Could Sal Stewart Lead the League in RBIs and Still Lose the ROY?
Stewart has had an impressive season, but he has some tough competition for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
As the regular season comes to a close, we’re nearing some of the most exciting moments in baseball. October is just around the corner, with plenty of teams still fighting for a postseason spot, hopeful of capturing a World Series victory for their franchise.
Even with all the excitement of the final month of the season, there is an underlying discussion, albeit distant, that seems to ignite a fire among fans: award races. One of the most contentious this year is the National League Rookie of the Year, which seems to gain more traction with each passing day.
Come November, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) will determine what may feel like one of the closest ROY races in recent times.
We saw rampant discussion regarding Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes in 2024, as voters and the public weighed the value of a rookie leading his squad to the postseason versus an all-time pitching season.
The 2019 discussion pitted rookie home run leader Pete Alonso against Michael Soroka, who ranked fifth in the league with a 2.68 ERA throughout his rookie campaign.
In hindsight, neither of those races was ever that close, and the majority of them never end up that way. The last few NL ROY winners—however torn fans were in the months leading up to their crowning—have won in a landslide vote.
Each NL ROY winner since 2013 has accumulated more than 85% of the maximum possible vote points, with the exception of Devin Williams in the shortened 2020 season.
Now, with this class of top rookies, it seems almost impossible to imagine such a blowout victory.
On one hand, Sal Stewart is on pace to do what no rookie has since Ted Williams in 1939. He’s on pace to stand ahead of the rest and lead Major League Baseball outright in RBIs (Walt Dropo tied for the lead in 1950 during his rookie season). He’s paired that feat with a well-above-average offensive season and is playing like an emergent young star.
In a vacuum, Stewart’s accomplishment may seem monumental enough to make him the clear favorite for the award. However, 2026’s National League rookie class is among the best we’ve seen in years.
Let’s dive into Stewart’s impressive rookie campaign and who his competitors will be come award season.
Stewart’s Rookie Campaign
Sal Stewart began his 2026 campaign on the heels of a promising month-long debut last season, in which he swatted five homers through 53 plate appearances. So, expectations were sky-high for the Reds slugger coming out of the offseason—and he hasn’t disappointed one bit.
Through his 133rd game, Stewart has slashed .261/.334/.472 while recording a 116 wRC+ to match. He’s smacked 28 homers as well, which is tied for the 15th most in the majors.
Stewart has paired his offensive prowess with defensive versatility, spending significant time at both first and third base this season and making a few appearances at second base. He’s played slightly below-average defense across the three positions, recording -2 FRV across 1,174.1 defensive innings.
As a result, the 22-year-old has racked up 2.3 fWAR, ranking 74th in the league and third among National League rookie position players.
He hasn’t slowed down either, becoming the first player this season to reach 100 RBIs on Wednesday night. With his sacrifice fly in the sixth inning, Stewart tied the Reds’ single-season rookie RBI record, matching Jim Greengrass’ mark from 1953.
It’s hard to take a look at Stewart’s season and imagine he doesn’t come away with a Rookie of the Year win, but both of the following players have a legitimate, and potentially stronger case for the accolade.
Nolan McLean
Just like Stewart, Nolan McLean entered 2026 fresh off a promising showing down the stretch last year. He retained his rookie eligibility in the same manner, while emerging as one of the top pitchers in the National League.
For starters, McLean is on pace to eclipse the 180-inning mark by season’s end, having already accumulated 148.2 innings this year. For context, Parker Messick is the only rookie pitcher who ranks ahead of McLean in innings pitched.
The 25-year-old right-hander has paired his workload with a 3.21 ERA–which ranks 15th among all qualified starting pitchers–and is setting hitters down on strikes 27.2% of the time. He’s already notched 168 strikeouts and is on pace to narrowly surpass the 200-strikeout mark. If he does reach 200, McLean would become the fifth rookie pitcher to do so in the 21st century.
McLean’s case hinges on the fact that he’s been one of the league’s most valuable pitchers, and has done so as a rookie. He ranks 24th among all starting pitchers with 2.7 fWAR, and his workhorse performance has made it hard to ignore the compelling argument that exists for McLean to be the NL ROY.
JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt has quickly made a name for himself as one of MLB’s best second basemen in his debut season. The 23-year-old entered 2026 as Just Baseball’s seventh-ranked prospect, and it’s safe to say his performance has easily lived up to high expectations thus far.
To this point in the season, Wetherholt has recorded +21 OAA, which ranks third among all qualified defenders. FanGraphs estimates that, as a result of his elite range at the position, Wetherholt has been worth +17.1 defensive runs above average.
The left-handed hitter has paired his 100th percentile defense with an above-average season at the plate, posting a 107 wRC+ and a .245/.348/.376 slash line. He’s also blasted 17 homers and swiped 14 bags, which puts him on pace to finish with a 15-15 season.
Wetherholt has accumulated 4.5 fWAR thanks to his above-average play across every aspect of the game, ranking seventh among all qualified position players. With a solid final month, he could easily match Corbin Carroll’s 5.4 mark from 2023, which is among the highest for NL ROY recipients since Albert Pujols in 2001 (7.2 fWAR).
Predicted Finish
Based on each of their cases, it’s reasonably fair to expect that Wetherholt may be the player to come away with ROY honors in November.
This year, the league-average second baseman is producing a 95 wRC+, with Wetherholt’s 107 mark easily surpassing it. On the other hand, the average first baseman has recorded a 114 wRC+ in 2026, which isn’t too far below Stewart’s level of production. Combined with the fact that Wetherholt has been substantially better defensively, total overall value edges in favor of the Cardinals’ standout rookie.
Now, that’s not to dismiss Stewart at all; his production at the plate has been remarkable this season, especially for a rookie. But it’s nearly impossible to dismiss just how good Wetherholt has been.
If McLean reaches 180 innings pitched and 200 strikeouts with a sub-3.15 ERA, things might get more competitive. Right now, though, Wetherholt may have the strongest overall argument for first place.
That being said, Stewart will almost surely finish in the top three. His first full year in the big leagues has been nothing short of amazing, and he’s on pace to accomplish what no other rookie has since 1939.
While Stewart may lead the league in RBIs, it’s entirely possible he loses the ROY.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by
Mason Linken first began writing about baseball after founding FBC Reports, and contributing to SABR's book "Henry Aaron". At Just Baseball, Mason is responsible for covering…