With an Expiring Core, the Phillies Must Go Wild at the Deadline

Without a doubt, the Philadelphia Phillies have been one of baseball’s best teams over the past few seasons. They reached the World Series in 2022, fell one game shy of the World Series in 2023, and won the division for the first time in over a decade in 2024.

With that said, the Phillies were eliminated by their division rival in the NLDS last year, marking their second year in a row of having a shorter playoff run than the season prior.

Since Dave Dombroski joined the organization ahead of the 2021 season, in typically Dombroski form, the Phillies have been aggressive. Adding Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Jesus Luzardo, and others, along with a number of extensions, have shown just how hungry they are to hoist a trophy.

However, time could be running out for this team as we know it. Players aging, contracts expiring, and Dombrowski aging lead me to believe they will be the most aggressive team at this year’s deadline. And rightfully so.

An Expiring Core

Don’t get me wrong, the Phillies are not necessarily hitting their aging curve just yet, but how many years left do their impact players have? Not to mention, a few franchise staples are approaching the end of their contracts making this playoff run even more crucial for determining their future path.

Although a number of players still have terms left on their contracts, they are on the wrong side of 30. No, that does not mean they can’t be productive, but it does mean each year is closer to decline. J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Schwarber, and, to a lesser extent, Matt Strahm have been impact players and leaders of this team and could all be gone after this season.

Aaron Nola, who’s been with the team since 2015, will have to show he can battle back from injury while Zack Wheeler, one of the best pitchers in the game, mentioned he will be retiring at the end of his contract.

I don’t have any data and particular stats to back this up, but doesn’t it just feel like this is one of, if not the, last best chance for the Phillies? An early exit would not only mean the aforementioned pending free agents could be gone, but a bit of a roster shake-up would be in store.

The next phase around Harper and Turner would have to come in with hopes of squeaking out a couple more chances before Wheeler retires and Harper and Turner begin to (potentially) slow down.

Depending on how this season plays out could impact contract decisions for players like Luazardo, who they acquired this past winter. Would Bohm finally get the divorce from Philly that has felt inevitable? Questions and discussions for a later date which would of course be easier to handle if the Phillies are the last team standing.

What do the Phillies Need?

Despite an earlier than expected exit from the postseason, the Phillies did not make many major moves this offseason. Acquiring Luzardo from Miami was the headliner, Max Kepler was the ancillary piece, and Jordan Romano was the project.

Luzardo has been a plus, Romano inconsistent, and Kepler a clone of what too many Phillies players have been – average to below average. In fact, six of the nine regulars have hovered between an 80 to 105 wRC+. Not good enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

The locks are Turner at short, Harper at first, Schwarber at DH, and Realmuto at catcher, with the rest of the team hardly comfortable enough to be considered locks. I’m sure Castellanos will remain in right, no matter how ugly the defense looks.

Brandon Marsh and/or Bryson Stott are decent enough to not have to upgrade, but only if improvements are added elsewhere. The bottom of the order can only hold so many players. Edmundo Sosa has been a valuable utility piece and at times a savior, which is both a blessing and a curse.

Third base could use an upgrade. Bohm has been injured, and when healthy, has limitations that cap his ceiling. The backup catcher situation isn’t great, and Realmuto not swinging it as well jumps the priority up a notch. I’d rather see Kepler as a bench bat with Marsh in a corner, an upgrade in center, and Rojas either traded or back in the minors. Hell, the bench as a whole could use a facelift.

On the pitching side of things, another bullpen arm would help. Right now, the Phillies are putting a lot of faith in Orion Kerkering, who has been solid, but not as dominant as last season. To put it simply, there are too many guys who are unestablished, unproven, and underwhelming.

The needs are clear, but with what appears to be a seller’s market, Philadelphia is going to have to outbid other contenders for the few options that could raise this team’s floor.

Will they Make a Splash?

The Phillies seemed like the natural fit for Luis Robert Jr. all offseason, but Robert’s market has cooled thanks to a disappointing .201/.289/.342 slash and 75 wRC+, which would be the second straight poor season for Robert.

Cedric Mullins is having a down year but his value will still be high enough for a contender to roll the dice. Mullins would essentially replace Kepler’s lefty bat, move Marsh to left, and even set up a Kepler/ Castellanos platoon in the playoffs.

While either Robert or Mullins are worthy center fielders to take a flier on, adding either hardly qualifies as making a splash. Instead, the Phillies could set their sights higher and try to pull off a trade for Red Sox star Jarren Duran.

Duran would give the Phillies a legitimate shot in the arm, and the three years of control he has beyond this season would help to extend the window, getting a jumpstart on reshaping this roster.

We could walk through every possible target, but I’m sure by now you have constructed your own list. What’s more important is if the Phillies will be willing to move the pieces it would take in order to acquire your favorite difference maker in the next couple of weeks.

No matter where you look, the Phillies have a middle-of-the-pack farm system that has four top 100 prospects, according to Just Baseball’s list. Those four are Andrew Painter (No. 11), Aidan Miller (No. 39), Eduardo Tait (No. 47), and Aroon Escobar (No. 87). Justin Crawford and Mick Abel are on some lists, while Johan Rojas would still be attractive to a rebuilding team.

Without a doubt, the Phillies have the ammo to pull off an impact trade. Although unlikely to be moved, Painter could be the best prospect even remotely available at the deadline. Teams are always interested in catching prospects. With Tait being only 18 years old and years away, it could be the perfect blend of value and not close enough to helping the Phillies that they use him in a trade.

Knowing that the pieces are there to pull it off, and the team is not generating enough offense, I think the front office sees this particular window closing and meets the demands to execute a deal. Especially with Steven Cohen just behind them and also needing upgrades.

Final Thoughts

The Bryce Harper signing was a statement, and the Trea Turner deal only solidified it. The Phillies are going to be World Series contenders year in and year out. They showed that to be true in 2022, and one run at a ring is not enough to satisfy Dave Dombroski and the ownership group.

A level of investment of this size does not get left up to hoping certain players can rebound, have a hot stretch, or rookies can save the day. When you invest like Philadelphia has, you need to exhaust all resources to give your team the best chance to match what the Eagles have brought this city – a parade.