Top Notes From the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS Projections

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming into the 2025 season in a very interesting place. The main aspect of the team leading the way will be the pitching staff, which possesses the game’s best arm, Paul Skenes. Although it’s somewhat lackluster, the Pirates’ offense also possesses some heavy hitters such as Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.

With the team still having a decent amount of holes, however, they’ll be relying on a lot of their younger talent to assist them in 2025. Star prospects like Bubba Chandler have a real shot at the NL Rookie of the Year, while guys like Nick Gonzales need to pull their weight.

Despite the holes in the Pirates’ lineup, Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS projections bring a lot of hope for the future and what this team may achieve in 2025.

Szymborski‘s ZiPS projection model has consistently been one best and most reliable projection systems in baseball. ZiPS projections have become a staple of FanGraphs and have been incredibly helpful for getting an idea of what the future holds for certain players.

For anyone unfamiliar with ZiPS projections, below is a description from MLB.com regarding how the system works, and what it is.

Like other projection systems, ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

No one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

In the latter part of January, the Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS projections were featured on FanGraphs, for fans to see how their favorite Pirates players might perform.

Honestly, there’s both a lot to be excited about and a lot to be more cautious about. So, without further ado, let’s break down the ZiPS projections for the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pirates Starting Pitcher ZiPS Projections

The most obvious strong suit of the Pirates’ team heading into 2025 is by far their pitching staff. The team’s general manager, Ben Cherington, has done a really good job bolstering the pitching depth during his time in Pittsburgh, and his pieces have finally begun to reach MLB.

This will also be the first full MLB season for the team’s ace, Paul Skenes, and fans are eager to see if he can continue his journey toward his first NL Cy Young Award. Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, and Johan Oviedo all have a lot riding on 2025 as well.

With that said, here are the key points from the Pirates’ starting pitcher ZiPS projections:

• ZiPS has Skenes’ dominance continuing – After his historic 2024 campaign, ZiPS has Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner, continuing his dominance. ZiPS has Skenes throwing just over 155 innings, recording 181 strikeouts, a 3.25 ERA, and 3.7 fWAR. While this would be a slight step back from his 2024 season, these numbers would still allow Skenes to be in the conversation for one of the top starters in all of baseball.
  
• Jones records a good sophomore season – Aside from Skenes, righty Jared Jones also showed a lot of promise in his rookie season in 2024. ZiPS projects more of the same from Jones in 2025, with him pitching to a 3.89 ERA while recording 131 strikeouts in nearly 130 innings. He’s also projected to put up a 2.1 fWAR.
  
• Keller continues to be Mr. Consistent – Over the past few seasons, Mitch Keller has developed into one of baseball’s more consistent right-handed pitchers. Keller has recorded an ERA between 3.91 and 4.25 in each of the last three seasons, and ZiPS expects more of the same in 2025. According to the projections, he’ll throw to a 4.02 ERA while striking out 21.2% of batters in 168 innings.
  
• Oviedo and Falter stay reliable – Skenes, Jones, and Keller aren’t the only Pirates starters who are set to throw consistent innings, as ZiPS has Johan Oviedo and Bailey Falter joining them. Both starters are set to pitch to an ERA in the lower fours while throwing over 100 innings each. If these projections come to fruition, they’ll finish with similar stat lines at the end of the season.
  
• Multiple rookies make an impact – Fans have high expectations for many of the young arms who could debut next season, including Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft. 2025’s ZiPS projections have them all throwing to ERAs between 4.00 and 4.50, showing signs of promise across the board. While they’ll perform more towards league average according to the projections, there’s a lot to like about these three young arms.

Pirates Relief Pitcher ZiPS Projections

Before the 2024 season, the one place the Pirates were expected to shine the most was within their bullpen. But, due in part to the collapse of David Bednar and late-season struggles from Colin Holderman, this did not come to fruition.

If the Pirates succeed in 2025, their bullpen must return to its dominant ways. ZiPS projects some bright spots in their bullpen, which may help them in a big way.

• Free agent signing Caleb Ferguson shines bright – After signing him to a one-year contract worth $3 million this offseason, the Pirates hope to get a lot out of their new top left-handed reliever, Caleb Ferguson. ZiPS has Ferguson tossing almost 55 innings, posting a 3.29 ERA, striking out close to 25% of batters, and recording 0.8 fWAR. If Ferguson throws anywhere near this level, it’ll be a huge win for the club.
  
• Bednar bounces back – One of the main causes of the Pirates’ downfall last season was the collapse of David Bednar. But fast forward to 2025, and ZiPS expects Bednar to return to his All-Star ways. He’s projected to throw 60 innings while recording a 25.7% strikeout rate and an ERA of 3.60. If Bednar can return to this level, it’ll be a huge factor in the club’s success.
  
