Is Astros’ Alex Bregman Still the Best Free Agent at Third Base?

Entering the 2024 season, the Houston Astros looked poised to build upon their seventh consecutive trip to the ALCS and push for an eighth while also trying to claim their fourth straight AL West division title.

Third baseman Alex Bregman has played a huge role in the Astros’ sustained success over the better part of the last decade.

After a 2023 season in which he put up 25 HR and 98 RBI with a .262 AVG and an .804 OPS, Bregman was heading into the final year of his five-year, $100 million contract with a chance to be the undoubted best third baseman on the free agent market.

But 2024 did not start in an ideal way for Bregman or the Astros.

By June 1, the Astros sat 26-33, 6.5 games out of the top spot in the AL West and 6.5 games back of an American League Wild Card spot.

Bregman was hitting just .219 with a .652 OPS, a far cry from what he surely hoped for in a contract year.

But since then, both the Astros and Bregman have rebounded significantly. Houston now sits at 65-56, three games up on the Seattle Mariners for the top spot in the AL West. And Bregman has bounced back to a .261 AVG and a .764 OPS so far this season.

But with other potential free agent third basemen also surging as the regular season enters its final stretch, will Bregman still be the best free agent option at third this offseason?

All statistics used in this article are from prior to games on Aug. 17.

How Does Bregman Stack Up Against Other 3B in 2024?

Despite his slow start, Bregman’s rebound has found him in and amongst the best performers at the hot corner in MLB in 2024.

In more traditional metrics, Bregman ranks within the top 10 in homers (T-5th with 19), RBI (8th with 59), AVG (8th at .261) and OPS (10th at .764).

And in more advanced metrics, Bregman has also fared well. He ranks fifth in fWAR at 3.3 and ninth in wRC+ at 116.

Bregman also ranks well when it comes to his approach at the plate so far this season. He has the second-lowest strikeout rate among qualified third basemen in the majors at 13.0%, only trailing Cleveland Guardians All-Star José Ramirez.

Bregman also sits 11th among third basemen when it comes to getting on base via the free pass with a 7.1% walk rate.

He has also been one of the better defenders at the position in 2024, as he sits first in FanGraphs DEF with a 7.3 total. He also sits tied for third with five OAA and is one of only eight qualified third basemen with a positive DRS.

But of course, most of his fellow top third basemen will not be on the free agent market this winter. However, there’s one other key name who will also be in high demand come season’s end: Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants.

Who Holds More Value: Bregman or Chapman?

The conversation of who, between Bregman and Chapman, holds more value in free agency should be among the top storylines this offseason – should Chapman exercise his opt-out at the end of the year.

Career Comparison

In terms of their careers, it’s hard to argue against Bregman, especially when comparing statistics at the plate.

While Bregman does have one more season under his belt, he sits comfortably above Chapman in several major statistics, including a career fWAR that’s almost nine wins higher and a wRC+ that is 16 points higher than his counterpart in the Bay Area.

And season by season, Bregman has almost always bested Chapman at the plate. Bregman has just one season where he hasn’t hit above .250, whereas Chapman has only had one season where has has hit above .250.

Bregman also has just one season with an OPS under .775, and it’s this season, so that could very well change with a strong finish. Chapman has three seasons in which he has failed to reach that mark: his most recent three seasons (2021-23) heading into 2024.

On top of that, what Bregman also has in his favor is his runner-up finish in 2019 AL MVP voting, along with another top-5 finish the year prior. And of course, we can’t disregard the huge role that he’s played in two World Series champion teams, four World Series runs and seven straight ALCS visits.

Chapman has never finished higher than sixth in MVP voting, nor played for teams that have made similar runs to that of the Astros.

But Chapman makes up for his fewer team accomplishments and individual accolades at the plate with a track record for elite defensive performance.

Chapman is a two-time Platinum Glove winner and a four-time Gold Glove winner. Bregman has been a good defender his entire career, always posting a positive Fangraphs DEF rating, but never to the degree of Chapman, who has him beat by a wide margin in just about every defensive metric.

