Max Scherzer’s IL Trip Leaves the Blue Jays in a Precarious Situation

When the Toronto Blue Jays went out and signed Max Scherzer this offseason, he was brought in to address a variety of issues for a ball club coming off a disappointing 74-win campaign in 2024.

One key element his addition brought to Toronto was a type of award-winning pedigree this rotation has been starved of for a long time. Scherzer is a two-time World Series champion, three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star.

From a more practical standpoint, though, Scherzer would add a traditionally reliable top-end performer to this staff.

Since becoming a full-time starter, Scherzer recorded the most innings pitched (2822.0) in the majors in the 16-season span from 2009-24.

Then, looking at the 12-year span dating back to his first All-Star and Cy Young campaign in 2013, amongst starters with at least 800.0 innings pitched, he ranked within the top ten in ERA (3rd at 2.88), FIP (4th at 2.97), WHIP (T-2nd at 0.99), BAA (T-1st at .205) and K/9 (3rd at 11.19).

With great early returns in spring training — the 40-year-old threw to a 1.38 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 0.46 WHIP, .111 BAA with 12.46 K/9 and 0.69 BB/9 across four starts —hopes were high in The Six for a high-profile arm that could play a leading role in 2025.

Suddenly, however, reality has reared its ugly head, as the Blue Jays are seeing shades of 2024 with their new veteran. Lingering injuries have set in early for Scherzer.

After just three innings of work in his Blue Jays debut on Saturday, Scherzer was pulled due to what Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported was a right lat injury.

When speaking to media after the game, Scherzer confirmed this was an issue he felt stemmed from the lingering thumb issue he endured during the spring.

“This is 100% related to the thumb,” he said.

"This is 100% related to the thumb."

Max Scherzer says the lat soreness he is experiencing is associated with his thumb injury. pic.twitter.com/YwCeTnOJQG

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 29, 2025

The organization eventually placed him on the 15-day IL with right thumb inflammation.

Now, injuries happen to just about everyone, but what makes this scenario concerning is that it seems to be another chapter in what’s been a series of nagging injuries for Scherzer over the last year now.

Last season in Texas, he landed on the IL three separate times for three separate injuries. He started the season on the IL while rehabbing from back surgery. Then, after making his return in late June, he landed back on the shelf in early August with right shoulder fatigue.

After just a week-long return to the mound in mid-September, it was back to the IL, this time with a hamstring strain.

Following such a streak of constant reliability before 2024, injuries are becoming a trend and could very well be the new norm for the aging star.

If that’s the case, then suddenly the Blue Jays rotation is in a difficult spot, which would cause severe setbacks in their pursuit of bringing competitive baseball north of the border once again.

Stats and rankings from prior to first pitch on April 1.

Scherzer Was a Luxury Insurance Option for the Rest of the Rotation

I want to preface, the Blue Jays’ rotation wasn’t half bad in 2024 despite the team’s overall down year, especially when compared to their struggling offense and putrid bullpen.

Their staff sat middle of the pack in ERA (T-14th at 3.95), WHIP (T-11th at 1.23), BAA (T-10th at .239), K/9 (T-13th at 8.48) and BB/9 (T-15th a 2.87).

However, some issues stemmed from how shallow their rotation ran in 2024. Only José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi eclipsed 100.0 innings, and Kikuchi ended up being dealt at the deadline.

While he was essentially replaced by the late season rise of Bowden Francis, the Jays were virtually left shorthanded, never really having a proper five-man rotation to rely on at any point last season.

The arrival of Scherzer gave them that proper fifth option for 2025, but now that he’s shelved for the foreseeable future, his absence leaves the starting staff a lot more vulnerable to each member’s limitations.

Although Gausman made 31 starts in 2024, he was seemingly plagued by shoulder fatigue from the spring, leaving him to play catch-up as the season progressed, as per Sportsnet’s David Singh.

While he seems to be in a better place this season, if injury or fatigue is to set in for the Blue Jays’ ace, who’s now in his mid-30s, there’s now less to fall back on to pick up the slack in the rotation.

Berríos has bounced back well since his nightmare 2022 campaign, in which he threw to a 5.23 ERA, posting back-to-back mid-3.00 ERA campaigns in ’23 and ’24.

