The Pittsburgh Pirates Should Have Done More This Offseason
With a core of Paul Skenes, Oneil Cruz, Mitch Keller, and more, the Pirates should have made more impact moves to contend this offseason.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent years stuck in a vicious cycle of mediocrity, showing flashes of promise only to fall short due to a lack of external investment in talent.
This offseason was a prime opportunity for them to take a step forward, and support the young core they’ve begun to build in the Steel City, and they failed to deliver once again.
The Pirates currently possess arguably baseball’s best starting pitcher, Paul Skenes, as well as one of baseball’s better starting pitching trios. From Mitch Keller to Jared Jones, and eventually Bubba Chandler, this rotation is set up for success.
They also have one of baseball’s better, young, offensive threats in Oneil Cruz, and one of the game’s most consistent hitters in Bryan Reynolds.
Yet, despite this budding core of players, the team has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. As a team, their 86 wRC+ finished as the 28th-lowest in the league, and they don’t have a true third outfielder.
For a team that’s looking to contend, these offensive struggles have killed any hope they have at a potential playoff run. Once again, another offseason has gone by where they’ve not made significant upgrades offensively.
For a core this good, it’s truly heartbreaking to see this talent being wasted. This leaves baseball fans wondering; what should they have done differently?
They Should Have Done Better Landing a Third Outfielder
Arguably the main problem facing the Pittsburgh Pirates this past offseason was finding a third outfielder. Between Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, the outfield is already really solid, but they needed to find an impact bat to tie things together.
How did the Pirates choose to address this third outfield spot?
They decided to sign Tommy Pham to a one-year, $4 million deal. At year six of the rebuild, this is not the type of player you’d typically see a team try and acquire, especially given the other options available.
Tommy Pham’s 2024 season was the third-worst season of his career. He slashed just .248/.305/.368 with a 91 wRC+ while hitting just nine home runs and recording a -0.1 fWAR.
The free agent pool this offseason featured many affordable outfielders, yet the Pirates opted for one of the least impactful and one of the lowest-cost options available.
Granted, the Pirates are likely hoping that Pham can bounce back to the player he was in 2023, that hit .256/.328/.446, with 16 home runs, 68 RBIs, and a 109 wRC+. Still, set to enter his age-37 season, there were other bets in the market that were more worth making than one on Pham.
Randal Grichuk
For starters, the Arizona Diamondbacks brought back 32-year-old Randal Grichuk on a one-year deal worth just $5 million. This signing happened just days before the Pirates landed Pham, and it was a crushing blow, considering the fact that it is right in line with the $4 million they spent on Pham.
Now Grichuk returned to a great situation where he thrived in 2024, so he likely was always taking the D-Backs $5 million offer over the Pirates’, but if Pittsburgh outbid them they could have gotten a more high-impact player.
In 106 games last season, Grichuk hit 12 homers and slashed .291/.348/.528 with a 139 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR. When comparing him to Pham, you see that his wRC+ came in 50 points higher than Pham’s, while he was also worth 1.6 fWAR more than him as well.
The Pirates were also looking for a player who killed left-handed pitching, which they could have found in Grichuk. Grichuk’s wRC+ against lefties was 151, showing his dominance against them.
This type of penny-pinching is exactly what the Pirates shouldn’t still be doing.
Austin Hays
Another outfielder the Pirates missed out on, was Austin Hays. Hays signed with the Reds on a one-year deal worth $5 million, which was an affordable option.
While Hays might not come with as good of a bat as Grichuk, his 2024 season was an upgrade from Tommy Pham’s. In 85 games, Hays slashed .255/.303/.396 with a 98 wRC+, and a 0.2 fWAR. Hays also comes with an 86th percentile arm, which is a place the Pirates need help defensively.
Again, this signing still wouldn’t have moved the needle very far, but it was an upgrade from Pham’s 91 wRC+ for just $1 million more. At 29 years old, Hays is looking to set himself up for a bigger deal in the future. If the Pirates could have sold him on coming to play an everyday role in wide-open NL Central, maybe he would have chosen them over the Rays.
More Expensive Options
While both Grichuk and Hays would’ve been upgrades in the outfield, neither hitter was the true upgrade they should be acquiring at this stage in the rebuild. Not only were they one of the worst-hitting teams in the league by wRC+, but they also finished 25th in team home runs, showing their need for a middle-of-the-order level bat.
The most obtainable player of this caliber was Tyler O’Neill, who eventually went on to sign a three-year deal worth $49.5 million, which comes out to an AAV of $16.5 million.
The Pirates haven’t had a hitter hit 30 or more homers since 2006, and with O’Neill’s 31 homers in 113 games last season, it’s reasonable to assume he’d come close to this number with the Bucs.
Of course, given the Pirates’ lack of spending, this was never realistically going to happen. But, this type of signing shouldn’t be a huge thing to ask for.
Their last multi-year free agent deal came in 2016 when the team inked Ivan Nova to a three-year deal, and they should be stepping it up with the team’s current pitching staff. With Tyler O’Neill, this would’ve been the perfect opportunity to begin to correct the trend.
They could’ve also attempted to sign Max Kepler or Michael Conforto, who both signed for more expensive deals and have the potential to project to be better hitters than Pham by a good margin.
The Pirates were also linked to Taylor Ward at last year’s trade deadline, which I’d argue is the best pairing possible if they’d like to spend a little more money. Ward shouldn’t cost a lot in trade, and he’s currently making just $7.825 million after avoiding arbitration with the Angels this winter.
