Top Prospect Drake Baldwin is the Next Big Call Up for the Braves

Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider were under-the-radar prospects before skyrocketing their way to being high-level Major Leaguers. The same could be true about Atlanta’s No. 1 catching prospect, Drake Baldwin.

The lefty flew through the Braves MiLB system in 2023, starting in High-A and ending the season in Triple-A. Now in 2024, this has been by far his most productive and exciting season, so much so that the Braves decided to send Baldwin to the 2024 All-Star Futures Game.

With Baldwin raking in Triple-A, showing his bat is all-but big league ready, the Braves soon have a tough decision on their hands. Do they keep Baldwin in the minors to develop?

Call him up to provide an offensive boost to the big-league team?

Or would they rather package him in a deal at the trade deadline to bolster other roster needs?

His recent surge of success at Triple-A and incredible performance at the Futures Game have caught the attention of fans and teams alike.

Early Pro-Career

Baldwin was selected in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, signing for about $630,000. The former Missouri State backstop began his career with a short-lived stint in the complex league before rounding out the 2022 season in Low-A.

As previously stated, 2023 saw Baldwin fly through the ranks of the Braves system, making stops at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, although he spent the majority of his time in High-A Rome.

While in Rome, Baldwin slashed .260/.385/.466, good for a 135 wRC+. Out of college, Baldwin’s scouting reports suggested that he was a power-over-hit guy, which he proved to be true by knocking out 14 bombs in 92 games.

He started the 2024 season with Double-A Mississippi and got off to a slower start than some might’ve expected. Through 52 games, Baldwin’s numbers dropped across the board. He was striking out more, hitting for power less often, and all around was just a lesser version of himself compared to his impressive 2023 campaign.

2024 Promotion to AAA

Despite posting just a 94 wRC+ in Double-A this season, Baldwin was promoted to Triple-A Gwinnett alongside another top Braves prospect, Nacho Alvarez Jr.

This was surprising considering Baldwin’s struggles and step back in production. However, the results since getting to Gwinnett have been otherworldly.

As of July 12th, Baldwin is slashing .309/.440/.532. He’s already hit six homers and three doubles while walking more than striking out.

The improvement across the board is unbelievable. He’s taken Triple-A by storm. He ranks ninth in wRC+ (min. 100 plate appearances) and he’s one of just three players to walk more often than striking out while boasting a wRC+ north of 150 (José Fermín and Spencer Horwitz).

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Baldwin’s profile is the contact rates. Not only does he rank in the 98th percentile (AAA) for 90th percentile exit velocity and average exit velocity, but he’s also making contact at a 93% clip.

His swing decisions have improved mightily, cutting back on chase and whiffing less. His SEAGER (a metric quantifying a hitter’s decision-making by calculating Z-Swing% – O-Swing%) is elite and proves that Baldwin is maturing rapidly.

Futures Game Performance

His good work is not going unnoticed. He was the lone Braves representative at the 2024 All-Star Futures Game. Last year, the Braves sent RHP Spencer Schwellenbach who has been great as of late for the major league club.

Baldwin was the DH for the NL squad and hit ninth in the lineup. In three plate appearances, he went 1-for-2 with two RBIs. The first RBI came from a sacrifice fly off of Astros RHP prospect A.J. Blaubaugh.

The second RBI was a solo home run into left-center field that put the NL Futures team up 5-1.

The homer came off a 93 MPH fastball from Blue Jays RHP prospect Fernando Perez on a 3-1 pitch.

The ball left Baldwin’s bat at 107.3 MPH, making it the hardest-hit ball of the game. Yes, Baldwin’s opposite-field homer was the hardest-hit ball in a game that was filled with the world’s most talented baseball prospects.

It also traveled 411 feet, making it the furthest-hit ball of the game. Baldwin was already making a name for himself among Braves Country but his performance in the Futures Game is going to introduce a whole new audience to the slugger that is Drake Baldwin.

Despite Baldwin leading the game in RBI and the homer, Reds prospect Cam Collier was named the MVP of the game. Collier hit a 409-foot homer in the top of the third.

Baldwin was one of three NL catchers, alongside Just Baseball’s #18 overall prospect Ethan Salas of the Padres, and Just Baseball’s #67 overall prospect Thayron Liranzo of the Dodgers. While Baldwin is the only backstop not currently on the Top 100 list, that could change in the near future.

The Future For Baldwin

On Episode #301 of The Call Up, Aram Leighton stated that Drake Baldwin is one of the players he’s most excited to see in person for the first time. He even hinted at Baldwin breaking into the Top 100 list soon.

A Potential Call-Up

Knowing how the Braves have handled prospects in the past, Drake Baldwin could see time in the Major Leagues sooner rather than later.

The aforementioned Strider and Harris and more recently, Spencer Schwellenbach all got called up quicker than most prospects. The catching position is very much blocked up with the Braves effectively alternating between Travis d’Arnaud and Sean Murphy every game and Chadwick Tromp acting as the third catcher.

