Seven Players Who Could Boost Their Free Agent Stock With a Strong Finish

Obviously, any impending free agent would love to have a strong finish to the season before they reach the open market. But some have more to gain than others over the final two months of the season, and potentially into the playoffs.

Earlier this week on Just Baseball, we ranked the top 11 potential free agents for the 2024-25 offseason.

Based on that, here’s a specific look at some potential free agents who could improve their stock the most before the season concludes.

Whether it’s making an option decision easier or just proving their durability to prospective suitors, these seven players stand to alter their free agent standing significantly based on how they finish the campaign.

Stats updated prior to games on Aug. 12.

Seven Players Who Could Boost Their Free Agent Stock

Sean Manaea: LHP, New York Mets

Sean Manaea didn’t crack our list of the top potential free agents, but he has had a strong season for a Mets team in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. He’s 8-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 3.81 FIP over 123 innings pitched.

Barring a collapse down the stretch, the 32-year-old will almost certainly opt out of the second season of his two-year, $28 million deal and return to the open market.

While he may not do much better than the $13.5 million he’s scheduled to make with the Mets in 2025, Manaea will be able to get a larger total guarantee, probably on a two or three-year deal.

Matt Chapman: 3B, San Francisco Giants

How good of a first season is Matt Chapman having with the Giants? Well, if you use WAR to get a gauge on things, it depends on what version you prefer:

• Baseball Reference’s calculation, known as bWAR, has Chapman at 5.5, the eighth-best among all players in the sport.

• FanGraphs’ calculation, known as fWAR, has Chapman at 4.0. That’s still a solid number, as it’s his highest single-season total since 2019. But it’s not the superstar level he’s on pace for via bWAR.

In any event, Chapman remains an elite defender (11 defensive runs saved) who provides pop at the plate (19 home runs, 60 RBIs). He’s likely to opt out of the remaining two seasons on his three-year, $54 million contract, triggering a $2 million buyout.

The Giants, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, have interest in inking the 31-year-old to a long-term deal.

What’s scary for them is that Chapman won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer if he opts out, since he received one from the Toronto Blue Jays last offseason. And if he goes on a tear at the plate during the remainder of the 2024 season, the Scott Boras client is going to have a slew of other contenders interested in his services.

Gerrit Cole: RHP, New York Yankees

No, we aren’t suggesting that Gerrit Cole is particularly likely to hit the open market this offseason. But he does have an opt-out clause in his contract.

If exercised, the Yankees would either have to guarantee a 10th season in Cole’s contract at $36 million — which would be for 2029 — or let him return to the open market.

Given that Cole has probably been the best pitcher in baseball over the lifetime of the contract, he may opt out of the deal regardless of how his season finishes, knowing that when push comes to shove, the Yankees aren’t going to let him walk.

But Cole missed the first two and a half months of the season with right elbow inflammation and has a 4.70 ERA and 4.57 FIP across nine starts since returning from the injured list.

Getting back to pitching like himself would make Cole and the Yankees feel much better about what may prove to be procedural decisions in the winter.

Alex Bregman: 3B, Houston Astros

Alex Bregman got off to an ice-cold start to his contract year, posting a .577 OPS in March/April for the Astros. But he’s been on fire since the All-Star break, particularly in August, where he’s hitting .359 with a 1.097 OPS.

The two-time All-Star’s free agency is going to be complicated regardless of his finish for a few reasons.

• He will almost certainly have a qualifying offer attached to him, so any team other than the Astros will have to give up draft compensation to sign him.

• Bregman hasn’t matched the MVP level he played at between 2018 and 2019, but he was an All-Star level player between 2022 and 2023. 2024 has been a perplexing season that hasn’t offered any more clarity on exactly how good the 30-year-old still is.

• Fair or unfair, Bregman is one of the players most associated with the 2017 Astros. The sign-stealing scandal may mean that teams who otherwise make sense as possible Bregman suitors, like the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, aren’t players for his services.

Bregman still feels like he’s going to have more value to the Astros than any other club. But if he has a big finish to the season, the two-time World Series champion will force other suitors to consider him, even if they have some reservations.

Max Fried: LHP, Atlanta Braves

Since the start of the 2020 season, Max Fried has a 2.83 ERA, is the winner of three Gold Glove Awards and has two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume. But he “only” came in at No. 5 on our ranking of the top free agents for this upcoming offseason because of durability concerns.

Fried logged a career-high 185 2/3 innings for the Braves in 2022, finishing runner-up to Sandy Alcántara in NL Cy Young Award voting.

However, he only pitched 77 2/3 innings in 2023, limited by a left forearm strain and a blister on his left index finger. He’s logged 116 1/3 frames this year but did just return from a brief IL stint with left forearm neuritis.

Teams will have questions about whether they can build a starting rotation around the 30-year-old lefty, who will have a qualifying offer attached to him.

Fried could help to alleviate some concerns by staying healthy for the remainder of the regular season and getting better results in the postseason, where he has a 4.57 ERA across 65 career innings.

Cody Bellinger: OF/1B, Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger was one of the most difficult free agents to project last offseason, and while he wouldn’t have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around, not a ton else has changed.

Consider the drastic variances in performance from Bellinger:

• 2017-2019: .278/.369/.559, 111 home runs, 288 RBIs, .928 OPS, 15.4 fWAR
• 2020-2022: .203/.272/.376, 41 home runs, 134 RBIs, .648 OPS, 2.1 fWAR
• 2023: .307/.356/.525, 26 home runs, 97 RBIs, .881 OPS, 4.3 fWAR
• 2024: .279/.339/.433, 12 home runs, 45 RBIs, .772 OPS, 1.5 fWAR

Bellinger is still only 29 years old and offers tremendous defensive flexibility. But right now, it’s unclear if he’ll even opt out of the remaining two seasons of a three-year, $80 million contract.

A late-season surge from the former NL MVP would give him momentum heading into the offseason, and potentially back into free agency for the third year in a row.

Blake Snell: LHP, San Francisco Giants

Blake Snell will again be an imperfect free agent considering he’s had two stints on the injured list this year, which will keep the unfortunate trend of him not pitching more than 130 innings in any campaign other than his two Cy Young-winning ones alive.

With that said, Snell has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball since the start of July, which includes a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 2.

His 4.31 ERA over 12 starts doesn’t look great, but it’s inflated by some tough early starts and both his 2.74 expected ERA and 3.11 FIP suggest he’s been unlucky.

Teams looking for a workhorse still might not be in love with Snell, but it’s hard to argue with the results he gets when he’s right. Also, Snell won’t have a qualifying offer attached to him this winter if he does indeed opt out of the $38.5 million he’s due in 2025 ($15 million of that wouldn’t actually be paid until 2027).

If Snell pitches at a high level over his final six or so starts of the season, he projects to be the best pitcher not named Corbin Burnes on the open market.