Wilyer Abreu is Creating a Great Problem for the Red Sox

Prior to Opening Day, if you had to guess which Red Sox player would be the first to receive “MVP” chants at Fenway Park this season, chances are you’d think Rafael Devers, Garrett Crochet, or Alex Bregman.

In reality, it was Wilyer Abreu, the player who came into the year with the most uncertain future with the Red Sox

Even though he finished sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2024 and won the AL Gold Glove in right field, it seemed almost certain Abreu would be traded for pitching in the offseason.

His name was floated in numerous trade proposals. He was supposed to headline the Garrett Crochet to Boston package. He was mocked for every single Seattle Mariners starter. He was sent to Pittsburgh for Jared Jones by various Twitter GM’s.

None of it happened. Yet, as spring training rolled around, Abreu’s future in Boston remained up in the air. Why? Roman Anthony.

Roman Anthony (Just Baseball’s No. 1 prospect) could not be more ready to make his MLB debut. However, it just so happened that Abreu was standing in his way, and he is doing everything in his power early on to shift the pressure elsewhere.

All stats from this piece were pulled after play on April 9th

Abreu’s Hot Start

Wilyer Abreu ends it with a walk-off single off The Monster! pic.twitter.com/R3aB88RS41

— MLB (@MLB) April 6, 2025

Despite missing the majority of spring training with a viral gastrointestinal illness, Abreu came out of the gates scorching, and there are no signs of him slowing down.

The 25-year-old has been one of the best players in baseball over the first couple weeks of his sophomore campaign. Just days after he and his wife had welcomed twins, Abreu hit two home runs on Opening Day, one for each. Just over a week later, he hit a walk-off double in game one of a doubleheader that would lead to “MVP” chants in game two.

Currently, Abreu is fourth in fWAR (1.0). He ranks within the top five in nearly every major offensive category, slashing .378/.500/.703 with a .464 xwOBA and 234 wRC+.

On Baseball Savant, Abreu’s batting metrics are a sea of red. The lowest percentile he has is his squared-up rate, which falls in the 59th percentile at 26.3%. Everything else is at or above the 79th percentile, with seven north of the 90th.

It’s not just offensively, either. Abreu has carried his defensive prowess over to this year. He has made multiple highlight reel plays, including a 91-mph laser to nab Lars Nootbaar racing into third on Sunday Night Baseball.

Wilyer Abreu today:

2-for-2, 3 RBI

…and THIS perfectly executed throw 🔥
pic.twitter.com/hew6jPKjus

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) April 7, 2025

Right field at Fenway Park is one of the toughest positions in baseball, and to win the Gold Glove—as a rookie—in that spot is impressive. His defense will continue to shine.

Is This Success Sustainable?

Look at the league leaders in wRC+ and fWAR right now, and you will see Wilyer Abreu’s name next to Aaron Judge at the top of the American League. While he is keeping company with the reigning AL MVP, it is fair to anticipate that the 25-year-old won’t be rubbing shoulders with him all season.

All the stats for Abreu are more pronounced due to the red-hot start and the small sample size, but they also are indicative of a young player who is starting to come into his own at the big league level.

Last year, Abreu played a full season at the big league level for the first time, after a solid 28-game audition at the end of 2023. Across 137 games played, Abreu hit .253/.322/.459, with 15 home runs and a 114 wRC+. By fWAR, he was a three-win player.

That is a really solid floor to build on, but now we are seeing a player who could be even better as he continues to make adjustments at the highest level.

The glaring issue with Abreu’s game last year was his swing and miss. Abreu whiffed at a 29.6% (20th percentile) clip as a rookie. This year, that has dropped to 14.5% (94th).

Whiffs were always expected to be part of Abreu’s game, but so far, he is changing the narrative, thanks to his improved plate discipline. He is being significantly more selective this year, chasing only 16.2% (96th percentile) of out-of-zone pitches compared to 28.2% (50th) last year.

In turn, he has cut his strikeout rate nearly in half from 28% to 15.2%, and has more than doubled his walk rate, going from 8.9% to 19.6%.

On a pitch type basis, Abreu struggled with four-seam fastballs last year. Those were the pitches that he had the tendency to swing and miss on. It wasn’t all fastballs though; he was a good sinker hitter, slugging .809 with a 13.5% whiff rate.

On the other hand, against four-seamers, he slugged only .407 with a 35.4% whiff rate.

The four-seamers, especially those at the top of the zone with good vertical movement, were the ones that got him.

This year, he is hitting .364 on them, and the whiff rate has dropped to 21.9%. He is laying off the ones above the zone, and the ones that would be high strikes he is able to get on top of and line them sharply to left field.

Abreu has always had the talent. He has a strong batted ball profile, 25 home run upside, and he’s going to play Gold Glove defense. He has slimmed down—which I believe has helped him get to these four-seamers—and he’s not expanding the zone.

