For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
It’s been a couple of days since I’ve put out a write up. I’ve had a hectic week with graduating college, but I am back. I have winners to give out and last week we went on a solid 14-7 run picking up +7.3 units on the week. I have three plays on the card, including a two unit play, let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 99-65-2 (+28.00 U)
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals @ 4:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs. Patrick Corbin
Call me crazy, but I’m backing Patrick Corbin today.
This is the final game of the series, and David Peterson takes the mound for New York. Peterson has been awful this year, he is 1-5 with a 7.68 ERA. His .449 xwOBAcon ranks toward the bottom of the league according to Statcast, and he’s facing a Washington team that mashes lefties.
The Nationals have been one of the best teams against left-handers this year. They are batting .297 with a .422 SLG and .782 OPS against lefties and only have 66 Ks compared to 214 Ks against righties. This is not a good matchup for Peterson, and I see this lineup getting to him early.
Patrick Corbin, on the other hand, has been pitching really well. He’s had five straight quality starts, and in the month of May he has a 2.77 ERA. Corbin has been a fade spot in most starts, but the Mets have been worse against lefties this year batting .237 with .313 OBP. I pride myself in knowing when to ride with the Nationals and today is one of those days.
The Play: Washington Nationals F5 ML (+130) 1 U to win 1.3 U
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Grayson Rodriguez
We are fading the public in this one. Anytime Ohtani takes the bump, the public is going to be all over it. The Angels are recieving 70% of the bets and the line opened at -130 and now the line is down to -125 in most books. If majority of the bets are on Los Angeles, then why is the line moving in the other direction? This is a sharp reverse line movement in the Orioles’ favor.
The Orioles are 14-9 against righties, 13-6 at home, and have the better run differential. Baltimore is +30 while Los Angeles is +9 and the O’s have been pretty profitable this season, if you’ve bet them in every game you’d be up about +8 units, and if you bet the Angels every game you’d be down over -4 units.
I’m taking the Orioles at home, this is a fishy line and it’s the most heavily bet game of the night. I’m getting Baltimore at plus money as well, and I see LA’s bullpen ruining another start for Ohtani tonight.
The Play: Baltimore Orioles ML (+117) 1 U to win 1.17 U
Arizona Diamonbacks vs. Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Merrill Kelly vs. Drew Rucinski
Coming into this game, the D-backs (or the Snakes, as I like to call them) are playing good baseball as of late. They just took three out of four games from San Francisco, and they have a great matchup against Rucinski. The A’s have the wost record in baseball and I’ve been finding ways to fade Oakland in the first game of a new series.
Merrill Kelly is 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and is coming off a shaky performance where he gave up four runs over six innings in a loss against Miami. I see this as a good bounce back spot for Kelly and he shouldn’t have a problem against this Oakland lineup.
Rucinski, on the other hand, might be the worst pitcher in all of baseball. He has yet to win a game this season and hasn’t allowed less than three runs in a start all year. His xERA is 6.59, which ranks in the bottom 8% of the league according to Statcast. His opponents xBA is .320, and Rucinski doesn’t have put away stuff, he has a 8.2 K% which is in the bottom 1% of the league.
Let’s go Snakes.
The Play: Arizona Diamondback F5 -1/2 (-130) 2.6 U to win 2 U