Do the Astros or Rangers Stand a Better Chance to Make the Playoffs?

This is not an article I anticipated writing before the season started. I might have figured that “Which Texas Team Is Going To Win the AL West?” would be a more appropriate piece. That isn’t the case.

Due to the Texas Rangers‘ and Houston Astros‘ injury woes and bad baseball-filled starts, along with the Seattle Mariners’ strong pitching, the AL West is a one-team race at the moment.

As of Friday, the Astros (35-40) and the Rangers (34-40) are trailing the Mariners (44-33) by 8 and 8.5 games, respectively. They are 6 and 6.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. That’s not good. There will be lots of teams to leap over in the standings if one of the past two World Series champions is going to make the playoffs this year.

Just Baseball’s own Ryan Finkelstein and Patrick Lyons discussed this very topic on their Who’s Better Baseball podcast last week. Shameless plug, if you haven’t yet checked out their content along with all of our other podcast offerings at Just Baseball Media, you need to do so. You won’t be disappointed!

Ryan and Patrick agree that the two Texas teams are too far back, and the other divisions in the AL are doing too well for both the Astros and the Rangers to reach the playoffs this year.

They did, however, disagree on which of the two could possibly make a push for the playoffs if they turn things around. Ryan suggested the Rangers had a better shot at the postseason. Patrick was leaning toward the Astros.

Both make great points, and you can catch their full Rangers vs Astros banter below:

Why the Astros Will Make the Playoffs: Offense

The Astros’ lineup is scary. There were times early this season when certain players had their struggles. See Alex Bregman. What’s more, Kyle Tucker is currently on the IL, though hopefully he will be back sooner rather than later.

When Tucker does come back, it is hard to find a fiercer top of the order in MLB than Jose Altuve, Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Bregman. Offense shouldn’t be an issue with this Astros club. Those guys can flat-out rake. Plus, they are seasoned veterans who have been part of one of the greatest dynasty runs in MLB history. They know how to win.

To Patrick’s point, the Astros are potentially nearing the end of their window of opportunity. So, don’t be surprised if GM Dana Brown goes out and finds a way to get another starter or two to bolster a razor-thin rotation. The farm system isn’t great, so it might take some creativity to make it happen.

Injuries have wreaked havoc on the Astros pitching this season. There is so little depth remaining in the organization that any help will have to come in the form of a trade. If Houston can get within striking distance before the July 30 trade deadline, don’t be shocked to see a couple more hurlers head down to H-Town.

Why the Rangers Will Make the Playoffs: Pitching

The Rangers, on the other hand, have several top pitchers who should re-join the club at different points in time over the next few months. Max Scherzer is set to make his season debut with the Rangers this coming Saturday at home against the Royals. That should be a big boost to the club.

In addition to Scherzer, the Rangers are expecting to get back relief pitcher Josh Sborz, along with starters Cody Bradford, Tyler Mahle, and Jacob deGrom. Any and all of those additions will help bolster the rotation, the bullpen, or both, as some of the current starters slide into the ‘pen.

And don’t forget about Jack Leiter. While he struggled in his three big league starts earlier this year, he has been dominating for Triple-A Round Rock. Leiter could easily end up in the bullpen in Arlington down the stretch if the situation warrants it.

A Struggling Rangers Offense Needs Josh Jung

While all of that extra pitching will help the Rangers, it has been their offensive struggles that have plagued them in 2024. Through the team’s first 74 games this season, the pitching staff has allowed 4.45 runs per game compared to 4.42 in 2023. That’s a wash. But offensively, the team is only averaging 4.23 runs per game compared to 5.44 last season.

Josh Jung isn’t the best position player on the Rangers, but the team just flat-out plays better when he is in the lineup. He not only extends the batting order, but despite his young age, he is a vocal leader on the field.

Last season, when Jung started or made it into the game, the team had a .598 winning percentage (73-49). When he was out for three early season rest days and then missed 37 games in Augst and September due to a broken thumb, the Rangers fell apart. In those contests, Texas was 17-23 for a .425 winning percentage.

Jung only got to play in the first four games this season before he broke his wrist/forearm. The Rangers were 3-1 in those first four games with Jung and have gone 31-39 since without him.

Unexpected contributor Josh Smith has played well this season, but there is just something about Jung that makes everyone around him better. He is a coach’s son, and perhaps that upbringing helped him develop his leadership abilities.

Will Either Texas Team Actually Make the Playoffs?

According to FanGraphs, the answer is probably not. It is always hard to repeat as champions, and for these recent World Series winners, it will be hard to make the playoffs at all.

FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Astros a 34.8% chance of making the postseason, with the Rangers coming in at a putrid 10.7%. Before the season started, the site had the Astros at an 85.9% chance and the Rangers at 37.9%.

Despite those numbers, if I had to pick one team from the Lone Star State to make the playoffs, I would bet on the Rangers. It is going to take a special six-week run to make it happen. But, with all of the pieces coming back from the IL, and therefore without the need to rely on trades to bolster the roster, Texas just seems like a safer pick.

If the Astros truly do go get some more pitching, my pick could shift to them. But with their current roster configuration, the Rangers seem like the better choice.

Now, if the Ranges don’t play better before the deadline, and maybe even drop back a bit more, all bets are off, as they are likely to become sellers. The club has several players who will be free agents at the end of this season. If GM Chris Young doesn’t see a clear path to the postseason, look for him to start retooling for next year and beyond.

Stats, records, and odds updated prior to games on June 21.