What Will it Take for the Red Sox to Trade Jarren Duran?

The Boston Red Sox have a first-class problem. They have too many young, talented position players under team control than they have spots to play them on the diamond. Particularly when it comes to their outfield, as the emergence of Ceddanne Rafaela and the debut of top prospect Roman Anthony has suddenly made the outfield at Fenway Park crowded.

Last year, Jarren Duran looked like the next true building block for the Red Sox, as he put together a fantastic All-Star campaign in which he received down-ballot MVP votes. In a career-year, Duran hit 21 home runs, stole 34 bags, posted a 130 wRC+, and was nearly worth seven wins above replacement (6.8 fWAR).

This year, Duran has struggled to meet that same production, but that has not kept his name out of trade rumors, as many have speculated that the 28-year-old could get dealt at the this year’s deadline.

These rumors have generally stemmed from reports that Padres GM AJ Preller has been pursuing Duran for months now, which may lead to some other contenders asking about the athletic outfielder at the deadline.

With the Red Sox still very much in the playoff race, they are surely not going to take on the appearance of a seller, but selling high on Duran in a market that is desperate for impact players could reallocate resources from a position of strength to make the Red Sox better now and into the future.

Why the Red Sox Should Listen on Jarren Duran

The Boston Red Sox outfield of the future likely centers around Anthony, but Ceddanne Rafaela is locked into an eight-year contract that will keep him roaming center field at Fenway for a long time as well.

Wilyer Abreu has established himself as a well-rounded right fielder who has outperformed Duran this season, blasting 20 home runs with a 121 wRC+, compared to Duran at 105. Abreu has also been the better defender this season, as he has thrived playing out in the spacious right field at Fenway Park, where his cannon of an arm (97th percentile in arm strength) has shone.

If Rafaela is the center fielder of the future, and Anthony is one day slated to become the face of the franchise, the Red Sox eventually have to make a decision on Duran or Abreu, and it feels like the latter is a better fit to remain with this core long-term.

Abreu will hit free agency a year after Duran, and he also won’t hit arbitration until 2027. Still pre-arb in 2026, Abreu is one of the biggest bargains in the game right now. Duran is only making $3.85 million this season, but as a super-two eligible player, he is already in arb 1, with three more arbitration years ahead of him.

While Duran might not be slated for the biggest of raises next season if he ends up having a down-year, he is still a former All-Star in the arbitration system, meaning he will cost the Red Sox a lot more over the next three years than Abreu will.

Being a former All-Star is also something that helps his trade value, though, with contenders looking to make a splash that not only jolts their roster this year, but one that can ignite their fan base. Getting a player of Duran’s skill set will surely accomplish that for a contending team.

Why Teams Would Trade a LOT for Duran

Duran is exactly the type of spark plug that teams love to get their hands on for a playoff push. The 28-year-old has been playing in front of the Green Monster this season, but last year he was worth 17 DRS and 6 OAA in just 810.1 innings out in center field.

A burner on the basepaths, Duran leads the American League in triples since the start of the 2024 season, trailing only Corbin Carroll in MLB (27 to 24). Last year he stole 34 bases, and this year he is already sitting at 16.

When it comes to WAR, Duran’s numbers have taken a big hit in comparison to his near 7-win season in 2024. With that said, if Duran were playing in center field every day, he would be more valuable, and there are contenders who could use a real upgrade in center field at the deadline.

The Padres were already reported to have interest (although with Jackson Merrill, they would look to plug Duran in left), but the Mets and Phillies should be interested in acquiring his services as well.

All three teams are looking to contend with the Dodgers and the Cubs in what is shaping up to be a very tough NL playoff field. A player of Duran’s caliber is not often put on the table, especially when he still has three years of control after this season.

The Red Sox would be wise to listen to all offers on Duran and try to drum up a bidding war, as this is the type of player who can swing a playoff race, and Boston can take advantage.

In a market that is devoid of impact players, Duran could be the best player moved at this deadline. When you consider the team control and the premium position he can play in center field, the Red Sox can ask for multiple top 100 prospects in any deal that includes Duran.

Mock Trades That the Red Sox Would Have to Entertain

The Red Sox are still trying to win this season, and Jarren Duran can play a big role in that. To move him, the Red Sox would have to get something back that helps them right now (ie. pitching), or get future pieces that are so enticing that it is worth taking a slight step back now to improve drastically for years to come.

