Are the Padres the Scariest Team To Face in a Playoff Series?

This past weekend was not great for the San Diego Padres.

Riding a five-game winning streak, the Padres felt confident going into their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the feeling quickly dissipated, as the Dodgers would go on to win three straight, sweeping the series.

Not only that, Jackson Merrill exited Sunday’s game with an aggravated ankle. It was reported later that evening that the injury first began during Friday’s game.

While the situation appears bleak at first glance, their performance this past weekend was not representative of their season as a whole.

The aforementioned five-game streak was a part of a stretch where the Padres won 14 out of 17 games. Going back further, the Padres’ .600 winning percentage since the start of July ranks fifth best in MLB.

Conversely, the Dodgers’ .462 winning percentage over the same span places them squarely at 20th. Their 18-21 record has allowed the Padres to steadily gain ground in the NL West division standings and (briefly) overtake the Dodgers for first place.

Though their time at the top of the division did not last long, they remain a significant threat. They stand just 2.5 games out of first place with a chance to recoup their losses when the Dodgers come to San Diego this upcoming weekend.

After winning the World Series in 2024, many in the Dodgers’ organization openly stated that their NLDS against the Padres was by far their toughest matchup. Some lauded them as “the best team in baseball” when the two faced off.

The Padres have had some rough patches throughout 2025, including this most recent series. Despite this, they are in a prime position to go on a run in the playoffs, and potentially even win the division.

Many core players from last year’s roster are still in place. The Padres also made several additions in the offseason and at the trade deadline.

With the end of the season rapidly approaching, this all raises the question: Are the Padres the scariest team to face in October this year?

All stats updated before play on August 20.

Top-Shelf Stuff

Last season, much of the Padres’ claim to fame rested on the fact that their bullpen was one of the league’s best.

Robert Suarez, Adrián Morejón, and Jeremiah Estrada were standout relievers throughout the 2024 season. At the trade deadline, the Padres added Tanner Scott and Jason Adam to round out an incredibly dynamic bullpen. 

The tandem of Scott and Adam was dominant in the late innings and played a key role in their late-season surge. This year, the Padres looked to make a similar move by acquiring Mason Miller from the Athletics at the deadline.

Prior to the trade, the Padres already boasted arguably the best bullpen in the league. Their 2.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 5.5 reliever fWAR on July 31 were the best in baseball through that point, and they ranked top ten in K/9, BB/9, and HR/9.

Adam (1.65 ERA), Morejón (1.92 ERA), and Estrada (2.54 ERA) have been lights out for the Padres yet again. They’ve also gotten great performances out of Wandy Peralta (3.00 ERA), Suarez (3.27), and rookie David Morgan (1.78 ERA).

Still, the addition of Miller is massive, both for this year and years to come. His 3.55 season ERA may not exactly be what you want to see out of a high-leverage reliever, but his underlying stats paint a drastically different story.

Miller grades out in the 100th percentile in whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and fastball velocity. He throws his fastball 101.2 mph on average and pairs it with a filthy slider in the mid-to-high 80s. 

While the fastball has gotten hit around as of late, Miller’s breaking ball run value ranks in the 97th percentile this season. He also places in the 93rd percentile or better in xERA, xBA, and chase percentage. This has allowed him to pitch to a 2.45 ERA over his first seven appearances with San Diego.

If Miller can find his stride while the rest of the Padres’ bullpen continues to perform, they would enter the postseason with a significant advantage in close games.

Starting Five (Give or Take a Few)

The Padres’ rotation has seen its fair share of ups and downs this season. 

They have spent much of the year without Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Michael King. Though Darvish has rejoined the team, he has posted a 5.97 ERA over his first eight starts, and King has only made 11 starts all year.

However, the Padres have still put together a solid group in their absence. Among them, the most impressive player has been newcomer Nick Pivetta. Since signing a four-year, $55 million contract with the Padres this offseason, Pivetta has been phenomenal.

In 141.1 innings, he has pitched to a 2.87 ERA and struck out 144 batters. He holds a 149 ERA+ on the year and leads his pitching staff with 3.3 fWAR.

