Top Notes From the St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS Projections for 2025

Sitting at a crossroads in the franchise’s history, the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the more interesting teams entering the 2025 campaign.

Looking at that crossroads, it seems the Cardinals sit squarely in the middle when it comes to the direction in which they are heading. Case in point involves All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is still on the team (at the time of this writing) despite president of baseball operations John Mozeliak telling reporters that trading Arenado was “priority one, two and three.”

The effort to send Arenado away (on the right deal that would convince him to waive his no-trade clause) has stalled the Cardinals all offseason.

Outside of letting veteran pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson go by turning down their club options and not offering first baseman Paul Goldschmidt a new contract (turning him into a free agent who was eventually signed by the New York Yankees), this year’s Cardinals team feels in many ways like the same one that took the field in 2024.

That’s not necessarily a good thing in the eyes of many Cardinals fans, who let their displeasure about the team’s direction be heard last season by not coming to Busch Stadium. Last season marked the full season since the current Busch Stadium opened in 2006 in which fewer than three million fans walked through the gates (the Cardinals attracted 2.9 million last year).

So, what do this year’s ZiPS projections say for the Cardinals? Let’s dive into that below. You can also find a detailed article explaining what ZiPS is and how it works on FanGraphs, written by ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski.

St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS: Position Players

Let’s start with a sobering thought for Cardinals fans. Arenado’s projected 3.1 fWAR is tied for the highest for any player on the St. Louis roster … and he is currently the one that the team is looking to trade.

The players who may replace Arenado at third base are Thomas Saggese (projected 1.8 fWAR) and Nolan Gorman (projected 2.1 fWAR), so projections show those two to be downgrades at the position. Of course, replacing a 10-time Gold Glove winner won’t be easy on any level, so Cardinals fans will likely have to temper their expectations at the hot corner this season.

There’s the bad news for Cardinals fans. So what’s the good news? Arenado is tied at the top of the WAR projections with 22-year-old shortstop Masyn Winn, who came into his own last season with a historic rookie campaign, becoming just the fourth primary rookie shortstop in MLB history to total 15 home runs, 150 hits and 10 stolen bases in a season.

Those 15 home runs, by the way, were a goal for Wynn in the spring, and now Wynn is already discussing how he can ramp up his stolen base numbers to 30 or even 40 this season. Don’t put anything past him, but the ZiPS projections have him with 14 homers and 13 steals this season. Both of those numbers seem low.

What will a move to first base mean for Willson Contreras? His 2.9 projected fWAR would be more than what he put forth last season (2.6 fWAR) … and it would be 1.8 more than Goldschmidt produced at first last year.

Meanwhile, Contreras’s replacements behind the plate, Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, are expected to produce a combined 3.0 fWAR (per ZiPS Depth Charts), so the move seems to favor an overall improvement for the infield.

Jordan Walker’s evolution is projected to take an upward swing this season; ZiPS forecasts 0.8 fWAR for the 22-year-old outfielder.

While that may not sound like much, consider that Walker put up -0.6 fWAR last season despite a very strong September. If he can show he is the full-time answer in right field for the Cardinals this season, answering that question alone will be a huge relief for the franchise moving forward.

St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS: Pitching Staff

With Lynn and Gibson jettisoned, Sonny Gray is the sole survivor of last season’s “let’s add veterans to the rotation and see how it works out” plan for the Cardinals.

The plan worked out for Gray at least, as the veteran right-hander made 28 starts and logged 3.8 fWAR last year. This season, ZiPS is a little more reserved with Gray, projecting him to make 26 starts and post 2.9 fWAR. Even that slight backtick would be tough for the Cardinals to absorb.

Erick Fedde (projected 1.4 fWAR), who split time between the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis last year, will enter his first full season in the Cardinals rotation.

Add in familiar faces Mike Mikolas (projected 1.1 fWAR) and Andre Pallante (projected 1.4 fWAR), and it’s easy to envision what the front and middle of the Cardinals rotation will look like … and it’s not one that ZiPS thinks will be overpowering. In fact, the WAR projections for Fedde, Mikolas, and Pallante are all lower than what those three produced in 2024.

Two young arms to keep an eye on are Tink Hence and Drew Rom, each of whom will likely have an impact on the rotation in 2025. ZiPS projects that each could chip in with approximately 1.0 fWAR, but their upside is certainly higher than that of Mikolas, who is most likely pitching his final season under the Gateway Arch.

Michael McGreevy is another young arm who could impact the Cardinals in a big way in 2025. In fact, his 1.8 projected fWAR is the second-highest of any St. Louis pitcher, behind only Gray. After appearing in just four games (three starts) last year, the 24-year-old right-hander may be a key cog this season.

The biggest asset for the Cardinals’ pitching staff could arguably be their closer, Ryan Helsley. The 30-year-old right-hander set a franchise record with 49 saves last season while posting a 2.04 ERA/2.41 FIP.

Those numbers will be tough to duplicate in 2025 (which is the last year of his current contract in St. Louis), and ZiPS is being conservative about his impact this year, projecting 35 saves and a 2.77 ERA/2.86 FIP.

With a lineup that is expected to take a step back, as well as a rotation that may do the same, just how many save chances Helsley will get in 2025 will be a storyline to watch. It will also bear watching to see exactly where Helsley is pitching after the trade deadline.

St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Perhaps the motto for Cardinals fans heading into this season should read: “Be prepared for anything.”

How soon will the Arenado drama end? What young players will be given a chance to shine … and which ones will take advantage of the opportunity? How many chances will Helsley and the back end of the bullpen be given to flex their muscles? Will manager Oliver Marmol make it through the season?

All of these questions are reasonable ones … and they are also ones that will determine exactly how the Cardinals will look heading into the 2026 campaign when Chaim Bloom takes over for Mozeliak and begins to form the club in his image.

The latest PECOTA projections have the Cardinals finishing 78-84 in 2025, which would be a step back from last season’s 83-79 record. Those PECOTA numbers fall in line with what ZiPS is saying about several key players backtracking this season, so there shouldn’t be too much surprise there.

But will the Cardinals be able to outperform any of these projections? The answer could lie within the biggest riddle the franchise is facing at the moment. Where is Arenado heading and what will the return be for him?

Until that question is answered, the Cardinals appear to be stuck in neutral (or slightly trending in reverse), and that’s a direction that this very proud franchise simply isn’t used to being in heading into a new season.