The Red Sox Were Justified in Gambling on Adley Rutschman

For years, Boston Red Sox fans have pleaded for Craig Breslow to act more like Dave Dombrowski. To throw caution to the wind and refuse to get denied in his Plan A. To get the player he believed in regardless of what the models said.

On Monday, they got their wish.

​In perhaps the biggest Red Sox trade deadline deal since they landed Victor Martinez in 2009, the club acquired three-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman for a four-player package that included their top two pitching prospects, Anthony Eyanson and Kyson Witherspoon, promising 19-year-old outfielder Enddy Azocar, and major league catcher Carlos Narváez.

​Even when considering the lack of production the Red Sox have gotten from their catchers, this was a shocking amount of value to send for a player with just a year left of control, a sentiment that rival executives were quick to acknowledge.

Of course, a deal like this would have been even more unfathomable a month ago. Back then, it was presumed that if the Red Sox were to make a blockbuster trade at the deadline, it would involve trading the likes of Aroldis Chapman and Sonny Gray. The Red Sox sat at the bottom of the American League with a 32-46 record, and, barring a miracle, looked headed for a massive sell-off.

​Yet here we are a couple of days after the trade deadline, and not only are Chapman and Gray still on the Red Sox, but they have a brand-new All-Star catcher to throw to, the result of a 28-5 rampage from that June 24 date to the August 3 trade deadline.

​While there are plenty of highlights from this stretch to choose from, including four-game sweeps over the division rival Yankees and Rays, it was the Red Sox’s three-game sweep over the two-time defending champion Dodgers in their own building that truly signified that they could go toe-to-toe with the majors’ best teams.

​Perhaps no team in baseball had ever earned substantial reinforcements more than the 2026 Red Sox, but the pathway to making a significant addition was limited.  The only true superstar on the market was impending free agent Tarik Skubal, which was a non-starter for the Red Sox given that they already had four left-handed starters in their rotation.

​Given that the Red Sox’s main roster holes existed at shortstop and catcher, there seemed to be only two avenues for the club to make a needle-moving addition to their roster:

1. Trade Franklin Arias and more for a controllable shortstop like CJ Abrams, Otto Lopez or Zach Neto
2. Package 3 of their top 5 prospects for Adley Rutschman

The Red Sox went with option two, indicating that they viewed Arias on a different tier than any of their other prospects. The 20-year-old has always had a strong hit tool and profiled as a plus defender, but his remarkable power surge (22 home runs after hitting eight in 2025) has significantly raised his ceiling.

​The reluctance to include Arias in a deal for a proven long-term solution at shortstop confirms his status as the shortstop of the future and perhaps the present. Arias has hit well over his first 10 games in Worcester, and Breslow didn’t rule out a call-up in his media availability after the trade deadline.​

Although the three minor leaguers the Red Sox sent to the Orioles were among the best in their system, none could match Arias’ upside or potential to impact the 2026 club.

​Eyanson, who is Just Baseball’s 69th-ranked prospect, has had a remarkable Double-A season, posting a 1.32 ERA in 16 appearances between High-A and Double-A.

His feel for spin and plus control has proven to overwhelm minor-league hitters, but the fact that his fastball is sitting in the low-90s and not touching triple digits like it did in spring training has him looking more like a high-floor mid-rotation starter than a potential ace.

​Fellow right-hander Kyson Witherspoon was taken two rounds earlier than Eyanson but has had a far more difficult time in his first minor league campaign. The former 15th overall pick posted a 4.78 ERA in 17 starts for High-A Greenville, walking over 10% of the batters he faced and giving up over a home run per nine innings.

​As a result, he has fallen off most top 100 prospects lists and no longer possesses the same amount of value as his draft pedigree and name value would suggest.

​The final and perhaps most exciting prospect in this deal is Azocar, a 19-year-old outfielder who slashed .352/.387/.796 with 10 home runs in his previous 19 games before the trade.

As intriguing as Azocar is, however, he is far from a sure thing. Questions about his hit tool, which was given a 45 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale by MLB Pipeline, and ability to hit off-speed pitches won’t truly be tested until he reaches the upper minors.

​And even if he was able to answer all those questions, he is still at least two or three years away from contributing, making him expendable for a Red Sox team suddenly hellbent on winning in 2026.

