Top Notes From the Detroit Tigers ZiPS Projections for 2025

The Detroit Tigers have turned a page and have now established a new standard of winning baseball in the Motor City. After last season’s remarkable and improbable run to the postseason, the front office entered the offseason knowing improvements were still needed.

The Tigers addressed their rotation, which was decimated with injuries down the stretch, by adding veteran Alex Cobb and bringing back Jack Flaherty in a rare trade-and-re-sign months later.

Changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle will join the bullpen, and Gleyber Torres inked a one-year deal to help balance out the lineup. While a headline-grabbing mega-deal has not yet come together, the Tigers are a better, and deeper, team than they were in 2024.

As you know, baseball is full of numbers. Statistics and analytics drive discussion, even in the offseason. Today, I want to focus on the ZiPS projection system, a system created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs that has been refined over the past two decades.

ZiPS utilizes information such as a player’s past performances and general aging trends to help paint a picture of the type of season that player might have.

For a complete explanation of how it works, I suggest reading this article.

Although projection systems are not bulletproof, they do help us better understand where a team might be weaker or stronger and what type of overall production can be expected. For the Tigers, there are fun possibilities to imagine, along with some headscratchers. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Tigers ZiPS: Position Players

Detroit is once again rolling out a young team with plenty of upside. Young talent is hard for projection systems, but almost every key player has a higher WAR projection than their ZiPS forecast prior to last season.

Considering how much is still unknown about the floor and ceiling of some of these players, and possible additions still to be made, diving into this group is especially interesting.

Top takeaways from the Tigers position players’ projections:

• Second-year standouts – Young players taking a step forward will be crucial for the Tigers offense to climb out of what was mostly a year-long struggle. Dillon Dingler (2.5 WAR), Jace Jung (2.5), Trey Sweeney (2.3), and Colt Keith (2.3) are all projected to finish with better numbers than they produced last year.
  
  To see Dingler and Jung, tied for third among Tigers position players in projected WAR, reach that level of production would be massive, considering their poor play last season and Jung essentially filling what is a big question mark at third.
  
  Additionally, second-year player Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected for 1.0 fWAR and 15 home runs if he were to play a full season. With the need for a righty bat still present, Malloy carving out a role and holding his own would make this offense significantly deeper.
  

• Power could be a problem – Spencer Torkelson is projected to lead the team with 27 home runs, but we all know the current situation makes that projection lofty. Riley Greene, with 20 projected home runs, is the only other player to break 20. Although Kerry Carpenter (19) has dealt with injuries and a platoon role, I see a pretty clear path where he comfortably surpasses the others listed.
  
  The projections for Torres, Jung, Keith, Malloy, Sweeney, and Parker Meadows all fall between 14 and 17 long balls, but someone from that group will need to produce more power. Keith comes with the highest prospect upside and has shown power in the minors, while Torres has shown the ability to slug at the major league level.
  

• Gleyber Torres is more important than most think – Keep in mind, ZiPS does not only rely on last year’s production. Although Torres had a down year, his previous two seasons saw him hit 24 and 25 home runs along with a 114 and 120 wRC+. His 3.0 fWAR projection is second only to Greene’s 4.1. ZiPS projects a dip in his strikeout rate, an uptick in power, and a significant bounce back defensively.
  
  If Torres can provide a stable righty bat in the lineup, the Tigers are a much better team. History tells us a number of young players will outperform their projections, while others will likely significantly underperform. Torres offers a high baseline that will keep the lineup from bottoming out at times.
  

• The catching group thrives – The combination of Jake Rogers and Dillon Dingler is projected to produce more than 3.0 fWAR, which speaks volumes to ZiPS’s belief in Dingler’s bat and Rogers’s defense. We all know how important Rogers is behind the plate, but let’s not forget Dingler is no slouch. Rogers is projected for an 84 wRC+, a step up from last season, while Dingler’s projected 95 wRC+ would be a legitimate difference maker.
  
  Although Dingler was awful (37 wRC+) in his short stint in the majors in 2024, he was a slow starter at each level in the minors. His 17 home runs in 71 games at Triple-A, with a 10% walk rate, lead me to believe his projected offensive production is well within reach.
  

• A better version of Javier Báez – The Javy Báez contract has aged like milk. Each season of his as a Tiger has seen decreased production, both offensively and in the field, with 2024 being his first season as a negative fWAR player. Now presumably healthy, any sort of bounceback closer to average would make a significant difference.
  
