Can the Orioles’ Youth Elevate This Team Down the Stretch?

We are officially in the dog days of summer. Wins are becoming harder and harder to come by. Teams are racking up injuries and fatigue is starting to set in.

The next five weeks are going to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The Baltimore Orioles, specifically, will have to rely on their youth to carry them through this stretch and potentially further.

The Orioles have really felt the effects of the 162-game slog, and it is starting to take its toll. Prior to the All-Star break, the Orioles were 58-38 with a one-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Since then, they are 18-18, although they are still just 1.5 games back of first place in the AL East.

If the Orioles want to out-pace the Yankees to the finish line, they are going to need more players to step up. Specifically, their younger players are going to have to pick up the slack and perform down the stretch. Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Cade Povich, and Colton Cowser are all going to be vital.

The Orioles’ Young Bats

Jackson Holliday’s struggles in his first stint with the MLB club were fairly well documented. He only hit .059 while striking out 50% of the time.

The top prospect returned to the big leagues on July 31 and got off to a rip-roaring start, putting up a .940 OPS and 163 wRC+ over his first 15 games. He has cooled down as of late, but he still has a respectable .715 OPS and 101 wRC+ since his return. His 29.2% strikeout rate is a huge improvement.

This turnaround has come just in time for the Orioles, who needed his offensive production. Lately, the Orioles have experienced slumps from some of their biggest first-half contributors.

Gunnar Henderson has gone from a .956 OPS to an .797 OPS in the second half. Adley Rutschman has really struggled, posting a .628 OPS in the second half thus far.

The Orioles’ stars’ struggles have made Holliday that much more important entering this final stretch of the season. His performance could play a large role in determining where the Orioles find themselves in the playoff standings at the end of the season.

Another player who could play a huge role is Coby Mayo. He was not given much of a runway during his first stint in Baltimore, taking just 20 plate appearances in seven games before being sent back down to Triple-A Norfolk.

Those seven games were ugly, as Mayo had only one hit, 10 strikeouts, and accumulated -0.4 fWAR.

Since returning to Triple-A, Mayo is 6-for-21 with a home run and five RBIs. It is likely that he will earn a September call-up and will have a chance to prove himself as an able contributor.

With all of the pitching injuries that the Orioles have suffered, they are going to have to win games with offense. That makes players like Holliday and Mayo incredibly important.

The Orioles’ Young Arms

The Orioles have suffered a plethora of pitching injuries this year. They currently have eight pitchers on the injured list: Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin, John Means, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Félix Bautista, Danny Coulombe, and Jacob Webb.

That is five starters and three high-leverage arms. Those arms could be a top-ten pitching staff by themselves if healthy.

Who slots in to help replace those arms? The first name that comes to mind is Cade Povich.

Povich has had a very hot and cold start to his major league career. Over ten starts, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of them. In the three other starts, he has allowed six, eight, and five earned runs. In the start with eight earned runs, he only lasted an inning.

Despite a couple of blowup starts, he has shown flashes of brilliance. His Achilles heel is his command. He has made five starts this season with fewer than two walks and five starts with three or more.

In the starts with two walks or fewer, he has thrown 28 innings with a 3.86 ERA. In the other five starts, he has thrown 20.2 innings with a 9.35 ERA. He is a completely different pitcher when he is not walking batters.

In his last two starts, Povich has been much more aggressive in and around the zone, issuing just two walks and striking out nine in 11.1 innings pitched. This version of Povich is who the Orioles need to fill the void until more of their arms are healthy again.

A Potential September Call-Up

Another arm that could help the Orioles and should be a September call-up is Chayce McDermott. As stated earlier, the Orioles have three high-leverage relievers on the shelf and could really use another option out of the bullpen. McDermott can be that option.

As a starter in Triple-A, he has thrown to a 3.90 ERA in 97 innings. The number that should intrigue the Orioles, however, is his 12.90 strikeouts per nine. His stuff would play great in the back of Baltimore’s bullpen.

McDermott uses a four-pitch mix, though he would likely focus primarily on his fastball and slider in the bullpen. They both grade as plus pitches that should hopefully play up even more in a bullpen role.

The one hiccup for McDermott is a recent scapula injury.

He has not pitched since July 30, when he went down. The Orioles have not provided a detailed timeline, but he was set to miss a handful of weeks. He could be back in time for a September call-up, but the O’s could also exercise caution with their pitching prospect.

The AL ROY

Colton Cowser has all but solidified himself as the AL Rookie of the Year with his second-half performance thus far. He is hitting .298/.355/.504 with a 143 wRC+ in the second half. He also has seven home runs in just 36 games compared to 12 homers in 85 games in the first half.

His performance has really helped the Orioles stomach what Adley Rutschman has been producing since July. Prior to July 1, Rutschman had a 133 wRC+ and a batting average of .294. Cowser, in that same time span, played well but with a 112 wRC+ and a .233 batting average.

Since July 1, there has been a stark contrast in their performances. In 163 plate appearances, Rutschman is hitting just .190 with a 64 wRC+. Cowser, on the other hand, has stepped up in an effort to pick up some of the slack and is hitting .280 with a 128 wRC+.

The reason I bring Rutschman up is that the Orioles do not win when he is playing poorly. If he is going to continue to play at this level, it makes the performances of someone like Cowser that much more important.

The power has really ticked up for Cowser in the second half. He is pulling the ball more consistently than he was in the first half, and as a result, he is seeing more balls fly out of the yard. He is really going to need to keep this up because the Orioles cannot afford for both him and Rutschman to slip.

The Orioles have a tough road ahead of them. They are 18-18 since the All-Star break despite being the second-best team in the American League before then. The Twins and Royals are hot on their tails in the Wild Card race.

The Orioles could see themselves go from potential AL East winners to the final Wild Card team if their young players do not step up.