• Mlodzinski and Holderman become key arms – Last season, Colin Holderman’s struggles hurt the team at a time when they needed consistent arms. Camren Mlodzinski’s time on the injured list also hurt the Pirates. In 2025, ZiPS has both of these arms becoming key pieces of the team’s bullpen, with both of them posting ERAs around 3.90 and strikeout rates above 20%. If this becomes a reality, Holderman and Mlodzinski will both be key parts of the bullpen.
  
• Dennis Santana breaks out – After being claimed by the Pirates last June 11, Dennis Santana became one of the most reliable arms in the club’s bullpen, as he pitched to a 173 ERA+ in 44.1 innings. According to the ZiPS projections, Santana’s success wasn’t just a fluke. He’s projected to cover 60 innings, pitching to a 3.79 ERA and a strikeout rate just over 23%. The Pirates need the breakout of Santana to continue to have a stable bullpen in 2025.

Pirates Position Player ZiPS Projections

If the Pirates are going to succeed in 2025, the team’s offense needs to take a step forward. In 2024, their team wRC+ of just 86 ranked 28th in baseball, which was a huge reason for their downfall. The Pirates found themselves scrapping together an offense numerous times throughout the season, which a contending team can’t be doing.

However, ZiPS is projecting a lot of positive things regarding their offense. If this comes to reality, I’ll feel a lot better about the team’s chances in the 2025 season.

• Horwitz is a warm addition to the offense – The Pirates’ biggest move this offseason was the acquisition of Spencer Horwitz, a lefty batter who showed a lot of promise in 2024. ZiPS expects big things from Horwitz in 2025, making him a warm addition to the offense. He’s projected to post a team-best 119 wRC+ and a .344 wOBA while being worth 2.5 fWAR. Unfortunately, Horwitz will miss some time early in the season with a wrist injury, but the Pirates will hope he’s back soon enough that he can still get close to that 2.5-win projection.
  
• Cruz continues 2024 success – In 2024, Oneil Cruz had his best season. He finally figured things out at the dish and handled a new home in center field with strength. In 2025, ZiPS projects Cruz to continue his 2024 success and be a big part of the Pirates’ offense. Cruz is projected to have a 20/20 season while recording a 112 wRC+ and a three-win season.
  
• Reynolds stays consistent – For a lineup that showed a lack of consistency throughout the last few seasons, Bryan Reynolds has been the team’s best and most consistent hitter. If all goes to plan, the Steel City can expect similar play from him in 2025 according to ZiPS. Reynolds is projected to post the second-highest wRC+ on the roster (114), while also posting a .340 on-base and a 2.5-win season.
  
• ZiPS has high hopes for Suwinski resurgence – When sifting through the ZiPS projections for 2025, the most surprising thing I noticed was that ZiPS is very bullish on a Jack Suwinski resurgence. Suwinski is projected to hit 22 homers while posting a 109 wRC+, as well as a .323 OBP, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. With the Pirates’ fix for their outfield seemingly being Tommy Pham, Suwinski should get more chances, and this type of production could be game-changing.
  
• Catcher battle stays tough – The Pirates will have a catching battle on their hands in spring training that could go any of three ways. Joey Bart, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez all have a shot to be the team’s starter, and it’ll likely be an Opening Day decision for the Buccos. ZiPS projects all three catchers to put up similar seasons, with Bart and Davis finishing within three points difference in their wRC+. While ZiPS is lower on Endy Rodriguez’s bat, this is a situation to keep an eye on.
  
• Youngsters improve – If the Bucs want any shot at competing this season, their young players will need to step up in a big way. ZiPS expects this, with Nick Gonzales and Joshua Palacios both projected to have career seasons. For Gonzales, seeing him become the 105 wRC+ hitter and 2.6-WAR player he’s projected to be would be great given his former identity as a top prospect. Palacios’ step forward would be amazing considering the team’s lack of outfield depth. Palacios is projected to finish slightly closer to league average (104 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR), but this team desperately needs more of these types of hitters.
  
• Struggling vets – Unfortunately, with all of the positive takeaways from the ZiPS projections, there are some drawbacks. The first of these is Ke’Bryan Hayes continuing to be an offensive liability, projected to finish with significantly below-league-average numbers for the second year in a row. Also, ZiPS expects worse production out of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and below-league-average numbers from Andrew McCutchen. For the Pirates offense to come together, their veterans need to perform better than expected.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the Pirates’ 2025 ZiPS projections paint a picture of a team with both promise and uncertainty. There are clear reasons for optimism, including Paul Skenes, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, and more to potential breakouts from Nick Gonzales and Jack Suwinski that could push the team forward.

However, the projections also highlight lingering concerns, particularly with the club’s outfield depth and the whole offense overall.

If everything goes right, the Pirates could exceed expectations and take a step toward contention. But, if their outfield depth doesn’t perform, and the rest of the team falls apart, they could be looking at yet another season of mediocrity.