It’s Too Early to Decide Winners in the Rogers-Stowers Trade

This time last year, Orioles fans were anxiously awaiting to see what moves the front office would make to bolster one of the best teams in the American League. After losing Kyle Bradish to injury in late June, getting pitching help was the main goal to helping the team get deep into the postseason for the first time since 2014.

In perhaps the most shocking move from the deadline, Baltimore sent prospects Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to Miami in exchange for Trevor Rogers. 

Many fans knew that the team was likely to deal several of their top prospects, like Stowers and Norby, who were blocked by other players on the major league team. However, the trade deadline news cycle had started with the Orioles asking about Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease. 

So, when the trade was announced, fans across the league were shocked to see that it took two top organizational prospects to land a struggling pitcher on a struggling team. 

Since the trade, Stowers and Norby have been rubbing salt in the wound of Orioles fans. A stellar second half of 2024 from Norby and an All-Star first half in 2025 from Stowers has many Orioles fans asking, “What if we never traded those guys?”

After a miserable start to his Orioles career, Rogers has rebounded in his limited role so far in 2025. With injuries racking up in the rotation, Rogers has stepped up and provided stability. 

Nearly a year after the trade, let’s look back on how both teams have fared. 

Bopping in South Beach

Stowers’ journey in Baltimore was anything but easy. After making his debut in the 2022 season, and hitting a clutch game-tying home run off White Sox closer Liam Hendriks, O’s fans were expecting to see him play as the team welcomed more young guys to the team.

However, the Stowers’ experience stalled shortly after his arrival. After struggling in the majors, and the likes of Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad making their way to the big leagues, there was not any room for another left-handed outfield bat.

Ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, there was a strong belief that the young outfielder would be dealt. When news broke that Stowers and Norby were heading to Miami, many Orioles fans were shocked to see it was only for Rogers.

In 50 games with the Marlins in 2024, the lefty only managed a .186/.262/.295 slashline. The steady playing time was not helping improve his numbers.

So far in 2025, the player once stuck in limbo between Triple-A and the big leagues is now playing at an All-Star level.

A .280/.352/.509 slashline has earned Stowers a trip to Atlanta as the Marlins’ sole All-Star representative. If the lefty were still on the Orioles, he would lead the team in several offensive stat categories alongside fellow All-Star Ryan O’Hearn.

The 27-year-old has been an important cog for a Marlins team that has been one of the most surprising teams this year.

On the other hand, Connor Norby has taken a step back this year, after looking like the true prize of this for the Marlins a year ago. Norby is hitting just .240/.289/.364, with six home runs in 71 games played this year. Still, at just 25 years old, the jury is still out on Norby and what he will provide to the Marlins moving forward.

Rogers’ Regression to Redemption

Many pundits and fans across the league were puzzeled to see the Orioles trading two of their best prospects for a pitcher in Rogers who has struggled since his first full season in 2021.

Across 27 starts between 2022 and 2023, the southpath pitched toa 4.74 ERA and 4.23 FIP. Compare that to 2021 when Rogers finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and became an All-Star pitching to a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP.

When the 27-year-old arrived in Baltimore, he only lasted three weeks before being optioned to Triple-A. Going into this season, Rogers missed considerable time with a knee injury.

With Stowers killing it in Miami and Rogers stuck on the IL, as each day passed where Rogers was not contributing, it made the trade feel more like a catastrophic loss for the O’s.

However, since being activated from the IL the southpaw has looked the best he has in his career. In five starts in 2025, the lefty has pitched to a 1.57 ERA along with three quality starts.

In his recent Orioles Notebook article for Just Baseball, writer Daniel Rotter was able to ask interim manager Tony Mansolino about Rogers’ performances.

“He’s got a lot of confidence right now,” Mansolino noticed. “Even the first time we saw him in Boston, I didn’t think he had that kind of confidence. As a coach, you love to see the guys walk around and kind of stick their chest out and feel good about themselves. I think that’s kind of where Trev [Rogers] is at right now.”

A large part of the southpaw’s turn around has been the effectiveness of his fastball and changeup. For the first time since 2021, Rogers is posting positive wFA and wCH values. 

If Rogers is able to continue this success throughout the rest of the season, he could be a rock in a rotation that is holding on for dear life until reinforcements arrive from the IL.

Who’s the Winner, Who’s the Loser

When it comes to trades, we always want to pick winners and losers. In baseball it can be hard to do this because trades often involve talent that still have time before they reach the big leagues.

In this trade’s case, there were question marks for both sides. The Marlins were getting guys who dominated the minor leagues but were still adjusting to the bigs. The Orioles were receiving an arm that was three seasons removed from his best year.

If you asked Orioles fans in May what they thought of this trade, their opinions would probably contain words that we could not put in an article. However, if you asked fans now, you might find some more favorable responses.

The Orioles are in need of pitching, and Rogers is giving them just that. The Marlins were in need of young talent, and Stowers and Norby are providing just that.

While both teams are currently getting what they hoped for, fans should still hold out before determining the winners and losers of this trade.

If both sides can continue to show out, then we can consider whether both sides are winners or not. Until then, O’s fans should rejoice that Rogers has potentially turned a corner and could be a useful piece in Baltimore’s future.