Are the Nationals Only a Year Away?
It's been a long five seasons, but the Nationals look stronger than they've been at any point since 2019. Are they now just a year away from competing?

It seems like only yesterday that the Washington Nationals were on top of the world after defying the odds by capturing the 2019 World Series.
They sported a four-headed monster atop their rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Aníbal Sánchez.
Their bullpen had a formidable one-two punch at the back end in Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson.
Their lineup was headlined by some of the game’s top offensive talent in Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
Life was good in the nation’s capital.
However, their fall from grace since then has been one of the most noteworthy declines in baseball.
Washington has failed to appear in the postseason since their Cinderella season, finishing no higher than fourth in the AL East while posting a losing record in each of the five last seasons, including a 55-win season in 2022.
Top-tier names like Scherzer, Soto and Turner were all dealt away to bigger and brighter opportunities.
All the while, many of the names that did stick around just weren’t the same after 2019. Strasburg and Corbin are prime examples.
Strasburg never remained healthy enough after that season, pitching in just 31.1 combined innings over the next three years before ultimately retiring.
Corbin never had a sub-4.50 ERA season after 2019, and from 2020-2024, he held the highest ERA among qualified starters.
While it’s been largely doom and gloom in D.C., 2024 seemed different, as if hope was beginning to return to the Nationals.
By June last year, the Nationals sat just two games out of an NL Wild Card spot. Only a year prior, they sat five games out and second-to-last in the National League after the opening two months of the season.
Throughout the season, the future also came into focus, with several key pieces of the rebuild showcasing their potential at the big league level.
CJ Abrams made his first career All-Star appearance on the back of an impressive first half.
MacKenzie Gore showed more of his prospect pedigree in year three than he had to that point in his career, posting a sub-4.00 ERA for the first time.
The Nationals also caught a glimpse of their future outfield with their two blue-chip prospects, James Wood and Dylan Crews, making their major league debuts in the latter portion of the season.
So, after a brighter-looking 2024 campaign paired with what’s been a productive offseason, this team suddenly looks as competitive as they’ve been for the better portion of the last decade.
While it may be far-fetched to think that a team in this long and extensive of a rebuild could be a true postseason competitor this upcoming season, it’s not out of the question to look toward 2026 and feel good about what’s in store.
So, is it safe to say the Nationals are only a year away from contending again?
An Offseason Filled with Winning (or Winning-Adjacent) Moves
While 2025 may not be the year for the Nationals, this offseason has proven to be one where their focus has been on ushering in a winning culture.
They’ve achieved this by surrounding their impressive young core with players that may not be the flashiest but certainly don’t indicate a team that will be phoning it in.
Each incoming name has addressed an area of need, whether that be filling a full-time role or acting as a stopgap for a piece of the future waiting in the wings.
Nathaniel Lowe is Washington’s biggest acquisition of the winter after he posted an fWAR above 2.5 for the third consecutive season. In 565 plate appearances in 2024, the 29-year-old slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 HR, 69 RBI and a 121 wRC+.
He’s under 30 and won’t hit free agency until the end of the 2026 season, meaning with no real option in the minor leagues slated to take over, Lowe could be the Nationals’ first baseman of the future.
Then there come the moves that may only be for 2025 but still promote competitive baseball, which will only stand to benefit the major league development of core pieces like Wood and Crews.
Josh Bell was signed to be the presumptive designated hitter this season. He’s coming off a -0.1 fWAR season in 2024, but that’s partly due to the putrid -9 DRS and -9 OAA he displayed in 98 games at first.
After posting a 101 wRC+ with a .249/.319/.405 slash line, 19 HR and 71 RBI, Bell’s bat will be a welcomed addition in the upper portion of the Nationals lineup alongside Abrams, Crews, Wood and Lowe.
Despite being DFA’d by the Dodgers last season, Amed Rosario is a solid platoon candidate for the Nats at third base this year when lefties take the mound; he hit .294 against them in 2024.
Platooning with Rosario could be great for the development of José Tena, as it will allow him to get regular at-bats against right-handed pitchers, against whom he hit .292 in 2024. Rosario’s presence will also allow Tena to be an option as a backup around the infield when he’s not platooning at third.
The Rosario signing is also significant because neither he nor Tena really poses a threat to Brady House (Just Baseball’s No. 76 overall prospect) and his playing time once he’s ready to take over at third.
