The Free Agent Market Is Moving Slowly for Top Relievers
The top free agent relievers haven't been signing as quickly as the top starters and position players. What's up with that?
The top free agent bat is off the board. So are two of the top three starting pitchers. (Update: Let’s make that all three of the top starting pitchers.)
As for relievers? It’s a different story.
The Yankees made the biggest bullpen acquisition of the offseason, but it was a trade; they landed All-Star closer Devin Williams from the Brewers.
The Mets signed an All-Star closer of their own, Clay Holmes, but they plan to use him as a starting pitcher.
Thus, all six of the top free agent relievers, by 2024 FanGraphs WAR, remain unsigned: Jeff Hoffman, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, and Carlos Estévez.
More top arms remaining on the market include Chris Martin, José Leclerc, A.J. Minter, Paul Sewald, Danny Coulombe, Andrew Kittredge, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Chafin, Scott Barlow, and Craig Kimbrel.
Meanwhile, the only notable free agent relievers who have signed new deals include Blake Treinen, Aroldis Chapman, Yimi García, Jordan Romano, and Jonathan Loáisiga. Only Treinen and García signed multi-year pacts.
Why Haven’t More of the Top Relievers Signed Yet?
Why might the free agent market be dragging for top-end relievers? That’s a difficult question. After all, the market for everyone else is moving quite well.
Thirteen starting pitchers have signed multi-year deals. Sixteen have signed for at least $15 million. Many have signed for more guaranteed money than most of us expected.
It’s not as if there aren’t plenty of teams that could use bullpen upgrades. Furthermore, it’s not as if everyone is just waiting around for someone else to set the market.
Treinen’s two-year, $22 million deal and Chapman’s one-year, $10.75 million pact should have done a pretty good job of that.
So what gives?
Are teams prioritizing their rotations before addressing their bullpen needs? Perhaps.
That’s certainly true of the Mets. They have already signed Holmes, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning but haven’t made any major additions to the arm barn. One has to presume they’ll bolster the bullpen eventually.
Are some of the typical big spenders staying away from the top of the relief market? Maybe.
The Phillies went with Romano as their big bullpen addition instead of trying to re-sign Hoffman or pursue Scott. Meanwhile, the Yankees got their new closer in a trade.
Are contending teams with limited resources shying away from expensive bullpen arms? That could be another piece of the puzzle.
The Padres lost Scott, but as they try to cut payroll, they’re probably going to stick with the closer they already have at home: Robert Suarez.
The D-backs might be in a similar boat, happy to stick with studs like Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel to hold down the ninth – especially after breaking the bank to sign Corbin Burnes.
The Rangers are thought to be interested in re-signing Yates, but they’ve already made several smaller additions to the bullpen, and their payroll is getting close to the first luxury tax threshold.
All of these teams could choose to go with cheaper depth over top-end talent.
When Are All of the Top Free Agent Relievers Going to Sign?
This is the million dollar question: Is the reliever market going to heat up soon? Or are this year’s top bullpen arms in for a long wait?
Guys like Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman are going to get paid no matter what. But I do wonder if some arms in the next tier down will have to settle for significantly less guaranteed money than they were hoping for.
Teams have been willing to spend big on pitching this winter, no doubt about it. Yet, a strong market for starters doesn’t necessarily mean a strong market for relievers. In fact, the opposite might be true.
If front offices around the league continue to put more and more of their offseason budgets toward starting pitchers, that leaves less to go around for everyone else.
For now, all we can do is wait, watch, and hope that our favorite teams make the moves we’re hoping for.