Both of these adjustments have led to better at-bats and a more complete player offensively.

Going forward, I would like to see Alex Cora give him more at-bats against lefties. Abreu was almost exclusively a platoon bat as a rookie. So far this year, Abreu only has six plate appearances vs southpaws. He has one hit and two walks. I think he can be more than just a righty specialist, if given the opportunities.

As long as the plate discipline stays the same, I think Abreu can sustain this success. He won’t be a top-five player in baseball the entire season, but he absolutely has the potential to be a five-win player over the course of 162.

While Roman Anthony has as high of a ceiling as any prospect in baseball, the Red Sox can’t prioritize playing him over a guy who is already thriving in the Majors.

If Boston is looking for a spot for their prized top prospect in the lineup, they have to look somewhere other than right field.

Pressure Shifts to Ceddanne Rafaela

The Red Sox already had a logjam in the outfield, and Abreu’s play has only made Anthony’s path to the big leagues tougher.

When the Red Sox’s Chief Baseball Officer, Craig Breslow, announced early in the offseason that Ceddanne Rafaela would be the club’s primary center fielder, the focus shifted towards Abreu as the guy that Anthony would be competing with. As a result, the consensus was that Abreu would be traded for pitching.

However, as we know, that didn’t happen. With Roman Anthony tearing it up Triple-A, the focus has been placed back on Rafaela.

Contrary to Abreu, Rafaela has not come out of the gates strong. In his first 11 games of 2025, Rafaela has slashed .229/.308/.229 with a 57 wRC+.

In his own rookie year in 2024, Rafaela displayed abysmal plate discipline. He was in the bottom 1% in terms of chase rate (46.4%) and walk rate (2.6%). He struggled in the contact department, too, whiffing at a 33% clip. The combination of all this resulted in him striking out 26.4% of the time.

Thanks to timely hitting and elite defense, Rafaela was a productive player (0.9 fWAR) despite the offensive struggles.

In 53 high leverage plate appearances last season, he slashed .354/.404/.625 with a 183 wRC+. Among AL hitters with at least 50 high leverage plate appearances, he was within the top five for hits, AVG, SLG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Remember, this was as a rookie.

While he moved back and forth between center field and shortstop, he was a much better defender in center, as the metrics didn’t love him in the infield.

In 631.1 innings in center, Rafaela had 12 DRS and 5 OAA. He was, without a doubt, one of the best center fielders in baseball when he was out there. He’s already building his Gold Glove portfolio early on this season.

Ceddanne are you kidding?! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/904Nb7C2BN

— Red Sox (@RedSox) April 7, 2025

Rafaela had a solid spring. He bulked up, was more selective at the plate, and took his walks. In the first series of the year, he totally abandoned this approach but has since settled in over the last few series.

His chase rate has decreased by ~5%, but the biggest difference is his whiff rate that has dropped from 33% to 17.2%. Similarly, his out-of-zone contact rate has increased by ~22%, meaning he’s getting to these bad pitches and is fouling them off.

While this has led to him getting deeper into counts and taking some walks, the ones that he puts in play aren’t hit hard enough to squeak through.

The reality is that he’s probably always going to be a free-swinger, but the hope is that he can be at least just below league average offensively to warrant keeping him in center. A potential Platinum Glove winner patrolling center field is something Red Sox fans can be excited about, as he is already drawing comparisons to Jackie Bradley Jr.

With that said, the Red Sox have the ability to shift Jarren Duran over to center field, if not just play Roman Anthony there himself. Regardless of the alignment, there is no doubting that the offensive potential of an Anthony-Duran-Abreu outfield is better than one that includes Rafaela.

The defense, however, might not be quite as elite as what they are running out there to start the season.

What Does This Mean for Roman Anthony?

This puts Roman Anthony in a tough position. He’s proven he’s ready for the majors, it’s just a matter of time before he gets his shot.

For now, there’s unfortunately no spot for him on this team. We always hear that you can never have too much depth, but is it really a good thing?

Jarren Duran was an MVP candidate last year, Abreu’s play has seemingly solidified his role, and we know that the Red Sox love Rafaela’s defense.

At some point, a decision will have to be made. The most realistic option is Rafaela gets relegated to a super utility role, but can you justify moving a guy to the bench one year into an eight-year, $50 million deal? I think you have to, especially if he continues to put up poor at-bats.

It’s unfortunate because Rafaela is such an exciting player to watch when he’s clicking, but Roman Anthony is just too talented to sit in Triple-A for much longer.

Having too much talent is a great problem to have, but it is a problem all the same. When it comes to the Boston Red Sox right now, they seemingly have too many good young outfielders.

Now, it is up to them to figure out how to best put the puzzle pieces together for a young core that seemingly has a long window to contend in the AL East.