Moving to the mound, the Nationals already had plenty of intriguing arms to slot in behind Gore, in Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz, but the signing of Michael Soroka and the re-signing of Trevor Williams only adds that much more depth.
Soroka displayed glimpses of his All-Star form from 2019, before injuries derailed his career, in the White Sox’s bullpen in 2024. In 16 appearances out of the ‘pen, he posted a 2.75 ERA. He will look to keep that up as he transitions back to the rotation.
Before missing over three months of action in 2024, Williams was having a remarkable season. The 32-year-old ended up posting a 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 13 starts, rebounding from an ugly 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 30 starts in 2023.
Both Soroka on a one-year deal and Williams on a two-year deal promote that competitive culture without necessarily blocking the path for future rotation pieces like Jarlin Susana (Just Baseball’s No. 49 prospect) and Travis Sykora (Just Baseball’s No. 67 prospect), both of whom have ETAs of 2026, according to our prospect expert Aram Leighton.
Then in the bullpen, after parting with Robert Garcia in the Lowe deal with the Rangers, the Nationals found a way to fill the closer’s role in the short term by signing Jorge López.
Despite a very animated blowup with the Mets in 2024 resulting in his release from the team, López turned in an excellent season after the fact with the Cubs, posting a 2.03 ERA in 26.2 innings in Chicago.
Now the Nationals still could go out and sign someone else a little more established than López to anchor the ‘pen, or they could gear up to look in-house for a solution for the future.
That in-house arm could very well be former top-tier prospect Cade Cavalli, who has been a starter plagued by injury. If he shifts into the bullpen, he could potentially be the Nationals closer of the future, which Jack McMullen suggested on a recent episode of the Just Baseball Show.
In that same episode, both Aram Leighton and Jack McMullen described 2025 as a “year of clarity” for the Nationals, in which they can see what they have now and use that knowledge to help them move forward and really position themselves to contend in 2026.
Washington Is Letting the Kids Play
While part of the Nationals’ “year of clarity” in 2025 will be determining if their signings this offseason have a role to play moving forward, it will also be to gauge what their talented young core could look like in 2026.
Despite this team trending in the right direction, they will inevitably face growing pains and questions regarding the key pieces of the franchise’s future success.
James Wood
As Just Baseball’s former No. 1 overall prospect before graduating mid-season this past year, Wood has all the potential in the world to be one of MLB’s next great stars.
He has immense power, which manifested as a 92.8 mph average exit velocity and a 52.0% hard-hit rate at the major league level in 2024. He paired that with a strong approach at the plate, posting an 11.6% walk rate and just a 21.0% chase rate.
His issue is the strikeout numbers, as he struck out at a 28.9% clip in his 336 big league plate appearances.
The question now becomes whether he can bring his K-rate down to the sub-20.0% rate it was at in Triple-A in 2024 prior to his call-up.
Dylan Crews
Crews showcased his plus defense and speed in his 31-game big league cameo last season, but his bat left something to be desired.
He only made hard contact at a 29.8% clip and showed real struggles against breaking pitches, hitting .000 with a .128 wOBA against sliders, .091 with an .082 wOBA against curveballs and .231 with a .208 wOBA against sweepers.
Both Wood and Crews now have 2025 to work through some of their issues in order to really attack 2026 after a full MLB season of development.
CJ Abrams
Turning to more established youngsters like Abrams, the 24-year-old shortstop will have another year to try and put together a more complete season.
What I mean by that is that in the first half of 2024, Abrams put on an All-Star-worthy performance, hitting .268 with an .831 OPS and a 129 wRC+.
However, in the second half, he only managed to hit .203 with a .586 OPS and a 64 wRC+, marking a stark change from his opening few months of the campaign.
The Nationals themselves tapered off in the second half, slipping further and further out of the NL Wild Card race as the months raged on. Now that they have more competitive pieces in place for 2025 though, there’s a higher likelihood that drop-off won’t occur – at least not to the same degree it did a year ago.
Abrams needs to be a more consistent performer across 162 games, and perhaps playing more meaningful games later in the season can help him stay motivated and build that full-season consistency to become more of a 129 wRC+ hitter than a 64 wRC+ hitter.
