How Will Hurricane Helene Impact the NL Wild Card?

Last night was supposed to be Game 2 of a thrilling series between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, with both of their playoff fates hanging in the balance. Unfortunately a hurricane had other plans, as MLB had to postpone the remainder of the series due to an onslaught of rain.

We talked about this as a possibility yesterday, in an article you can still read below today’s update, but now that hypothetical has become a reality. The Braves and Mets cannot resume their series until Monday, the day after the regular season is supposed to conclude.

Since there are two games left in the series, these teams might be forced to play a doubleheader, with the victor then heading off to start a Wild Card Series the very next day.

What led to this decision and how will this impact the remainder of the NL Wild Card race?

Let us break it all down for you.

Why MLB is in This Situation

From the exclusive reporting done by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, we learned that Major League Baseball never broached any contingency plans due to the inclement weather, and ultimately left the decision on how to handle the hurricane to the home team.

According to Sherman’s reporting, the Braves were given full autonomy to make this decision by Major League Baseball, which has led to a logistical nightmare for everyone involved.

“For reasons of business, logistics and perhaps gamesmanship, the Braves did not want to shift start times, days or locations for their series against the Mets despite forecasts that made it iffy to play Wednesday night and even less likely to play a three-game series finale Thursday night.”

Sherman continues to explain that MLB could have overruled the Braves decision but chose not to.

Now this is not to say the Braves wanted a rainout. Instead, they just did not want to forfeit their home-field advantage in games that could very well define their season. Moving to a neutral site would have put the Braves at a disadvantage compared to what was left on their schedule, which was one last homestand to end the year.

While having to postpone these games puts the Braves in a bad spot if they make the playoffs, an argument can be made that this was still their best course of action to get there.

Atlanta gets to stay home through this entire ordeal, while the Mets are forced to arrange travel to Milwaukee where they will play a weekend series, before turning around and coming right back to Atlanta. The Mets have to jump through more hoops, while the Braves get to sleep in their own beds every night until a potential postseason berth.

With that said, the Braves are still one game behind the Mets in the win column and two behind the Arizona Diamondbacks after they won on Wednesday night. Let’s look into all the scenarios that could play out this weekend, and how it will impact the need to play a doubleheader on Monday.

How Do the Diamondbacks Factor into This Race?

The Arizona Diamondbacks could be sitting in a much better spot right now, had they not lost the first two games of their series against the San Francisco Giants to start the week. Luckily they were able to avoid a sweep on Wednesday, winning their 88th game.

With three games left to play, the Diamondbacks can still get to 91 wins if they sweep the San Diego Padres over the weekend.

The Padres have already clinched a Wild Card spot, but still could have the division in play if they beat the Dodgers on Thursday. If they don’t win, the Padres could still technically get knocked out of the top Wild Card spot if they were swept by the D-Backs (Arizona would have the tiebreaker).

Regardless of the Padres, the D-Backs would clinch a playoff berth if they win out, as it is impossible for both the Mets and the Braves to reach 91 wins. If each team swept their weekend series, the Mets would be sitting at 90 wins, the Braves at 89.

In this scenario, the Mets would just need to win one of the two games in the doubleheader, while the Braves would need to sweep.

Now if the D-Backs lose any more games, they would no longer control their fate, depending on what the Mets and Braves do this weekend. Arizona does not have the tiebreaker over either the Mets or the Braves, so all either has to do is tie them in win column to clinch a berth.

If the D-Backs finish with either 88 wins, or 89 wins, there is a scenario where the Mets and Braves can both match that win total by taking care of business in their series.

In this case, MLB could cancel the games on Monday if they only mattered for seeding and avoid all the craziness that would ensue.

If the D-Backs finish with 90 wins, the Mets could clinch a playoff spot before Monday by sweeping their series in Milwaukee. Yet they may still need to take part in the doubleheader, as the Braves cannot reach 90 wins without playing at least four more games.

What Does This Mean for the Mets and Braves?

The best case scenario for the Mets and Braves is that the Diamondbacks get swept by the Padres, and they are both able to win enough games to pass them and clinch without needing to play the doubleheader.

As things stand now, the Mets hold a one-game lead over the Braves with five games left to play. Their magic number still stands at five games, so if we set the D-Backs aside, the Mets could clinch this weekend with any combination of five wins and Braves losses.

If the Mets sweep and the Braves lose two games, Atlanta cannot catch them in the standings regardless of what happens in the doubleheader. By the same token, if the Mets win their series 2-1, and the Braves get swept, again they could not be caught.

Any other scenario would force a doubleheader, or at least one game to be play between these two teams (unless the D-Backs collapse and they both get in).

One last thing that is important to note, the New York Mets are the one team in this race that cannot be eliminated over the weekend.

If the Mets got swept and the Braves swept the Royals, the Mets would suddenly trail the Braves by two games in the standings. This would still give them a chance to sweep the doubleheader on Monday, moving them back even with the Braves in the standings but with the tiebreaker in hand for winning the season series.

With three teams in the mix, there are countless scenarios we can run through on how all this will play out. Ultimately all we can do now is sit back and wait to watch the chaos unfold.

Original Article that follows was published on September 25th:

They say lightening doesn’t strike the same place twice, but the same rules don’t typically apply when it comes to hurricanes. In the case of Atlanta, we are heading towards an eerily similar situation to one that unfolded back in 2022.

