Yandy Díaz is Primed for a Bounce-Back in 2025

In 2023 Yandy Díaz reached new heights in his big league career, and it suddenly looked as though the Tampa Bay Rays had not only produced another diamond in the rough, but one of the best hitters in all of Major League Baseball.

In 600 plate appearances across 137 games that season, Díaz posted a .330/.410/.522 slash line with 22 HR and 78 RBI.

All of this culminated in a 163 wRC+, which was the fifth-highest mark in baseball, trailing only Shohei Ohtani (179 wRC+), Ronald Acuña Jr. (171 wRC+), Corey Seager (171 wRC+) and Mookie Betts (163).

He also posted a 5.0 fWAR that season, placing him within the top 20 hitters in MLB (T-17th), ahead of the likes of superstars like José Ramírez (24th at 4.6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (35th at 4.1) and Bryce Harper (46th at 3.5) amongst numerous others.

When you consider the fact Díaz was a poor defender in 2023, posting a -5 OAA with 0 DRS, a 5.0 win season made his bat look even better.

However, in 2024 he took a fairly significant step back from a season in which he received MVP consideration.

It wasn’t a bad year by any means, however 14 HR, 65 RBI, a .281/.341/.414 with a 120 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR doesn’t scream superstar like his career-year did the season the prior.

That being said, it’s not time to panic though or lose hope in Díaz’s stardom, as there are multiple reasons why a bounce back is in the cards for the Rays’ first baseman in 2025.

We’ve Been Here Before with Díaz

When trying to determine whether or not Díaz is capable of a bounce-back, we have to remember the fact he’s not far removed from a bounce-back already.

While he was solid in a more reserve-type role in 2018 with Cleveland and 2019 with the Rays, Díaz really broke onto the scene in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

That year, he hit .307 with an .814 OPS and a 139 wRC+ in 138 plate appearances. He also excelled from an approach standpoint as well with a walk rate and strikeout rate both in the 96th percentile of league hitters.

The following year though, Díaz reverted back to a more league average hitter, with his wRC+ falling to 110. He regressed to a .256 hitter, his OPS dropped down to .740, his walk rate dropped by nearly four percent and his K-rate rose three percent.

Come 2022 though, he flipped the script once again returning to the All-Star-caliber performer we saw just two years prior.

His average climbed to .296, his OPS returned to over .800 (.824) and his wRC+ rose to new heights with his first season climbing above the 140-mark (145 wRC+).

Díaz’s approach also returned to the world-class outputs we saw in his breakout, with both his K% and BB% returning to the upper 90th percentiles (98th percentile K% and 97th percentile walk rate).

He also saw newfound success in quality of contact, as he suddenly developed into one of the league’s more prolific hard hitters.

Díaz’s hard-hit rate increased from a mediocre 47th percentile rate of 40.6% all the way into the 91st percentile with a clip of 49.0%.

So not only did he bounce back to his old self, he developed into a whole different type of hitter.

Looking at the bounce back opportunity ahead of him in 2025, he’ll definitely be working off a better baseline season this time around than he did in 2022.

He’s no longer an average looking hitter that struggled to make hard-contact. Rather entering 2025, he’ll be fresh off a 120 wRC+ season with strong batted ball data and overall disciplined approach at the plate.

The Underlying Metrics are Still Favorable

I’ve touched on the fact that the underlying metrics still look favorable for the 33-year-old Díaz after last season, even if they weren’t quite at the career-high levels from 2023.

Batted-Ball Data

We’ve touched on the fact that since 2022 season Díaz has been a top-notch producer of hard contact, as his hard-hit rate has never dipped below the 89th percentile in the past three seasons.

Moreover, even though his hard-hit rate dipped in 2024, the fact he still hits harder than 89% of the league indicates there’s no reason to sound the alarm yet.

While Díaz’s hard contact may have taken an over five percent dip from 2023 to 2024, he wasn’t suddenly seeing a spike in weak contact because of it.

As a matter of fact he actually produced less weak contact in 2024, and only mildly (less than two percent) in both solid and barrel contact.