2024 Comparison

The 2024 season didn’t start particularly well for either Bregman or Chapman.

As we’ve already established, Bregman struggled during the first two months of the season, posting a .218 AVG and .580 OPS in the month of April, and a .219 AVG and .652 OPS in the month of May.

But come June, Bregman began digging himself out of his hole, hitting .310 with an .817 OPS that month. He then followed that up with a .263 AVG and .779 OPS in July. And so far in August, he’s been on a tear, hitting .340 with a 1.092 OPS in 56 plate appearances.

Chapman’s start was equally as rough as Bregman’s. In April, he posted a measly .212 AVG and .597 OPS to open his Giants career.

However, he pulled his way out of the hole a bit sooner than Bregman did, as from May 15 to 23, his AVG jumped 43 points from .206 to .249 and his OBP rose a staggering 154 points from .599 to .753. He would finish May with a .255 AVG and .791 OPS.

June and July were consistently solid months for Chapman, with a .253 AVG and .778 OPS, and a .239 and .823 OPS, respectively.

And like Bregman, Chapman has also turned his production up another notch so far in August, hitting .283 with a .960 OPS in 59 plate appearances.

On the 2024 season as a whole, both Bregman and Chapman have been virtually the same in counting stats, with matching 19-homer totals so far. Chapman’s 61 RBI only just edges out Bregman’s 59.

Bregman has the upper hand in batting average, but Chapman has the better on-base rate. Both are virtually the same when it comes to slugging.

Still, Chapman has been the better player when it comes to overall value metrics, with higher wRC+ and fWAR figures up to this point.

Chapman has also added a new element to his game in 2024 that we hadn’t seen from him until now: stolen bases. He’s managed to swipe 12 bags so far this season, up from his previous career high of four in 2023.

Bregman has just three steals this season and hasn’t posted double-digit swipe totals since 2018.

So, Who’s More Valuable Heading Into Free Agency?

With the numerous significant accolades Bregman has accumulated over nine seasons in Houston, paired with his overall consistent career statistics, such as his potential to post an OPS above .775 every year, his monetary demand this winter should be higher than Chapman’s.

But while Bregman definitely has more of a hill to stand on when it comes to asking for more money this offseason, the rebound season Chapman has enjoyed in 2024 could drum up more overall interest on the market. Teams might see him as a bit more of a value signing, while Bregman could be considered a top-end free agent.

Another important thing to note with these two free agents is that Scott Boras, the biggest and arguably toughest MLB agent in contract negotiations, represents both of them.

Chapman is fresh off an offseason of going through the free agent process, which means interested teams could have very recent negotiations with Boras and Chapman to build off of when negotiating with them this offseason.

The fact that they can measure Matt Chapman’s successful 2024 up against the $18 million per year the Giants gave him just one offseason ago could make his market a lot clearer than it was during his first trip to the market as a UFA, when it took him until early March to sign a contract.

Chapman will be another year older, heading into his age-32 season, but he also will not have a qualifying offer attached to him this winter.

One thing Chapman doesn’t have in his favor is the fact that he could very likely not have the chance to impress potential suitors with postseason play in 2024. Entering play on Aug. 17, the Giants are three games out of a postseason spot. Bregman and the Astros, on the other hand, seem poised to make their eighth straight trip to the postseason.

And if Bregman comes up big for Houston this October, it wouldn’t be the first time we saw an impending free agent boost his stock with a strong postseason performance.

Bregman is also a year younger than Chapman, but unlike Chapman, he will surely be saddled with a qualifying offer.

While I see Bregman being the best overall third baseman on the market this offseason, Chapman could very well be more coveted due to the fact he’ll likely demand fewer dollars per year, opening his market up to more suitors than just the top financial players.

Only time will tell though, but one thing’s for sure: The conversation at third base this winter will certainly heat up the hot stove.