The Robbie Ray Trade Is Looking Great for the Giants Right Now

Robbie Ray is thriving. The veteran lefty is 6-0 with 62 strikeouts, a 2.67 ERA, and a 3.21 xERA through his first 10 starts. The San Francisco Giants have won nine of those outings. No NL starter has helped his team to more wins.

But let’s back up for a moment.

Ray arrived in the Bay Area during the 2023-24 offseason. After winning the AL Cy Young with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021, he signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.

Yet, the Mariners quickly seemed to sour on his contract. He was solid, though hardly ace-like, in 2022 before losing almost all of 2023 to Tommy John surgery. The following winter, Seattle flipped him and the remaining three years on his contract to San Francisco in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.

At the time, it looked like a salary dump on both sides. The deal was cash-neutral in 2024, since the Giants sent enough cash to the Mariners to cover the difference between Ray’s $23 million salary and the combined $29 million Haniger and DeSclafani were making.

However, the Mariners got the final two years and $50 million of Ray’s contract off their books, while the Giants unloaded Haniger, whom they had no role for after signing Jung Hoo Lee, and replaced DeSclafani with a younger, higher-upside starter.

This isn’t to say the Giants didn’t see something they liked in Ray or the Mariners weren’t eager to reunite with Haniger, but for both teams, it seemed like this trade was more about getting rid of players they didn’t want rather than acquiring the players they did.

The Mariners’ Side of the Trade

The Mariners got next to nothing out of their side of the trade. DeSclafani never played a game for the Mariners; they traded him that same offseason as part of the package to acquire Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins. Polanco has been terrific for the Mariners this year, but he was pretty awful in 2024. Even worse for the Mariners, they still paid two-thirds ($8 million) of DeSclafani’s 2024 salary.

Meanwhile, Haniger was one of the least productive semi-regular players in the league last year. Only one AL player (Gavin Sheets of the White Sox) appeared in more games and finished with a lower FanGraphs WAR.

To no surprise, Haniger opted into the final year and $17.5 million remaining on his contract this offseason. However, the Mariners released him in March after a poor spring.

So, at the end of the day, all the Mariners got from trading Ray was salary relief. They don’t have to pay his $25 million salary in 2024 and ’25, although Haniger’s salary cuts into those savings. Altogether, the Mariners gave up two years of Ray for $32.5 million in savings. That’s a little less than the Mets gave Frankie Montas this past winter (two years, $34 million).

With 20/20 hindsight, it’s easy to say that was a bad decision on Seattle’s part. Ray has been terrific so far in 2025, and the Mariners have been hampered by a lack of starting pitching depth. Yet, when they traded Ray, he was on the wrong side of 30 and coming off Tommy John, while the M’s had a surplus of starters.

Perhaps one could argue that getting that money off the books was the right move. After all, if the Mariners could reallocate resources from the rotation to the offense, that would surely make them a more well-rounded and competitive team. The only problem? They didn’t and still haven’t reallocated those resources.

Since signing Ray, Seattle’s biggest free agent additions include Jorge Polanco (one year, $7 million), Donovan Solano (one year, $3.5 million), and Rowdy Tellez (one year, $1.5 million).

In other words, as far as I’m concerned, the Mariners have already lost this trade. The book is closed. If all the Mariners wanted was salary relief, well, they got what they wanted. Their payroll is lower than it would have been if they hadn’t traded Ray. But if that really is all they wanted, that’s losing behavior – and that’s not a term I throw around lightly.

The Giants’ Side of the Trade

As for the Giants? It’s starting to look as if they made out like bandits. Last year was pretty much a lost season for Ray. Injuries limited him to seven mediocre starts.

Yet, those seven starts were almost certainly more valuable to the Giants than whatever they would have gotten from Haniger or DeSclafani.

More to the point, Ray is finally looking like his old self in 2025. If he can keep it up, he’ll be more than worth the extra $32.5 million the Giants took on. Indeed, considering the huge role he has played in getting San Francisco off to such a strong start, you could argue the Giants have already won this trade no matter what happens next.

The Giants are 30-21 this year. Take away Ray’s starts, and they would be 21-20. What’s more, his only start they lost was arguably his best of the season. He went seven scoreless against the Royals last Monday but walked away with a no-decision after Kansas City took the lead in the eighth.

Of course, Ray isn’t the only reason the Giants won all those games, but he has never made it difficult for his team to earn a victory. He has gone at least five innings and given up three or fewer runs in eight of his 10 outings.

His 1.26 Win Probability Added (WPA) and 1.14 Run Expectancy Wins (REW) are both first among Giants pitchers and top 10 among NL starters.

The Giants had an active offseason under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey, but without a new top-end starter to replace Blake Snell, it was hard to see them as serious contenders entering 2025.

Thus far, Ray has stepped up to be that top-end arm. The Giants have seen their playoff odds nearly double since Opening Day (per FanGraphs).

So, funnily enough, the number one reason the Giants are playing so well doesn’t have anything to do with their new front office. Instead, it’s one of the biggest trades of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure finally paying off.

Stats updated prior to games on May 23.