Looking at their current roster, it would make sense to think that a top pitching prospect may move the needle more than anything else, as they already have a crowded roster of young players. With that said, the infield is more open than the outfield long-term, so getting a top prospect that can play in the dirt may be enticing as well.

The Padres, Mets, and Phillies all make sense as landing spots for Duran, so let’s dive into a few mock trades that would make sense for the Red Sox to pull the trigger on making a deal.

Padres Trade: C Ethan Salas (Double-A), LHP Kash Mayfield (Low-A), RHP Humberto Cruz (Low-A)

Throughout this entire deadline cycle, the San Diego Padres have been linked heavily to Jarren Duran, as the team has been desperately searching for another outfield sparkplug. Their outfield currently consists of Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr., a nice trio but one that could warrant an upgrade.

Merrill and Tatis are both some of the game’s top talents, and they won’t be shifting from their positions if they acquire Duran. However, the team could shift Gavin Sheets to the DH role, allowing Duran’s speed to take on left field while also allowing Luis Arraez to change out of the DH spot.

While most of these players are below-average fielders, no matter where they’d fit in, the key would be removing Jose Iglesias’ bat from the everyday lineup. He’s currently posted a 71 wRC+, and if this move were made, they could remove this below-average production from their lineup while also adding a serious sparkplug in Duran.

When it comes to the package the Padres could offer in exchange for Duran, it would be heavily focused on arms while also including Ethan Salas, once one of the game’s more interesting prospects. The Red Sox have been seeking a replacement for Kyle Teel ever since dealing him while also looking to expand their pitching depth, and this is the perfect opportunity to do so.

Salas was once in the headlines due to the fact that he began his career at 17 years old, as he raked during his first taste of professional baseball. Now 19 years old, Salas has been plagued with injuries and below-average play, which has caused his reputation to slip slightly.

For both sides, this could be a real win-win scenario to include Salas.

For the Red Sox, there’s the potential to acquire a franchise catcher with the upside to be one of the top prospects in baseball. However, this is also the perfect opportunity for the Padres to maximize the value of a struggling, injury-ridden prospect.

The same could be seen in their arms, as Kash Mayfield, Humberto Cruz, and Braden Nett all come with tremendous upside. The Red Sox have been looking to upgrade their pitching depth, and this is the perfect opportunity to do so.

Mayfield is pitching very well through his first 34 professional innings, as last year’s first-round pick has posted a 3.18 ERA alongside 51 strikeouts to this point. He’d immediately be one of the Red Sox’s top future arms. The 20-year-old has upside to be a top 100 talent, and would be the real prize of this deal for Boston.

How much they like Mayfield could determine the rest of the package, as Salas and Mayfield are a very good starting point for a deal. We originally had RHP Braden Nett in the deal too, giving the Red Sox two arms to really pin their hopes on in this trade.

Nett has pitched to a 3.53 ERA across 71.1 innings this season, while also striking out 82 batters. He is also closer to the big leagues, which would be attractive to the Red Sox. Instead of Nett, we want with more of a project arm in Humberto Cruz, giving the Padres the chance to hold onto Nett for another move at the deadline if needed.

Cruz would be more of a case where the Red Sox are dreaming of potential over the current results. While he’s struggled in his first taste of Low-A action, Cruz was once one of the top international prospects in the 2024 signing class, showcasing electric stuff in the process.

For both sides, this deal could be a win-win. The Padres get to add their sparkplug outfielder, while the Red Sox get to buy-low on a 19-year-old catcher with a ton of upside, and add a few more electric arms to their farm system.

If AJ Preller really believes Duran is the missing piece from winning the World Series in 2025, the Padres could bite the bullet and trade all three arms along with Salas if it means landing Duran. If the next two teams seriously enter the bidding for Duran, it may require all four to get it done, because the Mets and Phillies are trading from deeper farm systems.

Mets Trade: INF Ronny Mauricio (MLB), SP Nolan McLean (Triple-A), OF Nick Morabito (Double-A)

The New York Mets are currently playing 33-year-old utilityman Jeff McNeil in center field, a position he has not played on a consistent basis since his college days. McNeil has handled the transition to playing center field remarkably well, but second base is still his best position, and he is still the Mets best option at the keystone as well.

