well with five innings of one-run ball.

Wrobleski is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this offseason, so he will have to be added to the Dodgers’ 40-man roster soon. It isn’t out of the question that he could make his MLB debut this season if he continues finding success in Double-A. His advanced pitchability means he could be fast-tracked if the Dodgers need innings filled down the stretch.

Ranked No. 14 on Just Baseball’s preseason Dodgers prospect list and No. 12 on my preseason list over at Dodgers Digest, Wrobleski could find himself in the top ten of the system quickly this year. He has a good chance to remain a starter at the MLB level, and could even become a No. 3 at his ceiling.

Wrobleski has a unique and intriguing profile that could become widely known very soon.