Ward’s 111 wRC+ and 25 homers would mesh perfectly with their current lineup structure, but once again, no deal has been made.
Not addressing the outfield in a big way will likely come back to massively bite the club, as their offense is projected to struggle once again.
Lone Bright Spot: Adding Spencer Horwitz
Although the Pirates may not have had a huge addition in the outfield, they were able to land a solid upgrade at first base in Spencer Horwitz. Ahead of the offseason, first base was the other major area where they needed to upgrade, so getting an impact bat there is really great.
Last year, he’d play 97 games at the Major League level, where he’d crush 12 home runs, record an 11%/18.4% strikeout to walk rate, slash .265/.357/.433, with a 127 wRC+, and 1.9 fWAR. If Horwitz can replicate this again in 2025, this is a massive addition to the lineup.
Horwitz will likely be more impactful against right-handed pitching, as his wRC+ was 94 points higher vs righties. While his elite plate discipline and ability to hit breaking balls well leaves room for upside, this will definitely be something to keep an eye on.
The Bucs haven’t seen a qualified first baseman post a wRC+ above 130 since Josh Bell in 2019. With how Horwitz played this past season, there’s reason to believe he could end this streak.
While they haven’t upgraded a lot offensively the Horwitz acquisition was one of the better moves this front office made this offseason, and they do deserve some credit for it.
Unfortunately, it was recently announced that Horwitz is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks due to a wrist injury, which brings some concern along with the positive aspects of this move. But, hopefully, when this time frame is up, he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day.
Lackluster Bullpen Additions and Adding Andrew Heaney
Another one of the key areas that Ben Cherington needed to address, would be the team’s bullpen. They’d be losing a few relievers, with the most notable of them being Aroldis Chapman. Chapman gave the club over 60 stable innings last season, which wouldn’t be an easy thing to replace.
How did Cherington and the Pirates choose to replace these innings? With a group of cheaper arms, most of which are coming off of rough seasons.
The best of this bunch though, is left-hander Caleb Ferguson, who brings some upside along with him to Pittsburgh. Ferguson is coming off a season where he pitched to a 4.64 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, and an ERA+ of 88.
While this may not look great on the surface, Ferguson’s numbers look a lot better under the hood. For example, his barrel rate finished in the 74th percentile, and when paired with his 78th percentile strikeout rate, you could see a dangerous combination.
Unfortunately, not all of the arms they brought in have this much to say about them positively. Tim Mayza was brought in on a one-year deal, while Peter Strzelecki, Chase Shugart, and Brett de Geus were all brought in via trade.
Mayza is the most notable of these arms, as just two seasons ago he was one of the best left-handers in baseball. But, this is not the same pitcher Mayza is now. He pitched to an ERA+ of just 65 between two teams in 2024, while allowing barrels at a concerning, 9.3% clip.
Peter Strzelecki looked solid in his 11 innings, pitching to a 2.31 ERA. While there could be some positive upside here, Strzelecki was not nearly that good during his last taste of significant action.
In 2023, he looked a lot more like a league-average player, posting barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and more around the 50th percentile.
Both de Geus and Shugart threw in limited time last year, making them more like wildcards for this next season.
It’s disappointing to see the Pirates take the wild card route once again with so many affordable arms available. For example, pitchers like José Leclerc and Danny Coulombe signed relatively cheap deals, and have been far better over a lot more innings than the arms the Pirates decided to bring in.
Again, with a core as good as the Pirates have now, it’s super discouraging to see them continue to elect the wild card route, instead of the more proven, consistently good options.
The Pirates did however make an interesting signing on the starting pitching market, which could make for an interesting battle for the rotation this Spring. This player, was lefty Andrew Heaney.
Unlike the other pitching additions the Pirates made this offseason, Heaney is more intriguing. He’s coming off a solid season for the Texas Rangers, where he pitched to a 4.28 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate, 92 ERA+, recording a 2.2 fWAR in 160 innings.
Heaney signed for $5.25 million, and he should become part of the Pirates’ starting pitching battle this spring. He should bring quality innings to the rotation, tying the rotation together until one of the younger arms is ready. He could serve in a similar role to Jose Quintana, becoming a trade deadline candidate.
When Will They Do Something Differently?
As for when the Pirates will change their ways, it’s unclear if that will ever happen under their current owner Bob Nutting. As I previously mentioned, their last multi-year free-agent deal came back in 2016, and the Pirates haven’t brought in a significant player via the free-agent market in a long time.
Despite having one of the better farm systems in all of baseball, they’ve been reluctant to use the trade market as well, which doesn’t give me much hope there either. The most significant moves they’ve made via the trade market since 2016 have been Chris Archer and now Spencer Horwitz.
When asked if the Pirates were on the verge of manning a big move before the start of spring training games, Cherington responded with a very disappointing answer.
Cherington said, “We’re not on the doorstep of anything.”
This offseason demonstrated more of what we already knew we’d see from the Pirates; cheapness, incompetence, and the unwillingness to pursue franchise-altering moves.
The team has even shown hesitance to make smaller upgrades, which just isn’t enough for where they stand now. With the quote from Ben Cherington also coming out of the Pirates’ camp, we see that nothing was ever really in the works either.
With Skenes, Jones, Keller, Cruz, Reynolds, and more on the squad, there is truly no time like the present to act. This is the window the Pirates have been rebuilding to reach for years, and if they don’t take advantage of it, this will be one of the biggest failures the game has seen in a while.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…