How Long Will the Rays Hold On to Their Veteran Bats?

Let's break down what Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe have to offer the Rays and when they could potentially be moved.

Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Brandon Lowe after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the Detroit Tigers Comerica Park.
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 6: Yandy Diaz (L) #2 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Brandon Lowe #8 after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the Detroit Tigers Comerica Park on August 6, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays, who finished 80-82 last season, have long been known to capitalize on the trade value of players on expiring contracts.

Consistently at the bottom of the league in payroll, the Rays must be deliberate in assessing their players’ current and future values. President of baseball operations Erik Neander often has to make tough decisions and trade key contributors for prospects, who will be cheaper and come with more years of team control.

Just this past season, the Rays traded Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. Those were two of their best position players, one of their best starting pitchers, and one of their best relievers. They are all set to be free agents and hit the open market within the next couple of years.

Neander knows he can get a better haul for his players if he trades them before they become rentals. To get a better return on talent, he has to constantly listen to offers for his players once they reach their salary arbitration years.

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For the Rays to stay competitive in 2025, they have to decide whether certain players are more valuable staying with the team or bringing back younger pieces in a trade. They are phenomenal at scouting and developing prospects, which is a huge reason for their continued relevancy.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and second baseman Brandon Lowe have each eclipsed six years of major league service. Teams have checked in on their availability this offseason, but as of now, they have been turned away.

Let’s break down what Díaz and Lowe have to offer the Rays (and other teams) and project when they will be moved.

Yandy Díaz

2024 Stats: 145 G, .281/.341/.414, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Díaz, 33, has been an above-average hitter for the duration of his career. His 120 wRC+ from last season was actually a downgrade from his stellar 2023 season that saw him post a 163 wRC+. That season, Díaz won the American League batting title (.330) and the Silver Slugger Award for AL first-basemen.

Operating as the Rays’ leadoff hitter for the past few years, Díaz is a difficult batter to get out. He may not be a prototypical leadoff hitter (bottom 10th percentile sprint speed), but he consistently maintains high exit velocities (EVs) and low strikeout rates.

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With a top-25 average EV (92.2 mph) and a top-ten max EV (117.4 mph), we can see that this guy punishes baseballs among the league’s best. But, he isn’t your prototypical power threat either.

So, what makes Díaz unique? He doesn’t sell out for home runs.

Díaz’s average launch angle was just five degrees in 2024, the eighth most horizontal in baseball. He ropes balls on a line regularly, fueling his strong batting average, but that approach doesn’t equate to a lot of home runs.

Regardless of launch angle, Díaz is the Rays’ best hitter entering the coming season. He is under team control for 2025 at $10 million, with a $12 million club option for 2026. He is an affordable entity for the results he is posting.

In-House Replacement Options

If the Rays were to trade Díaz for a prospect package, his most likely replacement at first base would be Jonathan Aranda, the team’s projected designated hitter.

Aranda, 26, posted a 113 wRC+ in 44 major league games last season. His most likely defensive home is first base long-term. Aranda would be an easy stopgap to replace Díaz defensively.

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To fill the void of the missing right-handed infielder, the team could opt to recall Curtis Mead, one of their more highly-touted prospects, to play a more regular role.

Mead, 24, slashed .288/.359/.481 with 13 homers and 11 stolen bases in 91 games in Triple-A this past season. In brief major league stints, Mead has hit .244 with two home runs in 62 games. A trade of Díaz or Lowe would seem to grant Mead a prolonged look.

Looking beyond 2025, the Rays may have another heavy-hitting first-baseman. Xavier Isaac, their 2022 first-round pick, is 6’3″ and 240 pounds as just a 21-year-old. Isaac ranks as the 45th-best prospect in the sport, according to Just Baseball.

In 102 games last season mostly spent in High-A (with a brief stint in Double-A), Isaac slashed .264/.370/.480 with 18 home runs and 15 steals. He has impressive power and could even be in the mix for a call-up in the second half of 2025.

How Long Will Díaz Be a Ray?

The reason that Díaz has remained a Ray for as long as he has is because he is a 33-year-old first-baseman. As far as trade value goes, that player archetype is one of the least valued in baseball. Even though he can mash, he plays a position where offensive production is generally easier to find.

Teams may have made their pitches for Díaz, but the Rays have found them to come up short of what would make him worth moving.

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They seem to want to compete at present, and to do so, they have to have some established bats. Even at $12 million in 2026, that is a very affordable price for the Rays to hold onto him.

I think that Díaz’s fate is tied to two outcomes.

