The Case for an NL MVP Not Named Shohei Ohtani
Why Pete Crow-Armstrong, and a few others, can still crash the two-way superstar's coronation.
The Shohei Ohtani MVP machine has felt inevitable for a few years now. The 2021 and 2023 American League MVP burst onto the NL scene last year with a record-setting debut that earned him 2024 NL MVP honors.
Anticipating his return to two-way play in 2025, everyone believed the MVP race was over before it could start. Through the first half of 2025, he’s been nothing short of excellent; but this year, the door is open.
While BetMGM still has Ohtani as a heavy -800 favorite to repeat as NL MVP, I believe the National League race has far more intrigue than the AL, even if Cal Raleigh is +300 to Aaron Judge’s -650. The difference in the NL is that Ohtani has shown some cracks in the armor, while a legitimate challenger has emerged in Chicago.
Let’s make the case for Pete Crow-Armstrong, and a few other dark horses, in a race that isn’t over just yet.
Shohei Ohtani Is Still the Favorite, But He’s Not Untouchable
Through 95 games, Ohtani’s stat line remains elite: .276/.382/.605 (.988 OPS), 32 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SB. He’s top-three in homers and OPS, and he remains a Statcast darling:
- 99th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and average exit velocity
- 96th in bat speed
- 94th in walk rate
After hitting .298 with a 1.062 OPS at the end of May, Ohtani has slumped badly since taking the mound again in June, though.
Over his last 87 at-bats, he’s hitting just .195 with 28 strikeouts. He’s off to a rough .186 start in July, and his production has clearly dipped as he’s tried to balance the demands of hitting and pitching again.
As a pitcher, he’s made just five starts (9.0 IP total) with a tidy 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, but that adds just 0.4 bWAR. In total, he’s at 4.3 bWAR, and with his reduced baserunning and uncertain pitching workload, the gap is smaller than you think.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: The Two-Way Star Who Isn’t a Two-Way Player
Let’s talk about the guy who’s second in all of MLB in fWAR behind Aaron Judge: Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has 5.4 bWAR through 95 games.
PCA is doing everything, and I mean everything, at an elite level:
- 25 HR, 27 SB, 71 RBI, 67 runs, .544 SLG
- He has already become just the third player ever with 25+ HR and 25+ SB before the All-Star break (Barry Bonds, Eric Davis)
He’s also scorching in July: 5 multi-hit games, an OPS of .919, and a legitimate shot to go 40/40 or better by year’s end. The advanced metrics, according to Baseball Savant, are equally bonkers:
- 100th percentile in fielding run value, 98th in baserunning run value, 90th in hitting run value
- 97th percentile sprint speed, 91st arm value, 87th barrel rate, 88th xSLG
And remember, he’s doing this as a 23-year-old center fielder in just his second season.
Yes, he chases (first percentile), and his walk rate (4.5%) is low, but his strikeout rate has stabilized and his ability to generate production despite a free-swinging approach is remarkable.
If he keeps this up, and the Cubs continue to chase the Dodgers in the standings, it’s absolutely possible he leapfrogs Ohtani, especially if Shohei’s second-half hitting doesn’t rebound or if his pitching workload stays light.
The Supporting Cast in Chicago: Friend or Foe?
One challenge for PCA’s MVP campaign? His own teammates.
- Kyle Tucker: 4.0 bWAR, 17 HR, 22 SB, OPS near .990
- Michael Busch: 3.4 bWAR, OPS north of .920, 19 HR, .290 AVG
- Nico Hoerner: 3.7 bWAR, just 28 Ks in 350 ABs
This Cubs team is loaded. That can work both ways, and it could muddy the “he’s carrying them” argument.
Still, PCA is the straw that stirs the drink. He’s the guy who sparks rallies, steals runs defensively, and changes games with speed and swagger. If voters recognize his role as the engine of a rising Cubs contender, he’s got a real chance.
PCA Has a Path
Yes, Ohtani is the favorite. But this isn’t 2024. His plate performance has dipped since returning to the mound. He’s running less, connecting with the barrel less, and hasn’t fully ramped up as a pitcher. That makes the race real.
If PCA continues his current trajectory, this race could flip. It’s not likely. But it’s not unthinkable.
And if PCA hits 40 bombs, steals 50 bags, wins a Gold Glove in center field, and the Cubs pass the Dodgers? The MVP voters may not be able to resist.
James Wood: The Breakout Nobody Saw Coming This Fast
James Wood, the 22-year-old Nationals phenom, ranks fifth among MLB position players in bWAR (4.4) and owns a .915 OPS to go with 24 HR and 69 RBI through 95 games.
He’s already drawing Barry Bonds-level respect. Literally, he was intentionally walked four times in one game in late June, which is the first time that’s happened since Bonds in 2004.
Wood’s Baseball Savant profile is electric:
- 95th+ percentile in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and bat speed
- 98th in batting run value
- 94th in walk rate and xwOBA
On a contending team, he’d be squarely in the conversation. But the Nationals aren’t quite there yet, and that may limit how far his MVP push goes in 2025. Still, he’s been undeniably one of the five best players in the National League.
Juan Soto: Don’t Count Him Out Just Yet
Juan Soto started slow in New York, but since June, he’s been heating up. Here are his overall numbers on the year:
- 23 HR, .396 OBP, .905 OPS, 77 walks to 78 Ks
- 3.9 bWAR and trending upward fast
If Soto hits .310+ in the second half, carries the Mets to a playoff berth, and overtakes Ohtani in WAR, there’s a clear narrative case to be made. He’s still got the best plate discipline in baseball and the superstar pedigree to finish strong.
His Odds? +2000 at BetMGM. Not bad for a guy with this kind of upside.
The Pitcher Dilemma: Wheeler & Skenes Deserve a Shout
In an era where pitchers rarely win MVP (unless they’re also hitting 40 bombs), Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes still deserve mention.
Wheeler has done Wheeler things once again in 2025:
- 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 154 Ks in 122 IP
- Two recent outings: Complete game with 12 Ks and 1 run, preceded by 8 shutout innings with 10 Ks
- 97th percentile xERA, 100th percentile fastball run value
He’s pacing for a career year and anchoring a Phillies team built for October.
Skenes, meanwhile, is putting on quite the encore to his generational rookie campaign: 2.01 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 131 Ks in 121 IP. The problem? The Pirates are managing his innings. He’s reached 6 IP just once in his last six starts. That will hurt his overall MVP case in the long run.
Both are front-runners for the NL Cy Young, but it’s tough to imagine them overtaking the rest of the contenders.
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