The Orioles Need Adley Rutschman To Get Back on Track

Back in the 2019 MLB draft, the Baltimore Orioles made a pivotal decision, selecting catcher Adley Rutschman first overall. This choice wasn’t just a draft pick, it was the beginning of a new era in Baltimore, as they had their future franchise cornerstone in their hands.

Now six years later, Rutschman is still at the forefront of the Orioles’ franchise and a key part of their offense. He’s seen plenty of success throughout his big league career, but the 2024 season was his first bump in the road.

Rutschman saw himself go from arguably baseball’s best catcher to just slightly above league average offensively. What happened? How did it happen so fast?

Reviewing Rutschman’s Performance in 2024

Although last season was a step backward offensively, Rutschman still had productive moments.

In 148 games, Rutschman performed to a level on par with a league-average hitter. In this span, Rutschman hit 19 homers, posted a 9.1% walk rate and 16.1% strikeout rate, and slashed .250/.318/.391 with a .309 wOBA, 104 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR.

While these numbers certainly aren’t bad by any means, they’re nowhere near the level Rutschman at which performed a year prior. When you take a look at his 104 wRC+, you see a very glaring decrease of 23 points from 2023.

To put in perspective how big of a decrease this was, if Rutschman had posted his 127 wRC+ in 2024, it would have tied him with Jose Altuve for the 28th-best in baseball. Instead, his actual wRC+ of 104 tied him with a few other players for 90th in baseball.

For a player of Rutschman’s caliber, this drop-off in offensive production is not something to ignore.

Now that we’ve established Rutschman’s fall-off, we have to answer the question: Why did this happen?

Plate Discipline Regression

One main cause for Rutschman’s step back offensively was his plate discipline. When looking at the data, this change in plate discipline is one of the first things that stands out.

For starters, Rutschman’s strikeout rate and walk rate both saw a noticeable change. His strikeout rate of 16.1% was almost 2% higher than his strikeout rate in 2023, which is concerning. It is important to note that his strikeout rate is still very good, as his 16.1% strikeout rate was in the 83rd percentile in 2024.

But, when comparing this to 2023, this is once again an obvious change, making it more significant. His 14.7% strikeout rate sat inside baseball’s 90th percentile, very different from where he placed in 2024.

Rutschman’s walk rate also saw a noticeable decrease, an even bigger change than his strikeout rate. His change in walk rate was just over 4%, which is a sizable difference. It’s even more noticeable in his percentile rankings, as his 13.4% walk rate sat in the 91st percentile in 2023, as opposed to his 9.1% walk rate ranking in the 62nd percentile in 2024.

While the changes to his walk and strikeout rates are signs of his plate discipline regressing, it’s also evident in his whiff rates and chase rates.

Rutschman saw the biggest difference in any of his plate-discipline-related changes in his chase rate, which worsened by 5.5%. For any player, this would be concerning, but especially knowing that Rutschman’s become far less disciplined, seeing him expand the zone is a bad sign.

While his whiff rate also slightly worsened, it wasn’t a huge difference from his whiff rate in 2023.

The fact that Rutschman’s strikeout rate, walk rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all worsened is one key reason for his regression last season. He went from being one of the most disciplined hitters in the league to suddenly facing significant regression in around a year.

While these regressions are concerning, to say the least, plate discipline wasn’t the only reason for Rutschman’s struggles in 2024.

Struggles Against the Fastball

Rutschman saw regression against all types of pitches in 2024, but the most notable change in production came against fastballs.

For the last two seasons now, Rutschman has seen more fastballs than any other pitch, and up until 2024, this was the pitch that Rutschman routinely crushed.

In 2023, 54% of the pitches he saw were fastballs, and he hammered them. He hit 15 of his 20 homers against the pitch type, while also posting a .298 xBA, .529 xSLG, and .402 xwOBA. He whiffed just 11.8% of the time against heaters.

Rutschman also posted an impressive average exit velocity of 90.8 MPH against fastballs, while registering a +16 Run Value against four-seamers alone. This made him one of the best fastball hitters in the game and made opposing pitchers fearful to throw them at him.

Fast forward to 2024, and the story was completely different.