An injury to one of d’Arnaud or Murphy would more than likely give Alex Anthopolous the perfect reasoning to call up Baldwin. Banking on an injury to a major leaguer isn’t an ideal path to the big league club, but that truly seems to be the only road. There’s not much positional utility here, as Drake has exclusively been a catcher throughout his professional career.

As far as what I would expect a potential 2024 debut to look like for Baldwin is a mixed bag. His catching behind the plate, which previously had been scouted as being below average has steadily improved as he’s gotten older.

His power output has continued to shine in his game, while at the same time making contact at a plus-plus rate. His hit tool as a whole has truly come into its own in 2024.

This is the same prospect who had a hit tool that scouts were unsure of when he was coming through the draft. The numbers at face value suggest confidence in his hit tool to be a reliable part of his game going forward.

However, we can take a closer look to break down what he might look like in the big leagues.

His ability to drive fastballs and breaking balls alike for damage is impressive, but the swing and miss at the breakers could become a problem at the next level. He’s struggled against offspeed pitches, too.

The biggest factor hindering his future value in the league at this current moment is the lack of results against plus velocity. Pitches that are 95 MPH or higher have crippled Baldwin’s production in Triple-A. He’s swinging through those pitches nearly 30% of the time.

Pair that with the poor whiff rates against breaking balls and we can see some clear holes in the catcher’s game at the plate. These issues that are below the surface at Triple-A would become far more apparent if he were to get the call to Atlanta. He still has things to work on and calling him up now might allow MLB pitchers to find these holes in his swing effectively. Mind you, this is a guy with just 128 plate appearances at Triple-A in his entire career, he’s still developing.

A fun thing I like to do with prospects is find MLB comparisons based on various advanced metrics using Python. This is done by comparing things like Z-Contact%, SEAGER%, 90th percentile EV, max EV, and Pull%.

These are incredibly intriguing comparisons. It’s important to note that these comparisons are not a set-in-stone reflection of how you can expect Baldwin to perform once he steps foot into a big-league batter’s box.

This is a small sample size of Baldwin seeing lower-level pitching compared to the five MLB players on this list with much larger sample sizes facing more difficult pitching.

Seeing the namesake of the SEAGER stat itself as the fourth closest MLB comparison on here can’t help but get me over the moon for Drake Baldwin’s potential, though. His batted ball data so far has been nothing shy of elite and improvements to the swing and miss on breaking balls as well as an adjustment to higher velocities would turn Baldwin into a surefire Top 100 prospect.

A Potential Trade Chip

As Braves and baseball fans in general know, Alex Anthopolous likes to play his cards close to his chest. He also isn’t keen on sending a young prospect with this kind of potential away, even if it means getting a piece that will improve the major league club immediately.

The Matt Olson and Sean Murphy trades sent prospects with far less excitement attached to their name. The biggest prospect in the Olson trade was Christian Pache. That was a situation that was much different from the situation at hand with Baldwin.

Pache had been given chances with the major league club and the prospect fatigue was growing rapidly for Pache in Atlanta. William Contreras was sent to Milwaukee in the three-team deal which sent a few of Atlanta’s young arms to Oakland and put Murphy in a Braves uniform. Parting with a talented player like Contreras was difficult but there was a direct and proven replacement.

Anthopolous will only pull the trigger on deals like this when he knows the Braves are going to win the trade and not lose out on a prospect on the verge of a breakout.

Before being traded to the San Diego Padres, Dylan Cease was on Anthopolous’ radar. The Braves GM ultimately held back from the deal because the White Sox were asking for too much in return. The past several trade deadlines have seen the Braves make more lateral moves instead of massive overhauls for big names at the expense of Atlanta’s premium youngsters.

I have doubts that the Braves will trade for a big fish at this year’s deadline. Pair that with the current climate of the trade market where there are many teams on the brink of contention. This leads me to believe there is a small chance that the Braves decide to use Baldwin as a trade chip at this year’s deadline.

As I’ve mentioned, there are still aspects of Baldwin’s game that need to be improved. Luckily, he should have the opportunity to stick in Triple-A for enough time to do so.

Travis d’Arnaud has an $8 million club option for 2025 and depending on Baldwin’s progression through the rest of the season, the Braves could see a chance to save some money and move on from the veteran d’Arnaud. Sean Murphy signed an extension that made him a Brave through the 2028 season, with a club option for 2029.

Since Baldwin is a left-handed hitter, there could be a chance to platoon Murphy and Baldwin in the coming years. While also being able to DH one, while starting the other on occasion, as we have seen the Braves do with Muprhy and d’Arnaud.

The immediate future remains to be seen for Baldwin. However, one thing is for sure; Drake Baldwin is one of the most exciting young prospects not only in the Braves farm system, but in the entirety of the minor leagues.