However, knowing that that 2022 arm has existed recently makes his Opening Day blow-up this season, where he gave up six earned runs on nine hits, look a little more nerve-inducing than it probably should. If he were to regress from his recent rebound seasons, again the rotation now lacks that surface-level depth to account for such a situation.

Then there’s Bassitt, who besides being a 170+ inning workhorse, was nothing spectacular last season, with an ERA over 4.00, a WHIP above 1.45 and a BAA just shy of .270.

When he’s able to be more of a bottom-end arm, like he was slated to be when the season began, those numbers are more acceptable. However, the further he’s forced to creep into the middle and upper portions of this rotation, the less appealing he becomes.

Then there’s Francis, who was other-worldly in the final two months of the 2024 season, posting a 1.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP and .121 BAA across nine starts in August and September.

This was just a two-month sample-size, though, and we can’t forget the 5.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .275 BAA arm he was when he was spot starting, coming out of the ‘pen, and moving between Toronto and Triple-A Buffalo.

The odds of Francis putting up his mind-boggling late-season numbers over a full 30+ start campaign are unlikely, and if he looks closer to the old Francis than the new one, a Scherzer-type arm to pick up the slack makes all the difference in the world.

The Depth Beyond the Starting Staff Is Bleak

The fact that the Blue Jays couldn’t even make it to April before their pitching depth was tested is nothing short of terrible news.

Despite the questions surrounding each member of the top four in this staff, they still have those roles covered to a suitable big league standard.

However, when it comes to addressing the five spot in the rotation in Scherzer’s absence, that’s where things get dicey, as the depth between the long-men in the major league bullpen and the starters in Triple-A is not the strongest.

Looking at what the Blue Jays have at the major league level, the first name that comes to mind is Yariel Rodríguez.

The 28-year-old righty is coming off a lackluster rookie campaign in 2024, where in 86.2 innings across 21 starts, he threw to a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. And in 2025, things have already gotten off to a shaky start. He got blown up in his one inning outing on Opening Day, surrendering three earned runs off two homers.

Then we move to the minor-league depth arms, starting with the recently promoted Easton Lucas. The 28-year-old lefty looks slated to make at least a spot start sometime this week, as per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson.

Despite holding a 2.75 ERA across three Triple-A stops in 2024, Lucas has yet to translate that to the major league level, with a 10.80 ERA split between the Jays, Tigers and Athletics in 2024 and a career big league ERA of 9.82.

Another name that could come into the fold is veteran Eric Lauer. The southpaw has made his return stateside after spending 2024 in the KBO, but a 4.93 ERA across seven starts in Korea, to pair with the 6.56 ERA he posted in his most recent MLB season in Milwaukee in 2023, isn’t exactly the most comforting option to fall back on.

Then there’s Jake Bloss, who offers some solid prospect pedigree but struggled in his brief stint in the majors with Houston last season. Then, after being traded to Toronto at the trade deadline last summer in the Kikuchi deal, he proved he still needed to gain some polish at the Triple-A level before getting another shot in the bigs, posting a 6.91 ERA across eight starts in Buffalo.

And the bullpen still has plenty of holes in it after a horrendous 2024 season. They sported the MLB’s lowest fWAR at -2.5 and sat in the bottom five in ERA (29th at 4.82) and FIP (30th at 4.84), making potential bullpen days a less than ideal option for manager John Schneider and co.

The Uncertainty Surrounding Scherzer Will Loom All Season

According to Hazel Mae, Scherzer won’t make another start until his thumb is back at 100%.

We’ve discussed how the absence of Scherzer will plague this team. Even when he makes his return, the thought of another ailment hitting the veteran will surely be in the backs of the Blue Jays’ minds.

Just look at 2024 again. It was a constant flip between the active roster and the injured list with completely new injuries each time.

If it’s not today’s thumb issue, it could easily be something else tomorrow, as the once reliable “iron-man” type arm looks more and more fragile as he progresses through the later stages of his career.

While Scherzer’s signing was a good-looking one at the time, there were certainly risks to it. And sadly for the Blue Jays, those risks have become a reality… and a lot sooner than anticipated.