Knockout or Strikeout? Rafael Devers Trade, Eight Weeks Later

Trades happen because two parties disagree on the value of two or more goods. Ultimately, each concludes that they will be better off with the opposite party’s good(s) instead of their own. Ahead of the Rafael Devers trade, this principle could not have been more true. Today is a different story.

On June 15, 2025, also known as Father’s Day, the baseball world flipped upside down.

Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey — father to a daughter and twins boys (Breslow) and two sets of twins (Posey) — celebrated the holiday in a somewhat unconventional manner: They swapped the last member of the 2018 Red Sox World Series team and face of the franchise Rafael Devers to the Giants for right-handed reliever Jordan Hicks, left-handed starter Kyle Harrison, right-handed relief prospect Jose Bello, and outfield prospect James Tibbs III.

The trade was announced shortly after Devers homered to aid the Red Sox in conducting a celebrated sweep of their rival New York Yankees. This made the deal’s timing a surprise for many Boston fans, as it seemed that Breslow had sold off a Red Sox hero for some far lesser-known West Coasters. 

Why the Red Sox and Giants Needed the Blockbuster

Boston: Drama City

All mountains look pretty from an airplane. Up close, they may be rocky, icy, or filled with unknown hazards. To Red Sox fans, 2025 Devers was merely a stud slashing .272/.401/.504 with a .905 OPS, about 50% above league average.

Inside the clubhouse, the situation was not as glamorous. After the Red Sox acquired Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, All-Star, and World Series champion Alex Bregman, Devers was unhappy about moving positions from third base to DH, despite only ranking in Baseball Savant’s 17th percentile for Fielding Run Value in 2024 and not being a Gold Glover.

Then, when the topic of Devers switching from DH to first base came up after a left patellar tendon injury ended first baseman Triston Casas’ season, Devers made it clear he would not entertain the idea.

Even with his success at the plate, the Red Sox were only 37-36 (.507) before the Devers trade.

Without the slugger in their clubhouse, they have improved to a 27-16 (.628) record since. After all the drama booked a one-way ticket to San Francisco, success made its way into Boston’s clubhouse.

San Francisco: A Great Bullpen With No Backing

The Giants began the season in the way many thought the Red Sox would after their offseason acquisitions of All-Star Garrett Crochet and Bregman, as well as World Series champion Walker Buehler — that is to say, with a bang.

While the Red Sox were having just another mediocre .500 season, the Giants totaled a .613 winning percentage throughout March and April. The run prevention gods did not ignore Oracle Park. 

He has since been traded to the Yankees, but closer Camilo Doval kickstarted the Giants’ beginning-of-year success when he posted a 1.69 ERA through June 15. Other high-achieving, low-ERA arms included Randy Rodríguez (1.54), Tyler Rogers (1.73), and Erik Miller (1.50), who served as essential bullpen support. 

After recording a 19-12 record between March and April, the Giants looked different in May and June, as they started to slip in the standings. All-Star third baseman Matt Chapman hitting the IL on June 11 with right hand inflammation was the straw that broke the camel’s back. 

The team needed to address a major problem if they wanted to compete in the NL West, one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball: their offense. 

Devers’ superhuman baseball skills were better off in a city where he could have a fresh start and feel more respected.

How the Smartest Man in Baseball Outsmarted the City of Boston

Breslow graduated with honors from Yale University and declined an NYU medical school offer to play Major League Baseball. Still, passing organic chemistry doesn’t win you a World Series — so far.

It is possible that Red Sox Nation was overly occupied with losing the city’s icon to notice that  Breslow, whose approval rating was on thin ice after making a trade of that caliber, was one step ahead of the fan base. 

This is because one piece acquired in exchange for Devers, Tibbs, served the Red Sox well at the trade deadline, when the outfield prospect was used in a trade for Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May. 

From a roster-building perspective, it was going to be a while before the Red Sox needed Tibbs’ outfield services, as they currently have five viable outfield options between Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony. The latter two are under 25 years old and under contract for several years to come.

There are, undoubtedly, more talented arms out there than May. Yet, while Breslow was rumored to have pursued Twins righty starter Joe Ryan (2.83 ERA/0.927 WHIP) but could not shake a deal, it might have been a blessing in disguise.

Firstly, there were no controllable starting pitchers moved at the deadline. So, Breslow was not an outlier in his failure to acquire Ryan.

Secondly, Breslow did not have to give up a huge haul for May. He may not be Ryan (4.85 ERA over 19 games before the trade), but nobody expects him to be. He’s not a Cy Young contender, but the Red Sox already have one of those in Crochet. 

Simply put, he is on the staff to provide innings alongside the sturdy Crochet (2.24 ERA), as well as Brayan Bello (3.03 ERA), Lucas Giolito (3.57 ERA), and the struggling yet postseason-specializing Walker Buehler (5.74 ERA, but a career 3.55 ERA).

Acquiring May over someone like Ryan also allowed Breslow to hold onto studs he possibly would have needed to part with to make a deal for Ryan, such as Duran (2.9 fWAR) and Abreu (2.2 fWAR).

Between the Devers trade giving the Red Sox a trade chip in Tibbs, creating a work environment for their talent to flourish, and freeing up cash to pay for Anthony’s $130 million, eight-year extension, Breslow evidently knows what he’s doing – even if fans hate to admit it. 

With all the Yankees’ and Mariners’ deadline moves making headlines, it was easy to knock Breslow’s intelligence without a deadline-day Jeff Passan “BREAKING” notification to highlight it, but he may have just had a trick up his sleeve the whole time.

Giants: Robbed By A Rut

As for the Giants, they seemed like winners from the minute the Rafael Devers blockbuster was announced. Their bullpen finally had an offensive stud to support it. 

When Devers arrived in San Francisco, and the Giants absorbed the eight years left on his contract, he embodied flexibility, announcing that he would play any position to help his team win — something he was seemingly unwilling to do in Boston. 

Yet, since the day they acquired Devers, the Giants have the third-worst record in baseball (17-27), only below the Washington Nationals (15-29) and Atlanta Braves (17-28).

Individually, he has struggled to a 30.9% strikeout rate — eight percentage points higher than with the Red Sox — and a .225/.340/.375 slash line, good for a .715 OPS. 

Originally crowned winners of the Devers blockbuster, the team once presumed to have given up next to nothing for a ruthless bat now needs another one.