MacKenzie Gore
Staying on the note of consistency, Gore had the closest thing to a breakout campaign that he has had to this point in his three big league seasons, posting career bests in ERA, FIP and fWAR in 2024.
His problem really was stringing strong months together. His 3.19 ERA in April and his 2.60 ERA in May were brilliant but were quickly countered by two polar opposite months in June and July, as he put up 5.13 and 7.62 ERAs, respectively.
He has a hard fastball (80th percentile), keeps exit velocities lower than most (74th percentile), and induces Ks and whiffs at above-average rates (65th and 74th percentiles, respectively).
So with tools and abilities like that, if he can build on his career-best momentum from 2024 and work to piece performances together more consistently in 2025, then suddenly he could be the ace the Nationals need to make a proper postseason push in 2026.
Complementary Pieces
Then there are those who may project as more complementary players but will likely have roles on this team in 2026 and beyond.
In 2024, Luis Garcia Jr. posted the first above-average wRC+ season of his career (111 wRC+) and the first double-digit HR season of his career (18 HR), as well as also putting up career highs in RBI (70), AVG (.282), OBP (.318), SLG (.444) and OPS (.762).
Entering the team’s “year of clarity,” the 24-year-old has a chance to prove that his 2024 wasn’t merely a flash in the pan and that he can be the second baseman of the future when Washington’s competitive window officially opens.
Jacob Young‘s bat may only project as a bottom-of-the-order type, but he provides Gold Glove-caliber defense at a premium position in center field (12 DRS and 20 OAA in 2024) with blistering speed (33 SB last season).
If he can use 2025 to try to get anywhere closer to the .300, or near .300, hitter he was in the minors in 2023, then suddenly he could move closer to a league-average offensive piece in this lineup as opposed to the 85 wRC+ bat he was in 2024.
The Next Class
Then there are the players who’ve only been in the major leagues for a mere cup of coffee or have yet to make their big league debut.
After a 66 wRC+ showing in 54 games at Triple-A in 2024, House is likely to see a bit more time at the minor league level before making his big league jump.
If he can look more like the 127 wRC+ hitter he was in Double-A in 2023 or even the 110 wRC+ hitter he was at Double-A last season, then bringing him up could make a lot of sense in 2025.
If he can harness his 55 FV game power, 50 FV run tool and 60 FV fielding abilities, it will be worth it to see if he can work out the kinks with the hit tool at the big league level in order to develop into a contributor in the lower half of the lineup in 2026.
Then there’s Cavalli, who, regardless of whether the Nationals want to use him as a starter or a potential closer, will need time to pitch in the minors after pitching just 8.1 innings between the Complex League and High-A last season after missing all of 2023 to Tommy John.
There’s a win-win scenario in here for Washington, though. Whether Cavalli continues to use his prospect pedigree and well-regarded stuff as a starter or he transitions to the ‘pen to preserve his arm, there’s likely a role for him in the Nationals plans, potentially this year, but also in 2026 and beyond.
Finally, the array of middle-to-lower-end rotation arms, like Irvin, Herz, Parker, Soroka and Williams will prove to be great innings eaters in 2025, but none have the skill, the long-term contract, or both that would block Susana or Sykora from entering this rotation when ready. This means the youth movement will surely continue into 2026.
It’s Go Time in Washington… in 2026
It’s hard to look at this Nationals team with so much young talent at both the major league level and coming up in the pipeline and not get excited for what’s on the horizon, especially because they’re trying to field a somewhat competitive product in 2025.
Many of their future stars will be given most if not all of the 2025 season to assess their weaknesses and work to better them at the major league level, giving Washington a clearer picture of what their contention window will look like beyond 2025.
The other thing to consider here is how their 2025 season could impact the following offseason.
Should the Nationals approach or possibly even pass the 80-win threshold (which doesn’t seem like an impossible task), they could suddenly find themselves as a desirable destination for bigger-name free agents.
They’d be a team coming off a season around .500 with just about as bright a future as anyone in one of the bigger markets in the U.S.
It could be hard for a lot of free agents to pass up an opportunity like that if the Nationals come calling.
Moreover, with the way the Nationals trended upwards in 2024 and embraced that upward trajectory this offseason, combined with their top-tier prospect reinforcements on the way by 2026, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t get back into the postseason mix after this year.
So get ready Nationals fans, because sunny skies are ahead.