Two years ago, the Mets and Atlanta Braves were enthralled in a great pennant race, with New York leading the NL East by one game when the two teams met for a late September series.

Unfortunately all that people were talking about before the series was the weather, as Hurricane Ian was forecasted to head up the west coast of Florida and right through Atlanta, dumping inches of water on Truist Park, where the Braves were set to host the Mets.

Back then, I wrote about the implications of the weather, and the solutions Major League Baseball could be proactive about to get around a lost series. Well, instead of listening to me or anyone else who said the games should be moved to a neutral site, MLB waited it out and their patience was rewarded.

All three games were played on schedule and the Braves swept the Mets, turning a one game deficit into a two-game lead with three left to play. They also earned the tiebreaker by winning the season series, which came in handy as the Mets and Braves finished with an identical 101-win campaign.

The Mets were bounced by the Padres in the NL Wild Card round, while the Braves took a beating from the Phillies in the NLDS. Now here we are two years later, and Phillies are now on top of the NL East, while the Mets and Braves are fighting it out in the Wild Card race.

Once again, these two teams are playing their second-to-last series against one another, in games that could decide their fate come October. And again there is a hurricane!

What Are the Chances of Hurricane Helene Postponing Games?

Last time MLB waited out a]the storm it worked in their favor, as the season went off without a hitch back in 2022. Will they be as fortunate this year?

Considering what happened last time, we really can’t rule anything out. These storms are unpredictable, where there is a chance it won’t have any impact on the series, or it could completely wash away the Braves homestand to end their season, and put MLB in a huge pickle.

Looking at the forecast at Truist Park for Wednesday, there is a flood watch that has been put on beginning at 2:00 p.m. as Atlanta is expected to get plenty of rain.

With that said, the eye of the storm is not expected to hit Atlanta until Thursday night, so there is a chance they don’t get as much rain as some are predicting.

If they can get Wednesday’s game in, that would ease a lot of the pressure from Major League Baseball, as there are still three teams battling it out for two Wild Card spots, where a game-162 or even a game-161 might not matter.

There is a world where history repeats itself, and Atlanta does not get hit by this storm, allowing all three games to be played, but that seems rather unlikely. And with no word coming from Major League Baseball on Tuesday, any thoughts of moving the series to a neutral site, or trying to play a doubleheader on Wednesday is out of the question.

Even further, the Braves next series is also to be played in Atlanta, where they take on another team in a playoff race in the Kansas City Royals.

So how will postponed games impact the Wild Card race?

MLB is Rooting Against the D-Backs Right Now

Now it might sound crazy to see this, but what MLB needs more than anything to get out of this situation is for the Arizona Diamondbacks to lose. Going into play on Wednesday, the Mets have a half-game lead over Arizona in the race, while the Braves are a half a game behind the D-Backs.

With three teams separated by one game, anything can happen.

Arizona is at a disadvantage though, because they lost their season series to both the Braves and the Mets, meaning each holds a tiebreaker over the D-Backs. So all the Mets and Braves have to do by the end of the season is catch them in the win column.

The Diamondbacks opened up their homestand against the Giants on Monday, and they have already lost the first two games of the series. This gives them one less game to play than the Mets and Braves right now.

With four games left, the most wins the D-Backs can get to is 91, the same amount the San Diego Padres have already reached. The Padres are in a race atop the NL West with the Los Angeles Dodgers right now, and beat them on an insane triple play on Tuesday night.

The win cut the Padres deficit in the NL West to just two games, and they still have two more to play this week. If the Padres sweep the series, or even just win it, they have a chance to win the NL West if things break their way in their final series. This is important because they play in Arizona.

Playing a Padres team that is the hottest in baseball right now is no small task for the D-Backs. Especially if they still have something to play for.

Even if they salvage a win against the Giants, the D-Backs could easily get swept by San Diego to close out their season. If that was the case, they would finish with 88 wins, meaning the Mets would only need to win one more game to make the playoffs. The Braves would need to win two.

In this instance, if the Mets vs. Braves series was rained out, they could make it a moot point if they both won a game or two to close out the year. Now if the D-Backs won two of their final four games, it would take a bit more heavy-lifting, but a Mets series win and Braves series sweep would make those final few games meaningless.

Where things will get complicated though is if either the Mets or Braves lose in their final series, and if the D-Backs win. If the D-Backs finish ahead by a game, making up the postponed games would become a necessity to whatever team fell behind.

How Will They Make Up the Games?

If the Mets and Braves have one or two of these games postponed, they would be made up on Monday, the day after the end of the season. Because the Wild Card round starts on Tuesday, this would put the Mets and Braves at a considerable disadvantage, having to play on their travel day and exhaust their pitching before flying across the country to play a Wild Card series.

There is a world where one of these two teams runs the table in their final series and clinches a playoff berth, and they still have to make up these games to decide the race between the other team and the Diamondbacks. That would be a nightmare for MLB.

Hopefully, the weather will cooperate with the Mets and Braves, and we will able to get at least one more matchup between these teams before the rain gets in the way.

In the meantime, MLB will take this situation day-by-day, waiting to see how Hurricane Helene will impact the end of their season.