The fact that the issue surrounding Díaz’s contact in 2024 was getting on top of the ball at a higher rate, means a slight adjustment in the box could return him back to hard-hit rates over 50%.

Also, looking at just sheer contact rates, Díaz was excellent at taking advantage of pitches in the zone.

He actually improved his in-zone contact rate (Z-contact%) from his career year in 2023, posting a 92.6% Z-contact rate in 2024, up 2.5%.

This placed him 10th in all of baseball, in and amongst some of the best contact-oriented hitters the major leagues have to offer.

The Disciplined Approach Still Remains

One of the key aspects to Díaz’s game is his ability to limit strikeouts. Since his initial 2020 breakout campaign he’s always managed to remain above the 80th percentile mark in K-rate.

One big reason for this is his overall eye at the plate, thanks to his chase and whiff numbers never dropping below that 80th percentile either since 2020.

Looking at his walk rates as well, it’s reasonable to believe that 2024 might have been an anomaly considering how high they’ve been throughout his career up to that point.

Until his 52nd percentile BB% of 8.1% last season, Díaz had always sat above a 10.5% clip since his initial 2020 breakout, placing him no lower than the 79th percentile in any given season during that time.

Díaz Was a Product of His Environment in 2024

Let’s shift gears a bit here from looking at Díaz alone and focus on the team in Tampa Bay that’s been surrounding him.

Díaz has traditionally been the leadoff option for Tampa the past two seasons, seeing 523 plate appearances in the one-hole in 2023 and 520 plate appearances there in 2024.

In 2023, the leadoff spot was unequivocally the highest producing spot in the Rays’ lineup, with an .896 OPS.

However, there was plenty of quality throughout the rest of that lineup as well, with two additional spots seeing OPS totals also above .800 as well as just two sub-.700 OPS spots in that lineup.

There was plenty of quality hitting after Díaz, as well as enough output at the bottom of the order to the set the table for him when the lineup flipped.

Fast forward to last season, and there was a stark contrast in the quality surrounding Díaz.

Not only was there just one other spot above a .740 OPS besides the leadoff spot, there were only four total spots above a .700 OPS in general, with two sub-.600 spots to make matters worse.

It’s easy to see why Díaz would have such a hard time producing at high rate when the rest of the lineup couldn’t really get anything going for the most part.

A big reason for this can be pointed back to the deals that sent the prolific bats of Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena elsewhere at the deadline.

Looking at 2025 though, the Rays suddenly have some more hope again beyond Díaz in that lineup.

Former top prospect Junior Caminero is set play his first full season in the majors next year, fresh off some electrifying performances in the LIDOM Dominican Winter League this offseason.

Brandon Lowe should be good to go after a being a bit banged up last season, and is more than capable of being a solid 120 wRC+ contributor when healthy.

The newly signed Ha-Seong Kim will debut at some point early on in the regular season, and will certainly provide a major offensive upgrade over the likes of Taylor Walls at shortstop.

Then there’s young promising major league talent like Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe who will all likely have more of a role to play on this team in 2025 and should only get better with more experience under their belt.

The call-up of a polished blue-chip prospect in Carson Williams looms as well, as he has the potential to be yet another solid contributor to this Rays’ lineup.

To make a long story short, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay’s offense being less productive than it was last season, which for a run-producing offensive piece like Díaz, could make all the difference in the world.

Concluding Thoughts

At the end of the day, 2025 is looking like the perfect storm for a Yandy Díaz bounce back campaign.

He’s not far removed from already proving he’s capable of bouncing back from a down year.

He also has a solid base to bounce back from, as both his surface level numbers and underlying metrics were not bad by any means in 2024.

All the while, the Rays lineup looks poised to perform better than it did in 2025, whether that be through new additions to the roster or potential breakout’s from some of their rising talent.

Now is it realistic to immediately expect another 163 wRC+ and 5.0 fWAR season from Díaz? No.

However, is it far-fetched to think we could see a happy medium between his 163 wRC+ in 2023 and his 120 wRC+ in 2024? Perhaps a 140 wRC+? No, not at all.

Because when it comes down to it, it’s hard to doubt a player with capabilities that Díaz possesses.