Top Free Agent Relievers Left on the Market
2024 Stats
| Pitcher | G | IP | SV | HLD | K% | BB% | ERA | xERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | 68 | 66.1 | 10 | 21 | 33.6% | 6.0% | 2.17 | 2.83 | 2.0 |
| Kirby Yates | 61 | 61.2 | 33 | 2 | 35.9% | 11.8% | 1.17 | 1.81 | 1.9 |
| David Robertson | 68 | 72.0 | 2 | 34 | 33.4% | 9.1% | 3.00 | 3.22 | 1.9 |
| Tanner Scott | 72 | 72.0 | 22 | 11 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 1.75 | 2.92 | 1.6 |
| Kenley Jansen | 54 | 54.2 | 27 | 0 | 28.4% | 9.2% | 3.29 | 3.29 | 1.4 |
| Carlos Estévez | 54 | 55.0 | 26 | 0 | 23.6% | 5.7% | 2.45 | 3.24 | 1.2 |
| Chris Martin | 45 | 44.1 | 2 | 15 | 27.8% | 1.7% | 3.45 | 3.29 | 0.9 |
| José Leclerc | 64 | 66.2 | 1 | 13 | 30.9% | 11.1% | 4.32 | 3.57 | 0.8 |
| Danny Coulombe | 33 | 29.2 | 1 | 13 | 29.9% | 4.7% | 2.12 | 2.88 | 0.5 |
| Adam Ottavino | 60 | 56.0 | 1 | 15 | 28.6% | 9.4% | 4.34 | 3.13 | 0.5 |
| Andrew Chafin | 62 | 56.1 | 1 | 12 | 28.5% | 12.6% | 3.51 | 3.59 | 0.4 |
| Paul Sewald | 42 | 39.2 | 16 | 1 | 26.1% | 6.1% | 4.31 | 3.78 | 0.3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | 74 | 70.2 | 1 | 37 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 2.80 | 4.05 | 0.3 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 57 | 52.1 | 23 | 4 | 31.5% | 13.4% | 5.33 | 4.22 | 0.1 |
| Tommy Kahnle | 50 | 42.2 | 1 | 16 | 25.7% | 10.6% | 2.11 | 3.20 | 0.1 |
| Scott Barlow | 63 | 55.0 | 2 | 19 | 28.2% | 12.9% | 4.25 | 4.08 | 0.0 |
| A.J. Minter | 39 | 34.1 | 1 | 9 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 2.62 | 3.29 | -0.1 |
Last Three Years (2022-24)
| Pitcher | G | IP | SV | HLD | K% | BB% | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 213 | 212.2 | 54 | 39 | 31.2% | 11.9% | 2.71 | 4.9 |
| Chris Martin | 160 | 151.2 | 7 | 47 | 28.1% | 2.6% | 2.49 | 4.0 |
| David Robertson | 188 | 201.0 | 40 | 47 | 31.1% | 10.5% | 2.82 | 3.8 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 157 | 163.1 | 11 | 33 | 30.3% | 8.7% | 2.70 | 3.8 |
| Kenley Jansen | 170 | 163.1 | 97 | 0 | 29.9% | 8.9% | 3.42 | 3.6 |
| A.J. Minter | 184 | 169.0 | 16 | 64 | 31.7% | 7.1% | 2.82 | 3.4 |
| Carlos Estévez | 179 | 174.1 | 59 | 15 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 3.30 | 2.4 |
| José Leclerc | 160 | 171.1 | 12 | 25 | 29.2% | 11.3% | 3.36 | 2.3 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 191 | 181.1 | 68 | 13 | 31.0% | 11.3% | 4.02 | 2.1 |
| Scott Barlow | 195 | 197.1 | 39 | 32 | 27.0% | 10.5% | 3.51 | 2.0 |
| Danny Coulombe | 104 | 93.1 | 3 | 34 | 26.8% | 7.0% | 2.41 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Chafin | 189 | 165.0 | 12 | 45 | 28.1% | 10.9% | 3.65 | 1.8 |
| Paul Sewald | 172 | 164.1 | 70 | 9 | 29.7% | 7.8% | 3.23 | 1.6 |
| Kirby Yates | 131 | 129.0 | 38 | 13 | 32.6% | 13.4% | 2.37 | 1.6 |
| Adam Ottavino | 192 | 183.1 | 16 | 45 | 27.6% | 8.9% | 3.14 | 1.5 |
| Tommy Kahnle | 105 | 96.0 | 4 | 31 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 2.44 | 0.3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | 105 | 102.1 | 7 | 38 | 22.1% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 0.3 |
Written by
Leo Morgenstern is an editor for Just Baseball and a writer for FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Pitcher…