Why Kevin Gausman Is Still an Intriguing Trade Chip
With the trade deadline looming, many contenders will be on the hunt for starting pitching. One potential arm that could be on the move is Kevin Gausman, who, in a market mostly devoid of top-end talent, could provide a serious return on investment.
The once promising Toronto Blue Jays, with their loaded pitching staff and talented young offensive cornerstones, appear to have hit rock bottom this season. With contract decisions needing to be made in the near future for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the team is at a crossroads, and will likely need to sell at this year’s deadline.
Whether or not they move one of their young stars remains to be seen, but it is almost certain that they will move on from some of their starting pitching. While many point to Yusei Kikuchi as a likely candidate given his expiring contract, Toronto may be better off trading away a piece with more control and fetching a higher return.
Enter Kevin Gausman, who is in year three of a five-year contract. After having a late breakout in his age-29 season with the Giants, Gausman had a string of four spectacular seasons from 2020 through 2023.
Kevin Gausman Would Strengthen Pitching Trade Market
This season, though, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.55 ERA, with his strikeout rate down significantly from a year ago. Given this regression, and $46 million owed to Gausman over the next two years, the Blue Jays may try to move him and his contract before they enter a potential franchise reset.
For buyers at the deadline, Gausman would be an interesting piece despite his poor ERA and strikeout numbers. He has shown remarkable durability, and having a veteran that you know will be able to take the ball every fifth day down the stretch is invaluable. He made 12 starts in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, has made over 30 starts each of the past three seasons, and is on pace to do so again. In short, he is a very safe investment.
Reasons for Hope
On top of this, there is also reason for buyers to believe that Gausman is due to have a big second half of the season. His FIP, for example, is 3.92, over .6 runs better than his ERA, which indicates he has been the victim of bad luck, and that he has pitched better than the surface level numbers indicate. He’s even allowing fewer hits per nine than he did in 2022, a season in which he finished in the top-10 for Cy Young voting.
Gausman has continued to avoid the walk relatively well, as he is in the top quarter of MLB in terms of walk percentage. Avoiding free passes come October is crucial, and Gausman has been able to do that despite his struggles.
While he has avoided the walk, he has also continued to get hitters to chase outside of the zone, as he sits 18 points above the MLB average in chase percentage. This indicates that hitters are still struggling to identify some of his offerings, and that his pitches continue to have the movement necessary to get outs at the major league level.
Another element of Gausman that should give teams confidence is that he had his breakout so late in his career. It took time for it to click at the Major League level for Gausman, and he spent years changing his pitch usage before everything came together for him. This indicates that he is able to be coached, and if a team and coaching staff were able to unlock his potential before, they could do it again. And, if even it did not fully click this season, they would have two more full seasons with Gausman to get him back to his old form.
Track Record
What makes this situation particularly interesting is that of the pitchers on the market, Gausman has the potential to have the best return on investment. He has a track record and ceiling much closer to Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal than Erick Fedde and Tyler Anderson, but may cost closer to the latter than the former given his struggles this season.
Gausman has shown over the past four seasons that he can be a bona fide ace, but he will cost significantly less than anyone could have imagined just a year ago. He represents a unique middle ground that is essentially unoccupied in the pitching market; he has the potential to be much more valuable than a rental back-end innings eater, but his age and performance have placed him a tier below the top starting pitchers that will be moved before the deadline.
Whether or not Gausman will be moved remains to be seen, but any contending team looking to add starting pitching at the deadline would be wise to call Toronto about the right-hander, as he has the potential to be a cornerstone of a contending rotation this season and in years to come.
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