Isaac Paredes Has Begun His Love Affair With the Crawford Boxes

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes has long been one of the most confounding players in baseball. Since his breakout season in 2022, he’s been one of the better hitting third basemen in the game, with a .786 OPS and a 126 wRC+.

Yet, from a quick glance at his BABIP, you’d think he was due for even better results. You see, what counts as a normal BABIP for Paredes would be a sign of rotten luck for most other hitters. His .247 BABIP over the past four years ranks 135 out of 138 batters with at least 1,500 trips to the plate.

On the other hand, a quick glance at his Statcast expected metrics would make you think he was playing way over his head. Since 2022, Paredes has out-hit his xBA by 12 points and out-slugged his xSLG by a whopping 83 points. He has outperformed his xwOBA by at least 20 points in each of the past four seasons.

Paredes’s one simple trick (which isn’t really a trick and isn’t all that simple) is pulling balls in the air. Dating back to 2022, he has a 0.74 groundball-to-fly ball ratio, which means he hits roughly four fly balls for every three he hits on the ground. That GB/FB is the 13th lowest in MLB (min. 1,500 PA) in that span.

Meanwhile, no one (again, min. 1,500 PA) has a higher pull rate than Paredes over the past four seasons (per FanGraphs). He is one of just nine hitters with a pull rate above 50%.

In addition, Paredes leads the league with a 44.8% pull rate on fly balls (min. 150 fly balls). Combine that with his well-above-average contact and fly ball rates, and Paredes has hit 270 pulled fly balls over the past four seasons. Only four batters have hit more in that time, and all of them have taken significantly more plate appearances.

The average MLB hitter pulls a fly ball once every 15 or 16 trips to the plate. Paredes does it once every seven.

Pulling fly balls is a terrific way to do damage. Since 2022, pulled fly balls have a .412 batting average, a 1.828 OPS, and a 395 wRC+. They go for home runs about 30% of the time.

Pulled fly balls are especially valuable for right-handed hitters at Daikin Park. Since 2022, pulled fly balls by righty batters have a .484 batting average, a 2.110 OPS, and a 484 wRC+ at the Astros’ stadium. They have gone for home runs 34% of the time.

This is largely because Daikin Park has a famously short porch in left field, where the seats are known as the Crawford Boxes:

As a pull-heavy, fly ball-producing right-handed hitter, Paredes hits a lot of baseballs to left field. That type of batted ball is more likely to leave the yard in Houston than pretty much anywhere else. This is surely why the Astros pursued him as part of their return package in the Kyle Tucker trade.

Coming into the 2025 season, Paredes had hit 72 home runs in his career. Statcast estimates he would have hit an additional seven bombs if he played all his games at Daikin Park. That’s more than at any other stadium.

But wait. So far this year, Paredes has hit 16 home runs (tied for eighth in the AL), putting him on pace for a career-high 33. Yet, he has hit an equal number of those long balls at home and on the road. You might be thinking, That doesn’t sound like a Crawford Box merchant!

You’re right. Paredes is not a Crawford Box merchant. He’s a great hitter, full stop. And as a great hitter, he knows how to capitalize on his surroundings.

Statcast estimates he’d have 17 home runs this year if he played all his games at home. However, his expected home run total at every other ballpark is lower than his actual total of 16. His xHR (expected home runs) is only 11.6. That 4.4 HR difference between his real home run total and xHR is the fourth biggest in the league.

So, even though you wouldn’t know it just by looking at his surface-level home/road splits, Paredes is absolutely, without a doubt taking advantage of his new home ballpark.

Consider this: He has the highest pull rate among qualified hitters this season. Despite that, his 49.5% pull rate on the road only ranks 17th. How is that possible? Because his pull rate at home is 61.3%. That’s a massive difference.

Paredes isn’t some mediocre hitter benefiting from being in the right place at the right time. He’s a brilliant hitter who knows exactly how to make the most of a good opportunity.

Isaac Paredes is off to a terrific start with his new team. In addition to ranking among the top 10 AL batters in home runs and RBI, he ranks just outside the top 10 in OPS and wRC+. His 2.6 FanGraphs WAR ranks ninth. He’s a strong candidate to make his second consecutive All-Star Game next month.

He’s still no Kyle Tucker, but that’s really not his problem. Paredes has been the best version of himself so far for the Astros. His love affair with the Crawford Boxes has begun.

Stats in article updated prior to games on June 24.