Jeff Hoffman Has Been Much Better Beneath the Surface
Newly acquired by the Minnesota Twins, former All-Star closer Jeff Hoffman has some of the best underlying metrics in baseball.
The crowd stood on its feet, eagerly awaiting the pitch to Miguel Rojas. The pesky contact hitter had worked a 3-2 count, one of his best at-bats all season. With one out in the top half of the ninth, Toronto faithful desperately hoped their Blue Jays would be able to hold on to their 4-3 lead in Game 7 of the 2025 World Series.
John Schneider had placed his faith in the team’s closing pitcher, Jeff Hoffman, to seal the victory over the juggernaut Dodgers. The crowd behind home plate peered toward Hoffman, their faces full of nervous hope as he came set.
He set in motion, delivering a slider that hung over the middle of the zone, which was subsequently smoked right over the Blue Jays’ bullpen in left field. From that moment on, a distaste grew within Toronto’s fanbase toward Hoffman, and it only continued to fester this season.
This year, Hoffman finds himself in the midst of a disappointing season, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. With his failure to close out last year’s World Series, Hoffman’s struggles were only magnified by a frustrated Blue Jays fanbase. The scrutiny has been worse, given that the Blue Jays’ season as a whole has been one of the most disappointing in MLB.
On the surface, there appeared to be some merit to the abundance of criticism Hoffman faced during his time in Toronto this season, but his underlying metrics are some of the best among relievers in baseball. A closer look reveals that Hoffman’s season marks have been skewed by a few blow-up outings, and that he’s mostly been performing like his old self.
Furthermore, almost every indicator of success points to Hoffman’s performance being the result of poor luck, and forecasts that the former All-Star closer could be close to elite the rest of this season.
His underlying data is part of why the Minnesota Twins dealt for Hoffman on deadline day, believing he could play a pivotal part in their bullpen as they make a playoff push.
Let’s dive into how much better Hoffman has been beneath the surface, and what we can expect from him the rest of the way in 2026.
On the Surface
A former first-round pick back in 2014, Hoffman has been no stranger to adversity throughout his career. He only became a full-time relief pitcher in 2022, while still with the Reds, after he’d failed to record a 4.00 ERA or lower in any of his six seasons as a starting pitcher.
The 33-year-old began the 2026 season on a similar sour note, recording a 6.39 ERA and several blown saves this April, which ultimately resulted in Louie Varland moving into the closer role. His struggles continued through May, but the right-hander has since turned over a new leaf and has looked unstoppable since June 1.
In 22.1 innings pitched with the Blue Jays since that date, the right-hander allowed just three earned runs to score, resulting in a 1.22 ERA in that span. In his first four outings with Minnesota, he’s allowed just two hits. Both came during an August 7 outing, and while they ultimately resulted in the loss for Hoffman, neither qualified as hard-hit batted-ball events.
Even during his poor start to the season, most of Hoffman’s earned runs allowed (nine, to be exact) came during two appearances, which accounted for nearly half of his total earned runs allowed this season.
For a reliever, any blow-up outing can dramatically increase ERA, much less two. Despite those appearances, Hoffman has managed a 3.81 ERA, a 2.75 xFIP, and 1.2 fWAR through 52 innings this season.
Yet, fans are still flocking to the internet to ridicule his capabilities as a pitcher.
If Hoffman’s improved season line wasn’t convincing enough already, let’s take a look at his underlying data and see why the right-hander has been much better than you’d think, given the discourse surrounding his performance.
Beneath the Hood
If there’s one thing Hoffman particularly excels at, it’s striking hitters out. He’s already racked up 81 strikeouts this year, resulting in an absurd 34.6% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile.
Hoffman’s strikeout numbers stem from his ability to generate whiffs at a high rate — on 37.7% of swings, to be exact. He ranks in the 99th percentile in that regard, as well as in the 97th percentile in chase rate (37.7% of pitches outside of the zone).
He’s paired his strikeout dominance with a 9.4% walk rate, leading to a 25.2% K-BB%. If you aren’t familiar already, K-BB% is one of the most predictive metrics of pitcher success; Hoffman ranks ninth among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in 2026.
Hoffman also ranks seventh in SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average) with a 2.56 mark, trailing names like Mason Miller, Jacob Misiorowski, and Louie Varland. In short, when it comes to things Hoffman can control, he’s been among the best in the sport.
Just like K-BB%, SIERA is one of the most predictive metrics that can be used when evaluating pitchers. Both conclude that Hoffman’s process this season has been elite, which should lead to a high level of success the rest of the way in 2026.
Outlook
However surprising it may be, 2026 is arguably Hoffman’s best season to date.
The right-hander’s 2.75 xFIP is the best mark of his career, and he only seems to be in danger of positive regression given his underlying profile. His arsenal looks just as dominant as it has in years past, leaving little area for concern regarding the reliever’s outlook this year and beyond.
Hoffman’s slider is just as effective as ever, limiting opponents to a .256 xwOBA. His splitter has been nearly as good, with opposing hitters held to a .267 xwOBA against the offering. While Hoffman’s four-seamer and sinker haven’t fared nearly as well, that trend has continued since 2021 and is nothing out of the ordinary.
As he’s under control through the 2027 season, Hoffman isn’t just a rental for the Twins, who sit half a game back of the final AL Wild Card spot.
Hoffman’s elite process will aid the Twins in the coming months, and if they make it to October, he could be one of the most dominant relievers any postseason team will have the displeasure of running into.
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Written by
Mason Linken first began writing about baseball after founding FBC Reports, and contributing to SABR's book "Henry Aaron". At Just Baseball, Mason is responsible for covering…