Free Agents Who Could Return Great Value on “Prove-It” Deals

With free agency officially upon us, it’s time to properly dive into the market. I started by taking a look at players who earned a raise with their performance this season and will continue to analyze free agency.

The top names like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes will obviously be at the forefront of media attention, but each year, some players with minimal buzz return excellent value. In particular, players coming off injury or a down year fit into this mold.

Veteran players on the market are sometimes forced to take short-term deals in hopes of rebuilding their value before hitting free agency again. These “prove-It” deals are frequently for one year or, in the case of formerly higher-end players, one year with a second-year player option.

These deals come with risk, as some players are not able to return to their previous form, but that’s why teams only hand out short-term agreements to this category of free agents. Great value can be found in this category of the market though, so let’s take a look at players who could be well worth taking a chance on this winter.

Walker Buehler

While he nearly pitched his way off this list in the World Series, Walker Buehler will still likely have to settle for a short-term deal this winter to rebuild his value over a full season. However, he did prove he can still be that guy, particularly in big moments.

Buehler missed half of 2022 and all of 2023 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery and struggled to find his groove this past season. A few weeks ago, he may have been looking at a one-year deal with an incentive-based player option.

After he dominated in his last two postseason starts and got the save to finish off the World Series, plenty of teams will be lining up to hand Buehler a short-term deal. His upside is still very high, and he could plausibly turn into a steal of a signing this winter.

It feels like the Dodgers will make a push for their hometown ace to return, especially after winning another ring, but they’ll have competition.

Max Kepler

His career is rather hard to gauge due to various ups and downs, but Max Kepler could be one of the best minimally-discussed names available in free agency this winter. This past season was rough, as was 2022, but Kepler posted an .816 OPS with 24 home runs just a year ago.

He also hit at least 17 home runs (and as many as 26) with steady production over his first four seasons. If Kepler can find some consistency at this stage in his career, he can viably be a quality starting outfielder or at least the strong side of a platoon.

With the outfield market headlined by the generational talent that is Juan Soto and a few mashers in Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander, the market may take time to percolate for other sluggers. Once prices are more or less set, Kepler could be in line for a decent short-term contract as he looks to rebuild his value.

Shane Bieber

It’s rare for a former Cy Young winner on the right side of 30 to be available with such a minimal commitment needed to sign him, but that appears to be the case with longtime Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He has been one of the better arms in baseball in recent years, but his stuff really showed signs of regression in 2023 prior to him undergoing Tommy John surgery this past spring.

He likely won’t be ready by the start of next season but ultimately could be one of the highest-upside arms available for teams that can afford to be patient. He’s destined to receive a contract loaded with incentives and some form of a second-year option given these circumstances.

Despite some concerns, Bieber will still be just 29 years old heading into the spring and had a 2.88 ERA while producing 4.8 fWAR across over 200 innings in 2022. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could get back to that level, which makes him an appealing target for many teams.

He seems like the perfect fit for teams on the edge of contention who may need to take a shot at some upside this winter.

John Means

This is a bit of a deeper-cut choice here, as the best year of Means’s career was his rookie season and he has thrown a total of 10 starts in the past three years. However, that means he could come at an extremely low cost and it wouldn’t take much for him to return value.

As the leader of the rebuilding Orioles staff from 2019-2021, Means made 63 starts (67 appearances) and was a steady presence throughout those years. Injuries have taken a massive toll on him in the past three seasons, but he has still looked effective when on the mound.

Upon his brief return this past season, he tossed 20.2 innings across four starts with 16 strikeouts and just six runs allowed.

Means underwent another Tommy John surgery this summer, though, which means he likely won’t pitch until the end of next season or possibly 2026. Any contract will likely have to be a backloaded two-year agreement, as his new team will have to pay him to recover this season with the hope of him providing value at the very end.

It’s certainly risky, to say the least, but there’s a chance that Means can bounce back to being a solid back-half-of-the-rotation arm and could be signed to a very affordable deal.

Luis Urías

While I’m not a fan of batting average being a utilized stat, hitting under .200 in two straight seasons makes it rather hard to enter free agency and garner interest. However, Luis Urías could be a name of interest, especially on a cheap or even non-guaranteed contract.

He has only played in 93 combined games the last two years and struggled mightily, but Urías was a 3-WAR player in both 2021 and 2022 due to strong and versatile defense and sneaky power. He had 39 home runs and 42 doubles across 269 games in that two-year span with Milwaukee.

With substantive experience at three infield positions, someone will take a chance on Urías with at least a spring training deal. The bat was never amazing, but it definitely can be better than what he displayed in Boston and Seattle.

Given what Urías could be signed for, there’s a chance he’s at least a utility piece that would return some value.

Also Worth Mentioning…

Seranthony Domínguez

Before the Orioles exercised their $8 million team option for Seranthony Domínguez, he seemed like another good candidate for a prove-it deal. And indeed, that’s essentially what the Orioles gave him by picking up his option. He didn’t look like an $8 million arm in 2024, but Baltimore must be hoping he can bounce back to his peak form.

After an exceptional rookie season at 23 years old (16 saves, 2.95 ERA), Domínguez seemed on track to be one of baseball’s next great relievers. That has not been the case, unfortunately, but he’s still just 29 years old, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he can be a high-end reliever once again.

He missed 2020 and 2021 after undergoing Tommy John but returned to have another great year in 2022. His results have since gone the wrong direction, though, as he put up a 3.78 ERA in 2023 and a 4.45 mark this year split between Philadelphia and Baltimore.

However, Domínguez has never walked more than 22 batters in a season and could provide value with his high-velocity fastball. His $8 million option could look like a great value if he gets back to being the pitcher he was a couple of years ago.