Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Shane Bieber

It feels wrong to consider this former AL Cy Young winner something of a flyer in free agency, but it’s rather difficult to gauge his market this winter. He was phenomenal in a pair of April starts before he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Shane Bieber has spent his entire career with Cleveland, but they’re not often the type of organization to spend big on uncertain assets. They’ll still be in play, but contenders with the depth to wait on Bieber’s return will certainly be interested.

He’s not likely to return until mid-season and will take time to ramp up. Whoever does ink Bieber will do so with eyesight on the second half of the season and, more importantly, the postseason.

His resume is strong with a Cy Young, a career 3.22 ERA, and 62 wins across 843 innings. However, he was hurt for large chunks of 2021 and 2023, the latter being his worst year since his rookie season. His stuff ticked down in 2023, but he tossed 12 shutout innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk to start 2024 before he was shut down.

Bieber’s upside alone is worth taking a chance on for most contenders, especially on a back-loaded deal that keeps him around beyond just the few months he could pitch in 2025. A two or three-year agreement with an option potentially involved seems to be the likely outcome.

The details of his contract might be fairly complex, but where Shane Bieber signs could be a little more straightforward in terms of who can take on the risk. Let’s look at some options for the veteran right-hander.

Cleveland Guardians

The first option has to be remaining with the team with whom he has spent his entire career, despite it feeling less-than-likely at this point. Cleveland drafted Bieber in 2016, and he has been the leader of their staff for quite some time.

Emotionally, Bieber staying in Cleveland would feel right. And from a roster perspective, this team desperately needs starting pitching upside and depth. The Guardians didn’t really have a true rotation behind Tanner Bibee and still made it to the ALCS.

While they would still have to patch together the staff while Bieber ramps up, he could eventually be a big boost for a team looking to defend a division title. Cleveland doesn’t often spend what it will take to keep Bieber, especially on short-term deals, but maybe the Guardians can be the team to include a third year or a player option to make their offer more enticing.

New York Mets

Sometimes a surprise run in the postseason can shift the game plan for a team in the offseason. Yet, I’m not sure much of anything has changed for the Mets, aside from wanting to retain a few more pieces from their 2024 roster. This team with Steve Cohen at the helm is ready to compete and spend what it takes to do just that.

The first task of the offseason is trying to convince Juan Soto to switch sides of town, which the Mets have a legit shot to do given that they’ll seemingly outbid anyone. That is their clear priority, but the next step is bolstering and reloading their pitching staff with Kodai Senga the sole set-in-stone rotation piece remaining on the roster.

They’ll be in the mix for a top arm like Corbin Burnes in addition to trying to bring back Sean Manaea, who just turned in the best year of his career. But Shane Bieber is the type of move this team could afford to make.

He won’t be their top rotation add, but the Mets have options like David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, and Jose Butto to fill back-of-the-rotation innings early in the year. Bieber could take his time coming back but provide the immense upside a team with aspirations like this needs.

If the Mets are able to sign a high-end arm and bring back Manaea, Bieber could be the perfect last piece of the puzzle. They can afford to pay him for a few months as he works his way back.

Atlanta Braves

While the 2024 season didn’t go as planned in Atlanta, the Braves are still well-positioned to return to the upper tier of contention next season. With unanimous Cy Young winner Chris Sale leading the way and superstar Spencer Strider making his way back to the mound, the pitching staff could be excellent.

Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach round out a top four that should be among the best in the league once Strider returns. However, Max Fried and Charlie Morton are free agents, while Strider may not be ready on Opening Day. Atlanta has a couple of in-house depth options, like Bryce Elder, and two youngsters in Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver that they hope can help soon.

This team wants to win a World Series though, and they seem primed to add another arm or two to the mix. If they go the route of adding just one pitcher, they may opt for someone who can fill innings while Strider is returning to form early in the year. But imagine the upside of adding both Strider and Shane Bieber to the mix mid-season.

Atlanta could choose to add a lower-tier free agent to fill some innings early in the year and then ink Bieber to create an absolutely electric rotation for the second half of the season. He would also provide some further long-term insurance if any of their core arms get hurt. If they’re not going to resign Max Fried or another top starter, Bieber offers the upside they may be seeking.

It might be too risky for them to rely on two arms coming off Tommy John Surgery, but they have had ample success maximizing the stuff of veterans (They traded for a 35-year-old, and he just pitched to a Triple Crown in his first year with them!) and could do so with Bieber.

Detroit Tigers

Intra-division signings, especially when it comes to star names, are always fun. In this case, it’s a fun idea and one that makes a ton of sense for a team fresh off a thrilling unexpected postseason run in 2024.

Led by AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and an excellent bullpen, the Tigers’ pitching exceeded expectations last year. However, only two starters other than Skubal made at least 20 starts, and the pitcher with the fourth most starts, Jack Flaherty, is no longer with the team.

Reese Olson, who had a sneaky 3.53 ERA across 22 starts, has a rotation spot locked down, but the other three spots are far from solidified.

The time to start spending and competing is now in Detroit, as this team is expected to be in the mix for top free agents, including the likes of Alex Bregman and others. They’re set to add one or two starters to their rotation to support their ace this winter, and Bieber makes a lot of sense given his familiarity with the AL Central and the plethora of in-house short-term options in Detroit.

Players like Beau Brieske and Tyler Holton made starts last season and are fully capable of doing so while Bieber ramps up early in the year. They can then shift back into key bullpen roles as the season continues.

Bieber’s upside is worth the chance for Detroit, and they’re better prepared to weather the storm early in the season than anyone due to their elite and versatile bullpen.

His style of pitching following Skubal’s come October is so exciting to envision. It’s risky, but the Tigers at their current stage should be taking some upside swings.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Editor’s note: This piece was written before the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract. Could they still pursue Bieber this winter?

The team that is always on the hunt for high-end pitching will be in the mix for most arms, but the Dodgers make a lot of sense for this one in particular. They have so many talented players who could start for them next season, but they also have countless pitchers already set to miss the entire season (or most of it).

Given their recent injury woes, adding an arm that can represent a natural reinforcement midway into the year feels like a savvy play. Los Angeles has plenty of question marks with pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, (presumably) Clayton Kershaw, and others, which could lead to them adding depth. Who could be a better upside add than a former Cy Young?

Bieber has Southern California roots, and a return back that way could place him in the best situation of his career. There would be little pressure for him to come back quickly, but Bieber could become another part of a great rotation upon his return.