  After finishing last season with a .184/.221/.294 slash and a 43 wRC+, ZiPS has Báez at .231/.275/.365 with an 81 wRC+ and 11 home runs. That would be his first double-digit homer season since his debut year with the Tigers. His defense is also projected to improve, resulting in a 1.0 fWAR projection, which I’d sign up for today.
  

Tigers ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Tarik Skubal proved his 2023 shortened season was no fluke by capturing the Triple Crown and Cy Young in 2024. Jack Flaherty was a big win for the staff and front office, while Reese Olson continued his impressive development. The bullpen, no matter the task, adjusted. In many ways, it was the team’s most important asset down the stretch.

• Skubal is still Skubal – Any time you put up a season like Skubal did in 2024, some variation of regression is expected. Being that dominant in back-to-back years is nearly impossible. The question becomes: How much drop-off to expect? According to ZiPS, not much.
  
  Skubal is projected to finish with 20 fewer innings, but his ERA (2.74) and FIP (2.62) remain stellar. I’d keep an eye on his average fastball velocity. After sitting around 95 miles per hour in his career, Skubal jumped to 97 mph in 2024. If he can remain at 97, watch out. The Tigers need him to be the ace he has shown he can be.
  

• Jackson Jobe is still developing – Jobe has the talent to be everything we have been promised as he has risen through the minors. However, as I keep pointing out, reaching his ceiling is going to take time. He’ll be 22 years old with less than 250 professional innings under his belt entering 2025. Likely on an innings restriction, I think his ZiPS projection of 101.3 innings is more than fair.
  
  The system also projects a 4.62 ERA, 4.75 FIP, and 7.02 K/9, all numbers most fans would expect to be better. Jobe did see a significant dip in his strikeout numbers in 2024, but I think he has the stuff to see those numbers improve. Be patient, he is far from a finished product, and the addition of Flaherty will help the Tigers ease him in.
  

• The Flaherty addition is massive – Bringing Flaherty back has a trickle-down effect that should not be understated. Adding his projected 3.86 ERA and 10.11 K/9 is obviously significant, but maybe even more important is how it moves everyone down a spot in the rotation.
  
  Not only can Jobe start in the minors, but Keider Montero now becomes a depth option. ZiPS has Montero projected for a 4.55 ERA and 4.61 FIP, which is fine, but considering the Tigers, in theory, replaced him with an arm that should be nearly a run better in ERA takes the rotation from solid to well above average.
  

• Don’t sleep on Chase Lee – Lee joined the organization at last year’s deadline after the Tigers moved Andrew Chafin to Texas for Lee and Joseph Montalvo. Lee quickly showed why the Tigers were interested once he posted a 2.75 FIP, 12.25 K/9, and 2.75 BB/9 for Triple-A Toledo.
  
  Detroit has turned several arms into above-average bullpen pieces, and Lee is projected to be the next in line. ZiPS projects a 3.70 ERA across 48.7 innings with an 8.87 K/9. The Tigers bullpen could use pitchers who offer more swing-and-miss stuff, and Lee has the profile to slide in and surprise some people.
  

• Alex Lange is not a lost cause – Speaking of swing-and-miss stuff, Alex Lange has some of the best to offer. Controlling those offerings has been a different story. After he posted an 8.20 BB/9 last year, the Tigers sent Lange back to Toledo where an injury shut him down. ZiPS thinks Lange can, at the very least, be an option for the Tigers.
  
  Projected for a 3.77 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 10.57 K/9, and 5.28 BB/9, Lange has a chance to reclaim a role. The best version of Lange produces strikeouts and a high groundball rate, making him the perfect fit, but his walks need to creep down. Returning closer to 4.5 BB/9 could make him effective enough to once again factor into the bullpen.
  

Tigers ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Although the Tigers do not have a projected superstar in their lineup, the added (projected) production from many young players is a welcomed sight. Whether we like it or not, young players will likely make up a large portion of the lineup, and how they produce will ultimately decide how far the Tigers go.

Shortstop has not only been a hole for the past few years, but Tigers shortstops have arguably been the least productive in the league. If Detroit can get close to 2.0 fWAR from the position, I’d consider that a big win.

Meanwhile, how first base shakes out with the moving piece of Keith and the question marks around Torkelson could be a big difference maker. If Torkelson can find a better version of himself, this team’s outlook is completely different.

Personally, I love what the rotation has to offer: Skubal and Flaherty leading the group, with Olson on a great trajectory, solid back-end options, and the best depth they have had in years. While the bullpen doesn’t have names average fans would know, the staff has earned our trust in their evaluations.

I see a team knocking on the door of another playoff berth, with or without any more additions. With Alex Bregman still a possibility, Tigers fans are primed for another exciting summer.