Where Will Juan Soto Sign in Free Agency?

Every winter there’s one big name that is the “market-setter” for the entire offseason, and then the dominoes seem to fall after they sign their contract.

Last year it was Shohei Ohtani signing his 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Two offseasons ago, it was Aaron Judge and his nine-year, $360 million contract to come back to the New York Yankees.

And this year’s offseason might have the most unique market-setting name available for teams to sign, and that’s Juan Soto.

Soto hits the open market at the absurdly young age of 26. He has one of the best approaches at the plate among this generation’s hitters, and he’s coming off his best statistical season of his career, resulting in him being named a 2024 AL MVP finalist.

This all makes Soto one of the best MLB free agents of all-time, and certainly the top name in this year’s MLB free agent class.

There will be no shortage of suitors for a player of Soto’s caliber, with numerous contenders vying for his franchise-altering signature.

So as he reportedly begins to sit down to formal meetings with potential suitors, let’s look at where he might land this winter and what the terms of a potential contract might look like for him.

The Potential Landing Spots

New York Yankees

After having an MVP-caliber season and just falling short of a World Series title in 2024 with the Yankees, it’s not hard to see the link between these parties.

Soto is familiar with baseball in the Bronx, and in his first season in pinstripes, he seemed to have benefitted mightily from the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium slashing .285/.401/.559 with 20 HR and 59 RBI at his home ballpark this season.

And in terms of the team that would surround him, he’d remain in a well-protected spot in that lineup to see pitches, with the likes of the presumptive 2024 AL MVP in Judge hitting just below him. The thought of being part of the likely 2025 outfield mix of himself, Judge, and Just Baseball’s No. 7 overall prospect Jasson Dominguez for the foreseeable future would be a tempting proposition.

Given the Yankees’ deep pockets, their recent track record of signing big names, and the fact their coming off their most successful season in 15 years, makes them a very strong candidate to re-sign Soto this winter.

New York Mets

With the amount of money owner Steve Cohen has at his disposal, the Mets will be projected to be in on a lot of the big name free agents this offseason.

And in terms of Soto, it’s more than just the Cohen fortune that creates a link between him and the Mets.

The outfield is an area that Mets could benefit from some upgrading in.

Their current outfield anchor Brandon Nimmo just came off a season where his average dropped 50 points, his OBP 36 points, his SLG 67 points, and his wRC+ fell by 21 from his 2023 totals, according to FanGraphs.

And in terms of Nimmo’s supporting cast, Starling Marte will be turning 37 in 2025 and is coming off a season where he missed nearly two months due to injury, Jeff McNeil has dramatically dropped off from his NL batting title season in 2022, and despite some big-time contributions in the 2024 postseason, Tyrone Taylor was still a below average bat in the regular season with a 98 wRC+.

This resulted in the Mets outfield ranking in the middle of the pack in AVG (15th), OBP (13th), SLG (20th), wRC+ (17th) and fWAR (13th).

With the familiarity of New York City, along with a Lindor-led offense and the magical season they just had, the Mets undoubtedly make an intriguing case for any big-name star.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies had one of the most complete rosters in baseball in 2024, and a lot of their core pieces will be back in the fold in 2025.

But after falling short of postseason expectations for the second year in a row, there are undoubtedly questions to be asked about what can be done to get back to the World Series and ultimately win it for the first time since 2008.

Like the Mets, the Phillies also lack that game-changing element to their outfield and could benefit greatly from a significant upgrade.

Nick Castellanos has been underwhelming in his three seasons in Philadelphia in comparison to his very strong 2021 season in Cincinnati. After posting a 140 wRC+ with the Reds that year, Castellanos has failed to post a wRC+ higher than 109 since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love.

And Castellanos’ supporting cast also looked painfully average in 2024. Marsh fell off across the board this season after a breakout year in 2023, including a 17-point drop in wRC+. And Johan Rojas, Austin Hays and Weston Wilson are all essentially replacement-level players or platoon bats.

And other than ranking ninth in MLB in AVG, Philadelphia’s outfield was in the middle of the pack across the board in other major statistical metrics, ranking 15th in OPS, 18th in SLG, 18th in wRC+ and 19th in fWAR.

President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski hasn’t shied away from making a big offseason splash, with Trea Turner and his 11-year, $300 million contract being the prime example of his spending capabilities in his time with the Phillies.

The Phillies can offer Soto one of the best lineups to support him. If he were to join the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto at the top of that lineup, it would give him a great shot at capturing his second career World Series title.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays might be the most unique team on this list, as after a 74-win season, if they wanted to commit to a rebuild no one would blame them.

But after the front office duo of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins committed to competing again in 2025, the Blue Jays could look to make a big splash on the open market.

And after last offseason when they were the reported runner up in the Ohtani sweepstakes, Toronto has shown their hand as being serious players when it comes to going after big name free agents.

The Jays have needs to fill in the outfield. Daulton Varsho is a lineup lock for his world-class defense, but apart from that, there are definitely question marks. George Springer is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, in which he posted just a .674 OPS in 145 games.

And with young prospects like Addison Barger and Joey Loperfido and fringe major league bats like Nathan Lukes and Jonatan Clase currently slated to see some time in the outfield next season, there is certainly room for Soto’s star power on that front.

And as a team, Toronto’s outfield offense was very poor in 2024, summed up by MLB’s fifth lowest wRC+ total of 85, meaning Soto could immediately come in and fill a desperately needed role.