Just behind him, Dylan Cease has put up 2.6 fWAR in his 25 starts. While he has not looked his best at times, Cease has made every start and still struck out 171 batters over 132.2 innings. Looking past his 4.61 ERA, his 3.54 FIP and 3.49 xFIP are far more reassuring.

Randy Vásquez has held his own as a starter as well, pitching to a 3.96 ERA over 111.1 innings. Outside of those three, the Padres have gotten decent mileage out of arms like Kyle Hart and, more recently, the newly acquired Nestor Cortes. 

While their rotation may not be exactly what the Padres envisioned to start the year, it has been solid. Their starters have accrued the 14th most fWAR in MLB by starting pitchers, despite ranking 20th in innings pitched.

Anything can happen in the postseason. The Padres will need their starters to take a step forward in October, but they’ve held their own thus far. 

Besides, in a short playoff series, the Padres would still be able to pencil in Pivetta, Cease, and Darvish to make meaningful starts. If King can find his way back to the mound, he will make the rotation all the more formidable.

Slam Diego

The Padres’ lineup has long been considered amongst the best in MLB. They have continued this trend throughout 2025, as seven of their everyday players have posted a 100 OPS+ or better.

Cornerstone players Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have continued to lead the way for the Padres, carrying a 128 OPS+ and 122 OPS+, respectively. Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth have all been key contributors as well.

Another positive has been Luis Arráez, who continues to put the ball in play at an elite rate. He has struck out just 15 times in 517 plate appearances. He also ranks in the 100th percentile in squared-up percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage.

On top of these standout performances, the Padres made a big upgrade offensively before the trade deadline.

They swung two key trades to bolster their lineup. First, they traded for Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals. Later that day, they acquired both Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn from the Baltimore Orioles.

Fermin has been a particularly welcome addition to the crew. In 13 games as a Padre, Fermin has hit .318/.348/.409 with a 117 wRC+, while providing solid defense behind the plate. 

Prior to this trade on July 31, the Padres ranked 29th in catcher fWAR across MLB. Their catchers ranked 28th in wRC+, batting just .203/.259/.315 as a group. They ranked 27th for both batting average and slugging percentage and dead last at 30th for on-base percentage.

Since the trade, however, Padres catchers have been top 10 in wRC+, batting average, and on-base percentage. Fermin has been a massive part of that, catching in 13 of 18 games during that time.

Their second trade for Laureano and O’Hearn has arguably been even more impactful. Though O’Hearn hasn’t played his best, he’s still provided defensive utility while hitting for an above-average 108 wRC+.

As for Laureano, he has kicked off his time with the Padres in grand fashion. Over his first 16 games in San Diego, Laureano has hit .317/.379/.633 with four home runs and 12 RBIs. He has served as a sparkplug for the Padres’ offense over these past few weeks and will play a critical role in the weeks to come.

Sprint to the Finish

The various core components of this team blend together to form a complete, imposing roster. On paper, this team has more than enough to march its way to the World Series this October.

However, the road to the playoffs will not be an easy one.

For starters, the Padres will have to keep or improve their pace down the stretch. They’re solidly in Wild Card contention, but both the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets could find their way ahead of the Padres with a hot streak.

The Padres will certainly look to overtake the Dodgers atop the NL West as well. While the Dodgers have started to play a bit better, the Padres will have a chance to halt their momentum in their final matchup of the year this weekend.

Assuming the Padres keep their postseason spot, they will have a number of formidable potential foes in October. Most apparent of these is the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been utterly dominant this summer and hold MLB’s best record at 79-47.

Any one of the Phillies, Dodgers, and Cubs would also make for a tough matchup in a short series. Despite this, there is a real argument that the Padres would come out on top against any of those teams.

These arguments are far from a guarantee that the Padres will make a World Series run. That said, the Padres stack up well against any of the potential contenders in the American League as well.

As the final stretch of the season approaches, the Padres will still have plenty of opportunities to establish themselves as the team to beat. If they succeed, they can look to carry that momentum into October and bring the Commissioner’s Trophy to San Diego for the very first time.