If the Mets were to acquire Duran, they could shift McNeil back into the infield and have a much deeper lineup that would be a real threat come October. An outfield of Juan Soto, Jarren Duran, and Brandon Nimmo right-to-left would be one of the best in all of baseball for years to come.

When it comes to the package they could offer in return, the Mets have a trio of top 100 pitching prospects who would move the needle in any trade if put on the table. Nolan McLean (No. 37), Jonah Tong (No. 69), and Brandon Sproat (No. 99).

For this trade, we went with McLean, who has pitched to a 2.58 ERA across 90 2/3 innings pitched this year, with a majority of those innings coming in Triple-A. Including McLean would allow the Mets to hold onto some of their other top 100 prospects, like a Jett Williams or a Carson Benge, as their system is not nearly as deep when it comes to impact position players.

Instead, the secondary piece in this deal would be Ronny Mauricio, a former top prospect who can play all over the infield. The 24-year-old has posted a .792 OPS with four home runs across his first 75 at-bats against right-handed pitching this year. Against lefties, the switch-hitter has struggled, but he is still making adjustments to facing big league pitching.

Mauricio could slide into the infield mix with the Red Sox right away, helping them try to contend this year, with four years of team control beyond this season. Once thought to be a five-tool shortstop, Mauricio still hits the ball hard, has improved as a base stealer, and has the floor of a solid big league utility man.

The final piece in the deal is Nick Morabito, a speedster who was the Mets’ minor league player of the year in 2024. The center fielder is currently in Double-A, where he has 33 stolen bases and has posted a .780 OPS across his first 80 games played in 2025.

McLean is the piece that would get this deal done for the Mets, but Mauricio is an exciting enough plug-and-play project that could allow the Red Sox to cater to multiple timelines, adding another attractive layer to the Mets package.

Phillies Trade: RHP Mick Abel (Triple-A), SS Aidan Miller (Double-A), OF Justin Crawford (Triple-A)

Similar to the San Diego Padres, it’s been no secret that the Philadelphia Phillies have been seeking some significant help in their outfield. With their prospect core being arguably one of the strongest offerings of these three teams, the Phillies are in a good position to have a shot at adding Jarren Duran.

While they’ve played very good baseball to this point, the Phillies’ outfield has left much to be desired this season. For starters, Brandon Marsh has been disappointing offensively, posting below-league-average metrics alongside just three homers in nearly 80 games.

The Phillies have also struggled to get Max Kepler going offensively, which only adds to the outfield challenges plaguing this team moving forward. What better way to address this than with Jaren Duran?

The package the Phillies would forfeit would also be a hefty one, as they’d have to part with Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, and Mick Abel. Aside from Andrew Painter, these are nearly all of the club’s most exciting prospects, making this an expensive price tag.

Abel has bounced between Triple-A and the Major League club, where he’s shown promise in both places. Abel had one of the more electric pitching debuts this season, as he outdueled Paul Skenes for the win. Also, he’s registered an ERA just above 1.80 this season at Triple-A.

Abel could immediately earn his promotion back to the big leagues, where he could get a more extended look than he’s gotten with the Phillies. If not, he’ll go to Triple-A for a little longer, looking to earn this promotion once more.

Aidan Miller would be the main piece forefitted in this deal, as he’s been the one prospect outside of Painter the Phillies have held the closest. Miller is still struggling to find his footing at Double-A, though, as he’s posted a 107 wRC+ in 72 games. Despite this, there’s tremendous upside to be had in his game, as his raw tools are off the charts.

Justin Crawford is another interesting piece in this deal. The former first-round pick comes with an elite contact/speed combination, which has led him to slash .325/.406/.424 with 29 stolen bases in 76 Triple-A games this season. While his power is nearly non-existent, this type of player could be an electric addition to the Red Sox’s system.

On the Phillies’ side, they don’t just gain a very solid outfielder: they also gain a true sparkplug that would blend incredibly well with the Philly environment. The culture in both the clubhouse and city screams Duran’s name, as they’d go to war for Duran the same way he would for them once embraced.

While it is a lot to give up, this trade keeps Andrew Painter and adds a player with three years of control to a roster that has some expiring pieces. It would allow the Phillies to jumpstart rebuilding a new core around Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, while bolstering their current group for another run.

That is why in an upcoming bold trade deadline predictions piece, we will have Duran to the Phillies as one of the trades we spotlight.