With a strong piece atop the order in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and an All-Star talent in Bo Bichette looking to bounce back after an injury-ridden season to forget in 2024, the possibility of forming a tantalizing trio could be a serious draw for Soto.

Los Angeles Dodgers

There’s not much to explain here in terms of fit. Soto is one of the league’s premier bats and the Dodgers are the league’s top team after winning the 2024 World Series.

With Teoscar Hernández currently a free agent, there’s now a wide open space in the outfield the Dodgers will need to fill this winter.

With some of the league’s biggest names signing some of the most financially lucrative deals in the league with Dodgers, there is a real possibility they’d consider bringing in another top-tier talent.

And what a scary lineup that could be with Soto paired with the three MVPs in Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman leading the charge, and then an elite supporting cast behind them of Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Tommy Edman.

The possibility of being part of that strong of a lineup and winning culture would be a draw for any major talent in baseball.

San Francisco Giants

After coming so close on so many free agents within the past few seasons, there’s no doubt in my mind that Giants will look to try and haul in the biggest fish in free agency.

From missing out on Ohtani to signing Carlos Correa before undoing the deal due to health concerns, to signing “Arson Judge” but ultimately missing out on Aaron Judge, the Giants seem desperate to make that marquee signing and not waste the contract extension of their top-notch ace Logan Webb.

New President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey would likely be over the moon if the Giants could add Soto to lead an outfield group currently headlined by a young up-and-coming bat in Heliot Ramos, a healthy Jung Hoo Lee, and lineup as a whole headlined by Matt Chapman.

While they may not have the same lineup protection that other suitors can offer, they’re still a larger market ball club looking to compete in 2025 that has been finalists for big name free agents in the past. I anticipate they’ll likely be in the mix once again this winter.

Boston Red Sox

The large-market and storied Boston Red Sox franchise will always land on the list of suitors for high profile free agents. And Soto will be no different.

The Red Sox have a promising outfield of the future already with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, and Just Baseball’s No. 1 prospect in Roman Anthony just around the corner.

That being said, a generational talent like Soto is always a name to pursue if you have the means to do so, and then you resolve any lineup issues later.

And while the Red Sox already had a fairly high profile offense, ranking in the top 10 in AVG (6th), OBP (9th) and SLG (6th), imagine how much better they can be if they were to add Soto to the mix.

With the financial means to make this move happen, along with a current core of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas at the top of that order, Soto could slot in nicely with them and would put the Red Sox in an even better place to contend for a postseason spot in 2025.

What is Juan Soto’s Projected Contract?

Before we discuss which team Soto will sign with, let’s look into the framework for Juan Soto’s contract projection.

We should prepare ourselves for the fact that Soto is going to challenge a lot of norms this winter when it comes to both the financial aspect of this contract as well as the length, given how talented of a hitter he is and just how much younger he is than the traditional free agent.

In terms of length, Soto seems poised to challenge the 14-year extension that Fernando Tatis Jr. signed with the Padres a few years ago, and possibly exceed it.

His agent, Scott Boras, has been known to sign massive length of contracts, like the 13-year deal Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies 2019, or the 10-year deal Manny Machado signed with Padres in 2019, or looking back even further to the year 2000 when Álex Rodríguez signed a 10-year deal with the Rangers.

A 14-year contract just makes so much sense. Soto can sign a deal now that would take him to the age of 40, and never have to worry about free agency again.

In terms of value of the deal, don’t expect him to exceed Ohtani’s $700 million dollars, but when we look at the present day value of that heavily-deferred contract, Soto has a chance to exceed it.

When a contract is deferred, it lowers the present-day value of the deal, and in turn, that lowers what the AAV number is calculated to be when it comes to the competitive balance tax. For Ohtani, this means a contract worth closer to $460 million, with a $46 million AAV number as it relates to the tax.

You can expect that Juan Soto’s agent, Boras, will be looking to top one of these numbers on this deal. Whether that is over $460 million in present-day value (don’t expect him to take deferrals). Or if that is getting north of $46 million per season.

With that said Soto looks poised to become just the sixth player to meet or exceed the $40 million AAV. But expect Soto to challenge for the next highest AAV behind Ohtani, surpassing the $43.3 million AAVs of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

One of our hosts of the Just Baseball Show Peter Appel predicted a 14-year, $630 million deal for Soto, and I tend to agree with him.

Boras likes to go big with his clients, and when a generational talent comes around I expect him to attempt to land him on a groundbreaking deal.

This would have Soto at $45 million a year, which would make him the highest-paid player per year not named Ohtani. It would also have him blowing out Ohtani’s contract by over $150 million when it comes to present-day value.

At the end of the day, generational talents like Soto deserve to sign generational contracts, and $45 million a year for a record 14-year contract seems groundbreaking to me.

Where Will He End Up?

We’ve discusses financials, length of term and now it’s a matter of who’s he going to sign this contract with.

And it may sound unoriginal, but the Yankees seem to have everything that Soto will want for the next decade-and-a-half.

They worked so well as an offense with him, taking home 2024 Team Silver Slugger honors, and the duo of him and Judge back-to-back in that lineup proved beneficial to both their numbers.

As a left-handed hitter, being able to hit to that short porch in right field might only stand to build and exceed the career high in homers he belted this season.

And at the end of the day, the Yankees are one of just three teams that can truly outspend anyone, alongside the Mets and the Dodgers. So if you pair that with what was an enjoyable “trial run” in 2024 for Soto in New York, this is the perfect scenario for him.

So all in all, the final prediction: Juan Soto resigns with the Yankees on a 14-year, $630 million deal

Now all that’s left to do is wait and see.