Can the Cincinnati Reds Young Core Bounce Back in 2025?

In 2023, the Cincinnati Reds had an influx of young talent make its way to the Queen City that brought a reverberating energy to the club.

After promising seasons from Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Andrew Abbott, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson, and a small taste of Noelvi Marte, 2024 was supposed to be the year that the Reds were back in the October picture.

That turned out not to be the case.

Matt McLain did not make a single appearance due to injury, Noelvi Marte was suspended for the first 80 games of the season due to a PED violation and looked horrendous in the second half of the season.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was out for most of the season and did not look great during his healthy periods, Will Benson struggled mightily throughout the year, and Spencer Steer, while finding ways to still be productive, took a step back.

So, the big question is, how real are these struggles, and what will 2025 bring to the Cincinnati Reds young core?

Noelvi Marte 

The start of Noelvi Marte’s career was very promising. In 35 games he slashed .316/.366/.456 while surprising with passable defense as he posted -2 Outs Above Average and -1 Defensive Runs Saved.

Entering the 2024 season, a lot of hope was tied to the left side of the infield of two former top prospects with Marte at third and Elly De La Cruz at shorstop. A lot of that optimism dissipated when Marte was suspended for the first half of the season due to a PED violation.

Marte only made matters worse, when he showed extreme regression once he finally hit the field after serving his suspension.

Across 66 games he slashed .210/.248/.301, with just four home runs and a 46 wRC+.

Even worse, the defense took a major hit, as he posted -11 OAA and -8 DRS in just about twice as many games. Which Noelvi Marte should we expect in 2025?

With such a fall-off, just about every metric fell off as well. In 2023, Marte had a 28.6% chase rate, a 26.3% whiff rate, and a strikeout rate of 20.3%. Those numbers aren’t spectacular by any means, but in 2024 those numbers climbed to a 37.1% chase rate, a 32.1% whiff rate, and a 31% strikeout rate.

Those numbers are non-competitive, especially when you add in the fact that his average exit velocity fell from 91.3 MPH in 2023 to 87 MPH in 2024.

Marte was chasing more, missing more, and not hitting the ball nearly as hard. Add in the fact that he became a liability defensively, and cause for concern is at an all-time high.

The Reds likely don’t want to give up on a former top prospect, who may have never shook off the rust of the suspension, or just didn’t get in the right head-space to succeed.

With that said, if the Cincinnati Reds want to play playoff baseball this season, they might need to look for a different option to man the hot corner this season. Or at least pick up a really solid contingency plan.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand 

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was a fan-favorite in the 2023 season, but 2024 was a lost year as Encarnacion-Strand had a rough first month of the season before going down with a season-ending injury.

Encarnacion-Strand was hit in the hand on April 27th and the Reds medical staff assumed he would be okay as he returned to play a few days later. He was in fact not healthy as he was added to the injured list on May 8th.

Going back and forth between trying to decide if it was a hand or wrist injury, it wasn’t until July 11th that Encarnacion-Strand finally underwent season-ending surgery on his right hand.

We do not have a large sample for Encarnacion-Strand’s 2024 season, but some things jump out.

Encarnacion-Strand has always been a guy who swung often, missed plenty, and would strike out a lot. Even in his impressive 2023, where he hit .270/.328/.477, with 13 home runs across 63 games, CES was chasing at a 36.5% clip and whiffing 29.4% of the time. This led to a 28.6% strikeout rate.

In 2024 that chase rate climbed to 40.5%, but the whiff rate and strikeout rate remained almost identical with rates of 29.4% and 28.5% respectively.

So why did his slashline fall to .190/.220/.293 in 2024? Because he wasn’t hitting the ball hard.

In 2024 Encarnacion-Strand had an average exit velocity of 87.8 MPH and a hard hit rate of 37.3%.

In 2023 those numbers were much better as his average exit velocity was 90.3 MPH and had a hard hit rate of 48.4%. Unlike Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand did not have a major change in approach. Although his approach needs to improve, his issues came from no longer making quality hard contact.

Considering the fact that Encarnarion-Strand only played 33 games, the Reds could be more hopeful heading into 2025 that he can turn things around and be more like the player he was in 2023. 

Will Benson 

Will Benson had one of the more interesting seasons in 2023. After a dismal start to the season, Benson was optioned before reaching the halfway point of the first month.

However, he was called up in May and never looked back as he slashed .275/.365/.498 in 108 total games. Looking further into the numbers, Benson had an expected batting average of .230 in 2023 which pointed towards regression in 2024.

Well, he regressed much more than expected as he posted a .187 batting average and his already putrid strikeout rate of 31.3% climbed to 39.7% in 2024.

Even worse, the expected numbers suggest Benson was just slightly lucky again as he had an expected batting average of .184 in 2024.

While Benson is definitely a platoon player as he has a career OPS of .772 against righties and a career OPS of .461 against lefties. In 2024, he only posted an OPS of .676 against righties.

In addition to his struggles at the plate, Benson struggled in the field as well as posting -2 OAA and -6 DRS in 2024. With these numbers in mind, Benson can best be categorized as a below-average bench platoon bat who struggles in the field.

That is not a guy who should be seeing 300+ plate appearances in a season. The struggles are very real. As we look ahead to spring training, it may be in the best interest of the organization to be open to other options in the outfield. 

Spencer Steer 

Lastly, we have Spencer Steer.

Steer is without a doubt the best player on this list of struggling young guys and there is no question he will be a key piece for the Reds this season.

With that said, it is hard to set proper expectations for Steer going into 2025.

When looking at Steer’s quality of contact numbers for 2023 and 2024 there are not huge differences. What stands out is his expected batting average from 2023 being a .252 clip while he actually hit .271 that season.

That suggests a bit of a lucky year, while 2024 suggests a slightly unlucky year as Steer posted a .225 batting average with a .237 expected batting average.

Steer still has a good approach at the plate as his walk rate actually increased in 2024, while chasing less than 25% of the time. But, at the end of the day, Steer saw his OPS drop by 99 points and that is a blow to this Reds lineup that is expecting Steer to be a middle-of-the-order bat.

Amidst the disappointing season, Spencer Steer was still a 20/20 guy who led the team in RBI with 92. Is Spencer Steer the .820 OPS guy we saw in 2023 or the .721 OPS guy we saw in 2024?

The easy cop-out answer is we should expect him to be somewhere in the middle. Based on the expected stats, Steer is a guy who we should hit in the .240 to .250 range and probably settle in with an OPS around .780.

It is fair to expect Steer to have a bounce-back season, especially if the lineup around him is better, giving him more protection than he saw with everyone struggling in 2024.

The Cincinnati Reds still have a great young core. At the same time, fans need to be prepared for that core to turn out to be different than they expected heading into 2024.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are the guys who will make the engine go and Spencer Steer should have a bit of a bounce-back year and prove to be a respectable middle-of-the-order bat.

The other members of the young core around them are complimentary pieces and should be viewed as such. Knowing this organization and their spending habits, they need to maximize this window.

In doing so, the Reds should have a short leash with Marte, Benson, and Encarnacion-Strand, although I hold out more hope for Encarnacion-Strand than the others. The Reds have an opportunity in 2025 to make some real noise in the National League. Make the most of it.