SWEEP! The Tigers were a no-brainer as they got out to an early lead and never looked back, winning 8-2, and cashing a -120 ML. The Phillies and Twins over got real sweaty, as the Phillies scored two in the first and never scored again. Credit to Ober, he found the command for his changeup and diced them up. Luckily, the Twins offense carried the load and we went over the total in the eighth inning.

Let’s carry that momentum into today with one pick that I love.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 87-88 (-5.77 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn (4.39 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (1.90 ERA)

This pitching matchup is as lopsided as yesterday’s game between the Tigers and Guardians. We have a grizzly veteran who’s not throwing the ball well and is facing off against the closest thing baseball has to Superman. The Pirates are priced as if Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I’m here to argue he is the best pitcher in baseball at the moment, and that’s why I see value in going with the Pirates through the first five innings.

Anyone who turns on the TV every fifth day to watch Paul Skenes’ throw might come to the same conclusion. We all see the 102 MPH fastball with the 93 MPH splinker and two breaking ball variations. What blows my mind every time is the 50% ground-ball rate. The fact that he’s keeping his contact on the ground is impressive for a pitcher who locates up in the zone with his fastball.

The only comparison I can think of is 2021 Zack Wheeler, when he put up a 50% ground-ball rate. However, he didn’t have Skenes’ strikeout or walk numbers. Skenes also has better stuff than 2021 Wheeler.

Right now, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. If you don’t believe that, you probably won’t see much value on this line, considering we must pay 30 cents extra to win a unit on a first five-run line. That’s a massive number for a Pirates team against the Cardinals, but luckily, Lance Lynn should help us get there.

Lance Lynn is on fade watch for the second half. As you can see from the image from Baseball Savant, respectfully, he has no redeeming qualities this season, and all of his ERA estimators imply regression is coming. He’s also 37 years old; how much longer can he rely on 90-93 MPH fastballs?

The only thing Lynn does at a slightly above-average rate is getting whiffs (swings and misses). However, the Pirates rank 14th in whiff rate against Lynn’s five offerings (fastball, cutter, sinker, slider, and changeup). If we look at his variations of fastballs (which take up 87% of his arsenal), the Pirates climb into tenth in both xwOBA and whiff rate. Based on how the Pirates have seen these pitches, this is a tougher-than-average matchup for Lance Lynn.

What is the average against Lance Lynn this season? I’m glad you asked; it’s terrible. Opponents are averaging 3.4 runs per game against Lynn through the first five innings this season. The Pirates faced him already this year in St Louis, scoring three runs in four innings. Now Lynn makes another start against them on the road, where he’s rocking a 5.36 ERA.

Skenes’ SIERA is 2.40, and Lynn sits with a 4.28. That is almost a two-run difference in the most important ERA predictor. No wonder we have to pay for juice.

The last time Skenes faced the Cardinals, he destroyed them for 6.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Should I be worried about a second time around? No, not really. He faced the Cubs twice, and the second time he faced them, he threw a six-inning no-hitter with 12 strikeouts. The man is incredible.

The Cardinals have the better offense, but they have yet to hit high velocity well this year. On pitches 97 MPH or higher thrown by right-handers, they have a .266 xwOBA, ranking 24th in the league. 98 MPH and above is a .269 xwOBA. 99 MPH and above drops to .242. You get the point: they are below league average against high velocity.

If we remove the names from the jerseys and look at the matchups, the Pirates have a matchup in which they’ve proven to be a fridge top-ten offense, while the Cardinals are below average against this pitch mix. Then you put the names back on the jerseys; we have Paul Skenes, and they have Lance Lynn.

The Pirates are also playing really good ball. They are 8-2 in their last ten games and in the hunt here. The Cardinals have lost six of their last ten games and have a worse run differential than the Pirates this season (-10 vs. -32). The Cardinals are also playing four games over .500 at home but are playing .500 ball on the road.

Yeah, it’s pretty square. It always will be with Skenes on the mound. I’ll live and die with Skenes today and take the Pirates to win through five innings on the run line to -145. The Cardinals have the bullpen advantage in this game, so I’ll stick with Skenes winning early.

The Pick: Pirates First 5 Innings -0.5 (-130) Risk 1.3 Units