Could the Dodgers Swing a Two-Star Blockbuster Like 2021?

No team entered the 2024 season with higher expectations than the Los Angeles Dodgers. And all eyes will once again be on the franchise this July as they gear up to be big buyers at the trade deadline.

But while their championship aspirations are well-documented, what we don’t know is how aggressively the Dodgers will approach the upcoming deadline. But perhaps their own (bold) strategy from 2021 can serve as a blueprint for the 2024 squad.

Let’s reflect on a blockbuster trade that shook the baseball world and whether Los Angeles is primed to pull off something similar this season.

A brief retrospective on the Dodgers’ trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in 2021

The date was July 30. The two teams involved were the Dodgers and Washington Nationals.

Here were the full terms of the six-player trade:

Dodgers received: RHP Max Scherzer, SS Trea Turner
Nationals received: C Keibert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, OF Donovan Casey

Before we apply hindsight in evaluating this deal, let’s put it in the context of when it was executed.

In exchange for half a season of the Hall-of-Famer Scherzer and a season and a half of Trea Turner in Dodger blue, Los Angeles had to surrender its then-top prospect in catcher Keibert Ruiz and No. 2 prospect in Josiah Gray to Washington. That was undoubtedly a steep price to have paid, even when considering the talent moving.

Looking back on it now, however, it appears that neither team won this trade.

First, while Scherzer was great down the stretch in 2021 for the Dodgers (1.98 ERA in 11 starts), he infamously suffered from “arm fatigue” during that season’s National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves, which certainly factored into Los Angeles’ stunning playoff defeat. He then left for the New York Mets in 2022.

As for Trea Turner, he also produced at a high level while with the Dodgers, but their inability to re-sign him after the 2022 season (following another early playoff defeat) officially closed the book on their side of the trade with the Nationals.

Washington hasn’t really fared much better. First, Keibert Ruiz hasn’t lived up to his top prospect billing since debuting with the Nationals in 2021. This is especially true of his performance at the dish, where he sports a career 87 wRC+, a well-below league-average mark (100 is league-average). So although Ruiz impacted the big league roster basically right after being traded (a rarity for a prospect in a mid-season deal), he hasn’t accounted for much meaningful production since.

On the flip side, Josiah Gray was an All-Star for the Nationals last season, but even he’s been below average on the mound since he was traded east (career 4.80 ERA, 5.45 FIP in Washington) and is currently sidelined with an arm injury.

Finally, regarding the other two prospects in the trade, Gerardo Carrillo no longer plays in the Nationals’ organization, while Donovan Casey plays in the Atlantic League.

Safe to say they didn’t pan out.

Can the Dodgers pull off a similar blockbuster this season?

If the opportunity presents itself as it did back in 2021 with Scherzer and Turner, one would have to believe Los Angeles is ready to make another earth-shattering move at this July’s trade deadline.

We’ve already seen the Dodgers linked to big names including Detroit Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal, with the team reportedly ready to assemble a package of top prospects to get a deal done.

They’ve also held similar discussions with the Chicago White Sox regarding left-hander Garrett Crochet as well as outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tommy Pham. So the impetus appears to be on the table: Pull off a major trade this summer and gear up for another championship run.

One team that could make a lot of sense as a potential trade partner, if they decide to sell off? The Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays and Dodgers match up well as potential trade partners

The Blue Jays have two players at positions the Dodgers so desperately need: shortstop and starting pitcher. That means we’re talking Bo Bichette and one of Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman or Yusei Kikuchi.

For the record, Toronto has made it clear (as of now) that they’d like to run it back in 2025, but they should at least be open to selling after a first half of 2024 that fell below expectations (9.5 games back of the third American League Wild Card spot at the All-Star break).

It might be difficult for the Blue Jays to trade Bichette at this juncture given his woeful 69 wRC+ at the plate. However, a change of scenery and a pennant race could rejuvenate the veteran shortstop, who has one more season left on a three-year deal he signed prior to last season.

Think of Bichette as the Trea Turner in this example. And think of one of the veterans listed above as Max Scherzer. The comparisons aren’t exact one to ones (Turner and Scherzer were better players at the time of that trade), but they’re similar enough for this exercise.

Toronto doesn’t have a ton of exciting prospects in the minor leagues after left-hander Ricky Tiedemann and the currently-suspended Orelvis Martinez, so they could stand to benefit from plundering the Dodger’s perennially strong farm system, which includes top prospect outfielder Josue De Paula (Just Baseball’s No. 1 Dodgers prospect), catcher Dalton Rushing (No. 2) and right-hander River Ryan (No. 5).

Los Angeles also has current big leaguers Andy Pages (outfielder) and Gavin Stone (right-hander) from Just Baseball’s top Dodgers prospects entering the season, although it’s highly unlikely the Dodgers would trade Stone given their current lack of depth at starting pitcher.

Still, Pages and his 101 wRC+ at 23 years old might be an example of a player the Blue Jays could target in a potential deal.

And based on the Dodgers’ reported willingness to swing big on a package for Tarik Skubal, there’s no reason why they couldn’t make a similarly substantial offer to Toronto if the Blue Jays decide to sell.

Ultimately, Los Angeles shouldn’t (and won’t) be deterred from going big, because as the Nationals learned in 2021 with their return for Scherzer and Turner, prospect packages are largely a crapshoot.

Conclusion

The Dodgers are always a force to be reckoned with, whether on the diamond or in the front office.

Prospect capital won’t stand in the way of massive upgrades, as we’ve seen time and time again. And Los Angeles appears ready to go big or go home once more in 2024.

Why wouldn’t they, with the best player in the world in Shohei Ohtani, now on their side?

In fact, if there was ever a season for Los Angeles to revisit their two-star blockbuster trade from 2021, this would seem to be the one. The pressure has never been higher to win and they’ve got the guts and the resources to pull something off.

For now, we’ll have to just wait and see.