The first is how the Rays’ 2025 season begins. If they are competing, I would find it hard to believe that they move off of him unless they are upgrading at a different position. If the first half goes poorly, then they probably would move him at the deadline and try to start over.

The second is how Isaac handles the upper minor leagues. If he is busting down the door to the majors by July, the team may feel that anything they can get for Díaz is worth it. However, if Isaac struggles, which is not impossible given that he is just 21, the Rays may decide to keep Díaz for the duration of his contract.

My Prediction: Díaz will remain a Ray for the entirety of 2025. I think the Rays will be competitive enough to warrant holding onto him. Even if Isaac is a revelation, Díaz would still be a valuable designated hitter.

Brandon Lowe

2024 Stats: 107 G, .244/.311/.473, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 123 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

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Lowe, 30, has posted a wRC+ over 100 in all seven seasons he’s played in the big leagues. He showed us his ceiling in 2021 when he hit 39 home runs with a 4.5 fWAR in 149 games.

Unlike Díaz, Lowe frequently lifts the ball, leading to more home runs. He may not hit the ball as hard as Díaz, but he leverages his swing path to turn his solid EVs into extra-base hits.

Lowe has always struck out at a worse-than-average rate, and 2024 was no different (26.4%). However, he has usually been able to walk at an above-average rate, which was not the case last season.

In 2024, Lowe’s walk rate was down to 7.8%, 3.7% lower than in 2023. This may not seem like a big difference, but it dropped him from the top 16% of walk rates in 2023 to right around the league average.

Ultimately, Lowe’s biggest problem has been that he has only played more than 110 games in a season once. His per-162 numbers are great, but at this point, it’s reasonable to wonder how many more full seasons he has left in him.

This past season, he strained his oblique in April and broke his pinky toe in June. In 2023, he dealt with toe, neck, leg, and knee injuries. In 2022, he played just 65 games, primarily due to back problems.

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Still, Lowe is under contract for $10.5 million this season and has a club option for $11.5 million in 2026. Given that he is a few years younger than Díaz and can capably play second base, he is probably more valuable than Díaz.

In-House Replacement Options

If the Rays were to trade Lowe, his most likely replacement for Opening Day would be Richie Palacios, Jose Caballero, or Mead.

Palacios offers more offensive upside than Caballero and would likely draw starts in a strong-side platoon role. However, since Caballero is a very talented defender, he could see playing time all over the diamond.

Given that Mead is an intriguing prospect, I think he and Palacios would be the primary recipients of playing time. Caballero would remain as just a utility infielder.

Given that the Rays’ projected starting shortstop is Taylor Walls, who posted a 60 wRC+ in 2024, the Rays could look to add a more established infielder elsewhere if they decide to trade Lowe.

Some combination of Walls, Mead, Palacios, and Caballero in the middle infield seems like an unserious attempt to compete, offensively speaking.

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The Rays also have a consensus top-ten prospect in shortstop Carson Williams, who is ascending through their farm system. Ranked as Just Baseball’s fifth-best prospect, Williams, 21, slashed .256/.352/.469 with 20 home runs and 33 steals in 115 Double-A games last season.

Williams is a candidate to be promoted in the second half of 2025. A left side of the infield with Williams and former top prospect Junior Caminero is something that the Rays can feel good about. If Mead could prove to hit better than Walls, Palacios, and Caballero have, that’s a young infield with a lot of promise.

How Long Will Lowe Be a Ray?

The Rays’ reluctance to trade Lowe is presumably due to his team-friendly contract and that there are not a lot of proven major league hitters on the roster.

The fact that Lowe is more valuable than Díaz makes me inclined to believe the Rays are more likely to move him. Teams would be willing to give up a real, intriguing piece for Lowe, especially if he has a good, healthy first half.

If Mead and Williams both produce, whether that be in Triple-A or the majors, the Rays may feel that they can trade Lowe for young pieces and still compete.

They would be more likely to trade him if the first half doesn’t go well. Even if it does, I don’t think the Rays will let his contract expire without moving him.

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These speculations depend greatly on Lowe’s health. If he sustains a serious injury, that would damage his market and the Rays may decide it’s best to hold onto him a bit longer.

My Prediction: Lowe will be traded by the 2025 trade deadline. He is a valuable hitter who plays up the middle. A team will give the Rays what they are looking for, even if the Rays are still in the playoff mix.

With Williams and Mead vying for spots on the roster, the Rays will have to make a difficult decision. Moving Lowe opens up room for both to get a real audition in the second half of 2025.