​Additionally, the Red Sox could afford to give up these prospects because of the amount of team control they had for their existing core:

Position Players

• ​C: Carlos Narváez (Team Control through 2031), Connor Wong (Team Control through 2028)
• 1B: Willson Contreras (Team Control through 2027 with $18.5 million team option for 2028)
• 2B: Curtis Mead (Team Control through 2030)
• SS: Trevor Story (6-year, $140 million contract through 2027, team option through 2028)
• 3B: Caleb Durbin (Team Control through 2031)
• LF: Roman Anthony (9-year, $130.46 million contract through 2033 with a $30 million team option for 2034)
• CF: Ceddanne Rafaela (8-year, $50 million contract through 2031 with a $16 million club option for 2032)
• RF: Wilyer Abreu (Team Control through 2029)
• DH: Jarren Duran (Team Control through 2028)

Pitchers

• SP Garrett Crochet (6-year, $170 million contract through 2031)
• SP Ranger Suárez  (5-year, $140 million contract through 2030)
• SP Payton Tolle (Team Control through 2031)
• SP Jake Bennett (Team Control through 2031)
• SP Brayan Bello (6-year, $55 million contract through 2029 with a $21 million team option for 2030)

​With the exception of Story, who will presumably be replaced by Arias, the Red Sox have a long-term solution at every spot on the diamond and in the rotation. Yet while Narváez and Wong were both under contract through 2028, neither profiled as anything close to a cornerstone player.

​Wong has rebounded well enough from a dismal 2025 campaign with a .252/.341/.377 slash line, but produces neither enough offensive nor defensive value to be anything more than an acceptable backup

​Narváez, on the other hand, looked like he could be something far greater over the first half of 2025, playing Gold Glove-caliber defense and hitting .273/.347/.439 in the first half before a knee injury caused him to fade down the stretch.

​Yet while the defense has remained elite in his sophomore campaign, Narváez’s offense completely cratered. Narváez slashed just .187/.257/.275 with three home runs before the trade, due in large part to a strikeout rate that ballooned from 24.9% to 33.5%.

​So yes, it was obvious that the Red Sox could use an upgrade at catcher. The issue is that there just weren’t many good options available.

The Rockies were reportedly asking for Arias in a trade for All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman. Athletics All-Star Shea Langeliers was taken off the market by a season-ending injury. The other rumored targets (Tyler Stephenson, Francisco Alvarez, Liam Hicks, and Iván Herrera) weren’t good enough offensively to offset their below-average defense.

​Rather than hope that Narváez would revert to his 2025 self or disrupt their pitching staff by giving them a below-average defensive catcher, the Red Sox spent up for a player who, despite a lengthy injury history, has proven to be one of the most well-rounded catchers in the league.

​Though he may never become the superstar the Orioles anticipated when they selected him with the first overall pick in the 2019 draft, Rutschman’s career has hardly been a failure. He averaged over 3 WAR in his five seasons in Baltimore, headlined by 2022 and 2023 seasons in which he received down-ballot MVP votes.

​Rutschman looked on his way to repeating the feat in 2024 before suffering a hand injury that played a part in his .207/.282/.303 line in the second half. Injuries have become an undeniable part of Rutschman’s story, as he has played just 157 games over the last two seasons and is currently on the injury list with wrist inflammation.

​Yet while Rutschman’s 2025 season was a complete disaster at the plate, 2026 was tracking to be his best offensive season since 2023, as he added 30 points to both his batting average and on-base percentage and turned in a very respectable 115 OPS+.

​The underlying metrics, meanwhile, not only supported the bounce-back but indicated that his numbers could be even better. His expected batting average of .274 is 23 points higher than his actual output of. 251, while his .348 xWOBA is 15 points higher than his wOBA.

​Rutschman’s defensive performance has had a similar turnaround, particularly in regard to controlling the running game. He has thrown out a career-high 37% of baserunners, a 13% increase from 2025, and he leads MLB with +4 Statcast throwing runs.

​Even if Rutschman is only an average offensive performer, that will still represent a major improvement over Narváez, and his well-rounded defensive game, which also includes 93rd percentile framing and 75th percentile blocks above average, is a significant step up from Wong.

​While that profile may not sound like someone who is worth three of the top five prospects in the organization, it will all be worth it if he proves to be the missing piece. If Rutschman plays at his usual All-Star level and leads the Red Sox to a deep run in October, nobody will care about what the prospects they dealt to Baltimore become.

​After all, the purpose of a baseball organization is not to be atop the farm system rankings. It’s to win a World Series, and when you have a chance to go for it, you have to push the chips into the middle of the table.

​The Red Sox have proven that they have a roster capable of making a deep run in October. The one thing they lacked was a catcher who could provide above-average production at the plate without being a liability behind it.

Adley Rutschman was the only player on the market who fit that criteria, and Breslow was justified in doing whatever it took to land him.