Three Extensions Juan Soto’s Deal Turns Into Bargains

Every winter, there’s one superstar free agent whose journey to signing with a new team becomes the narrative of the offseason. Last year, it was two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who eventually signed a historic 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This winter, it was slugger Juan Soto, and on December 8, he signed an incredible 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets, breaking the record set by Ohtani just last offseason for the largest contract in professional sports history based on total value.

Major League Baseball is certainly no stranger to mega-deals, but Soto’s new contract shines a new light on earlier multi-million dollar pacts. Could current top players, now locked into deals for the next decade and beyond, have signed more lucrative contracts if they had been able to hold off for another season or two? With Soto’s deal setting the value of players across MLB, here are three giant contract extensions that now look like bargains.

Three Contract Extensions Dwarfed by Juan Soto’s Deal with New York Mets

Julio Rodríguez — 12 years, $210 million (2023-35)

Just four months after Julio Rodríguez made his major league debut, the Seattle Mariners signed then-21-year-old outfielder to a 12-year, $210 million deal on August 26, 2022. The contract included a number of complex club options and award incentives that could bring up its total value to $470 million over 17 years (2023-2039), which — at the time — would have made it the richest deal in American sports history.

Rodríguez’s base deal is for $120 million over seven seasons — including a $15 million signing bonus — and while that will run through 2029, the Mariners must determine whether they’re exercising their club option by the end of 2028, which is dictated by the outfielder’s performance in AL MVP voting. If the Mariners opt in, the contract will convert to a duration of either eight or 10 years — starting from 2030 — and range in value from $200 million to $350 million depending on where Rodríguez finishes in MVP balloting during the preceding seasons.

If the Mariners don’t exercise their club option, Rodríguez is able to exercise a five-year, $90 million player option after the 2029 season, though performance incentives based on All-Star selections and Silver Slugger Awards can increase the option’s value to $125.5 million. He can also decide not to exercise that player option and become a free agent after 2029.

A historic day for Julio and Mariners fans!

We have agreed to a long-term contract extension with All-Star Julio Rodríguez, including 12-guaranteed years through the 2034 season and options that could run through the 2039 season. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/JXXQ8IDn5X

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) August 27, 2022

Rodríguez’s contract is almost comically complicated, so to clarify, the 12-year, $210 million ground floor is based on the initial seven-year period ($120 million) plus the five-year player option at its minimum value (90 million). That sets the deal’s annual average value (AAV) at $17.5 million, but it could reach as high as $27.6 million if all escalators come into effect. Based on which options are exercised — or not — the contract could be worth seven, 12, 15, or 17 years.

At the time of signing, Rodríguez was 21 years old, still multiple seasons from even being eligible for arbitration, and wouldn’t have entered free agency until after 2027. Considering the rate at which contract values are increasing, Rodríguez almost certainly would’ve secured a bigger deal if he’d waited to start a bidding war in free agency, especially since his deal doesn’t even approach the value of Soto’s new one with the Mets. Still, Rodríguez wouldn’t have made nearly as much money during his pre-arbitration and arbitration years if he hadn’t signed this contract, and with total potential earnings of up to $470 million, he’s unlikely to hold too much regret over the whole thing.

Bobby Witt Jr. — 11 years, $288.7 million (2024-34)

It’s been less than a year since the Kansas City Royals signed shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to the largest contract in franchise history, and so far, it’s safe to say that things are going well. Still, recent signings have made the 24-year-old’s deal — which has an AAV of $26.24 million — look like a bargain.

On February 5, 2024, Witt signed an 11-year, $288.7 million contract with the Royals, likely locking him in to play for the team for the rest of his career. In addition to a $7.7 million signing bonus to be paid in seven installments, the deal specified that Witt would earn $2 million in 2024, $7 million in 2025, $13 million in 2026, $19 million in 2027, $30 million in 2028, $35 million in each of 2029 and 2030, and $35 million (player options) for each of the four seasons from 2031-34.

The contract also includes an $89 million club option for the three-season period of 2035-2037, meaning the deal has a potential total value of $377.7 million over 14 years, if all player and club options are exercised.

Without this extension, Witt wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and it would’ve taken until after the 2027 season for him to become a free agent. Could he have made more money in a bidding war on the market? Almost certainly, but considering the shortstop’s loyalty to the Royals, he likely would’ve ended up in Kansas City on a relatively team-friendly deal — if you can call $288.7 million “team-friendly” — regardless.

Fernando Tatís Jr. — 14 years, $340 million (2021-34)

Going into the 2021 season, shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. hadn’t yet reached arbitration eligibility, and was still three seasons away from becoming a free agent for the first time. Still, the San Diego Padres knew they had to lock the then-22-year-old down before losing him to another team was even a question — and that’s exactly what they did.

On February 17, 2021, the Padres signed Tatís to a 14-year, $340 million contract extension, the largest ever awarded to a player not yet eligible for arbitration, and — at the time — the third-largest deal by amount in MLB history only behind those signed by the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Mookie Betts. The contract includes a full no-trade provision through 2028, after which Tatís will have the ability to block a trade to 13 teams for the remainder of the deal.

Under the contract, Tatís was paid a $10 million signing bonus, and a $1 million salary for the 2021 season. During 2022, 2023, and 2024 — the three seasons he would’ve been eligible for arbitration — he received salaries of $5 million, $7 million, and $11 million, respectively. Tatís will earn $20 million in each of 2025 and 2026, $25 million in each of 2027 and 2028, an $36 million in each of the final six seasons (2029-2034). The contract carries an AAV of $28.29 million.

Tatís wasn’t yet eligible for arbitration when he signed his mega-deal, and he wouldn’t have become a free agent until after the 2024 season. It’s clear the Padres saw his value and organized an extension quickly, and they likely got a bargain by doing so. Had Tatís waited, he would’ve been on the market this offseason alongside Soto, so among the three players listed here, he’s arguably the easiest one to compare to current contract values.

There’s no denying that the outfielder’s 14-year, $340 million deal is incredible, even by current values, but Soto’s AAV is almost double that of Tatís. This offseason, most giant deals have gone to pitchers — topped by Blake Snell (five years, $182 million) and Max Fried (eight years, $218 million) — but shortstop Willy Adames’ seven-year, $182 million deal (AAV of $26 million) proves position players are also locking down big numbers. Considering Tatís’ career .279/.350/.533 line is substantially more impressive than Adames’ career .248/.322/.444 line, the Padres almost certainly would’ve had to stretch to an even bigger deal to lock down their star slugger had he been on the market this winter.