Three Mariners Who Can Save Seattle’s Season

The Seattle Mariners are 17-13 over their last 30 games. That’s a .567 winning percentage (or a 92-win pace). It’s the same record in that span as the Astros, who just clinched the AL West. It’s a better record than Wild Card contenders like the Orioles, Royals, and Twins.

Unfortunately, it might be too little, too late. With the Mariners sitting 2.5 games back of a Wild Card berth (and without any tiebreaker advantages), they almost certainly need to win all four of their remaining games to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

They also need some help from at least two of the Tigers, Royals, and Twins, all of whom currently sit ahead of the Mariners in the AL Wild Card standings.

It’s no wonder FanGraphs has Seattle’s postseason odds at a slim 2.8%.

Still, the Mariners aren’t dead yet, and they certainly aren’t giving up the fight.

With four games left to play, here are three players who might just be able to help the Mariners save their 2024 season.

Three Mariners Who Can Save the 2024 Season

Julio Rodríguez

No surprises here. At his best, Julio Rodríguez is a game-changing superstar. That’s exactly what the Mariners need him to be over their final four contests.

Although he struggled for the first several months of the season, Rodríguez has finally started to look like his old self. Over the past month, he is batting .331 with eight home runs and 26 RBI. His .935 OPS and 167 wRC+ both rank among the top 10 qualified AL batters since August 25.

Even better, his 1.7 FanGraphs WAR ranks second, mere decimal points behind that of teammate Victor Robles.

Rodríguez rediscovering his star form has helped the Mariners get back in the race. He’ll need to keep it up if they’re going to have any chance of pulling off this miraculous comeback.

J.P. Crawford

Seattle’s offense has finally turned things around. After five months characterized by mediocrity, the Mariners lead the American League with a .791 OPS in September. Their 132 wRC+ is the best in baseball.

The biggest contributors have been a red-hot Robles and a resurgent Rodríguez, but nearly every batter in the lineup has played a part. Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Justin Turner, and Randy Arozarena are all hitting well.

One notable exception? J.P. Crawford.

After an incredible breakout season in 2023, Crawford is batting .202 with a .631 OPS and 91 wRC+ in 2024. And whatever magic is blessing so many of his teammates in September seems to have skipped over Crawford; he’s hitting .216 with a .596 OPS and 86 wRC+ this month.

We know Crawford has the potential to be an on-base machine with sneaky power. If he can tap into those skills over the final four games of the season, the Mariners’ offense will be that much stronger.

George Kirby

The Mariners will wrap up their 2024 season with a three-game set against the Athletics at T-Mobile Park.

Before they get to that easy series, however, they have one game remaining against the AL West champions in Houston. That matchup, scheduled to begin this afternoon at 1:10 pm local time, is the most critical contest remaining on Seattle’s schedule.

George Kirby will take the hill for today’s game, and the Mariners will be counting on the All-Star hurler to lead them to victory.

Kirby has made three starts against the Astros this year, tossing six innings of one-run ball each time. Unfortunately, the Mariners gave him just seven runs of support across those outings. They went on to lose two of those three games.

This time Kirby will have the support of the September Mariners, who are averaging more than five runs per game. Combine that sizzling offense with Kirby’s typical excellence on the mound, and you have a pretty good recipe for a win.

Bonus: Andrés Muñoz

The Mariners’ All-Star closer won’t be able to save their season single-handedly. He needs the rest of the team to put him in a position to close out a victory before he can do his job.

However, if Seattle can generate enough offense and the pitching staff can hand some leads over to Andrés Muñoz, he will play a crucial role in keeping the Mariners alive.

Dating back to August 15, Muñoz has given up eight earned runs in 13 innings, resulting in four losses and two blown saves. I don’t need to tell you that’s not good, especially for a closer on a team with postseason aspirations.

The Mariners have no more margin for error, which means one more late-season slip-up from Muñoz could seal their fate. It’s a good thing, then, that the right-hander still has elite underlying numbers during this rough patch, including a 38.9% strikeout rate and a 2.49 SIERA.

How Can the Mariners Make the Postseason?

Currently, the Royals and Tigers are tied for the final two AL Wild Card spots. Both teams have 83 wins, while the Mariners have 81 wins.

The Tigers, Royals, and Twins all hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, which means Seattle must win at least 84 games to earn a Wild Card berth. That means they can only lose one of their remaining four games. If they lose twice, they’re out.

Even then, the Mariners have to hope that at least one of the Royals and Tigers lose all five of their remaining games (and that the Twins lose at least three of their five remaining games).

If the Mariners can win all four of the games left on their schedule, they’ll finish with 85 wins. In that scenario, they’ll need two of the Tigers, Royals, and Twins to finish with 84 wins or fewer. For the Tigers and Royals, that means going no better than 1-4 over their final five games. For the Twins, that means going no better than 3-2 over their final five games.