Rutschman still saw a similar amount of fastballs, seeing them 53.5% of the time. But, his numbers dropped across the board. His xBA dropped to .272, his xSLG dropped to .444, his xwOBA fell over 50 points to .351, and his whiff rate increased as well.

Not only this, but Rutschman’s average exit velocity also took a hit, dipping below the 90 MPH mark.

For Adley Rutschman, the ability to hit fastballs well was always his calling card, and something he could do well consistently. Suddenly, in 2024, this completely changed.

Given that more than half of the pitches he sees are fastballs, it’s very easy to see how struggles against heaters played a significant part in his offensive decline.

Trouble with Right-Handed Pitching

Another key part of Rutschman’s game is his ability to switch-hit and not let opposing teams get the upper hand by playing the matchups.

Up until this season, Rutschman had handled both lefties and righties very well. But, in 2024, this wasn’t the case for the first time in his career.

In 2023, Rutschman hit lefties better, but he maintained good numbers against both sides. He posted a 153 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 117 wRC+ against righties. He also posted a wOBA above .335 against both sides.

However, these splits changed drastically in 2024.

Rutschman still hit lefties far better than righties, posting an impressive 159 wRC+ and a .388 wOBA against them. But, against righties, his wRC+ dipped from 117 to 82 with a wOBA of .277.

This drop-off is one of the most obvious signs of his struggles in 2024, with his struggles against right-handed pitching likely being a huge reason for his overall struggles at the plate.

While it wasn’t a huge amount, his strikeout rate also increased against righties last year, and his walk rate took a step back. If this trend continues, it may be realistic to suggest that Rutschman should try and stop switch-hitting at some point.

But, I wouldn’t be so eager to make this suggestion given the success he showed against both sides in 2023. Though, if his struggles continue, this is a real possibility he could explore in order to improve.

Launch Angle Increase and Quality of Contact Concerns

The final area I’d like to address in Rutschman’s offensive decline is the steep increase in launch angle he had, and how that affected his batted ball metrics.

In his first two big-league seasons, Adley Rutschman had average launch angles of 15.6 degrees and 12.6 degrees. This likely helped him drive the ball in the gap more often, and occasionally tap into power. However, in 2024, Rutschman saw a significant spike in his launch angle.

Instead of his average launch angle staying around his career norms, it saw a sudden spike, going from 12.6 degrees in 2023 to 18.8 degrees almost overnight. For most hitters, a spike in launch angle is actually a good thing, as it usually means the player will be tapping into even more power than before.

For example, this 18.8-degree average launch angle Rutschman posted was very close to Aaron Judge’s 19-degree launch angle, a mark he registered while hitting 58 home runs in 2024. But, for Rutschman, the lack of power makes me wonder if this change actually had the same type of positive impact.

When looking at his batted ball data, you see that this just wasn’t the case. When looking into his batted ball directions, you see that this launch angle change led to an increase in fly ball rate and a significant increase in pop-up rate.

While I was looking at the data, this was the first indication that something wasn’t right. As I mentioned, launch angle increases can be a good thing. But, with Rutschman‘s almost 3% increase in pop-up rate, and 6% increase in fly ball rate, I think this negatively impacted his game in a big way.

The increase in pop-ups and fly balls indicates he was getting under the ball more than you’d expect. This would also explain the lack of power he still showed, despite the sudden jump in launch angle.

If this is the case, this could also explain why Rutschman has posted significantly below league-average barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and exit velocities.

If Rutschman wants to return to greatness, addressing this launch angle increase, and the sudden batted ball changes that came with it, will be key.

Can Adley Rutschman Bounce Back for the Orioles?

Given Rutschman’s past ability to be one of the better hitters in baseball, I do think it’s likely he’ll bounce back in 2025.

However, he has a lot to address if he wants to ensure his return to the top of the catcher position. He needs to improve his plate discipline, hit fastballs like he did in 2023, improve against right-handed pitching, and make adjustments to his launch angle to ensure he maximizes his power potential.

If Rutschman can address all of the areas I mentioned, I believe he’ll be back on his way to becoming one of the best catchers in baseball, while helping the Orioles finally win their first World Series title since 1983.