Hagen Smith Has Quickly Become the White Sox’s Best Weapon
Smith's performance out of Chicago's bullpen has been game-changing for the club over the last six weeks.
If there’s one word to describe the 2024 MLB Draft, it would be fantastic.
The first round of that year’s class has already produced franchise-altering talent, multiple All-Star Games, and a large amount of big league talent just two years since the draft day itself. The first 12 picks of that year’s draft have all either appeared in a big league game or on Just Baseball’s Top 100 Prospects list at some point, which speaks to the level of talent selected in this class.
On that day, the Chicago White Sox were picking at No. 5 overall, putting them in a peculiar place. They were projected to be just on the outside of being able to land one of the “blue-chip” talents of that year’s class, meaning the top of the draft was going to heavily dictate how successful or disappointing their draft would be.
However, the top of the draft unfolded quite differently than originally expected. Travis Bazzana, Chase Burns, Charlie Condon, and Nick Kurtz made up the first four picks, meaning that the White Sox were in a much better position than originally anticipated. Jac Caglianone, Konnor Griffin, and JJ Wetherholt were just a few of the names left on the board for the taking.
But the club took a different route, selecting the best left-hander on the board at the time: Hagen Smith.
At the time, this looked like a fairly good pick, even with the names who remained on the board. But after Smith made his professional debut, some underlying problems really began to shine through. He struggled with control and the stuff needed to be a big league starter, which caused some real trouble for him professionally.
After his struggles as a starting pitcher continued again early this season, the White Sox decided they were going to begin developing him as a bullpen arm. He succeeded in this role and was rewarded with his major league debut as a result. Since arriving on the scene, he’s arguably become their top bullpen weapon.
Stats as of games on September 18.
Positive Early Returns
Smith made his debut back on August 9, and it was quite a memorable game. He pitched two scoreless innings, worked his way out of a tough jam, picked up his first three MLB strikeouts, and also recorded his first career hold.
Since then, Smith has been rewarded with a hefty workload in the big leagues, and he’s been dominant for a young, exciting White Sox team that’s pushing towards their first playoff appearance in five years.
So far in his big league career, Smith has pitched to a 1.14 ERA through 23.2 innings, notching 34 strikeouts along the way. Most importantly, Smith has posted the lowest walk rate of his professional career, excluding his 7.2-inning stint in High-A back in late 2024.
Despite posting the seventh-best bullpen ERA as a team in 2026, the White Sox’s bullpen has featured plenty of mixed returns when looking at the bigger picture. For example, they also rank seventh in blown saves and third in walks, leading many to believe that their bullpen is one of their notable weaknesses heading into October.
This has made Smith’s arrival and sheer dominance that much more impactful on the club. Since his debut on August 9, Smith has 21.2 relief innings for the White Sox, pitching to a 1.25 ERA during this span. This is, of course, factoring out the game he started for the club against the Pirates on September 10.
Only two pitchers in the team’s bullpen have pitched 20 or more innings during this period, and Smith is the only one to notch an ERA under 1.30. In fact, he’s one of just three pitchers in this span to record an ERA under 2.00 in five or more innings pitched.
Although the club may not use him in as many leverage innings as some of their other relievers, the fact that he’s been able to cover these middle innings effectively has been very important for this club. It’s allowed them to more easily bridge the gap to their high-octane arms, avoiding some of the trouble they’ve run into all year at those points in the game.
The Root Cause of Smith’s Success
To this point, we’ve only discussed the fact that Smith has been dominant early on in his MLB career, but we haven’t discussed why he’s been so effective. Especially after noting his early struggles while in the minors, his sudden, immediate success is fascinating.
For starters, Smith often struggled in the minors due to his lack of command and his overall inability to throw strikes consistently. In his two full minor league seasons, Smith never posted a walk rate lower than 15.9%, which is a total non-starter in discussions about future success. However, in the big leagues, this has improved quite a bit.
Even though his walk rate is still higher than most at 13.2%, it’s a lot more manageable than it was in the minors. As simple as this may seem, a large part of his success has simply been throwing more strikes, as he’s no longer allowing the unmanageable number of free passes that he was previously.
The story doesn’t entirely end right there, though, as a big part of his success is the atypical nature of his game.
For example, Smith’s delivery is unlike most around the league, which has created a funky angle for opposing hitters to try and pick up. His arm action is short, quick, and compact. When he pulls his arm back, it’s a quick, flatter plane rather than one that moves behind his body like a lot of other arms around the league.
The concept of hitters having a difficult time picking up this pitch can be supported by his whiff rates, which have been quite impressive to this point. Overall, Smith is currently running a 37.7% whiff rate, which would place him among the top of the league.
This number becomes even more impressive when you break it down by individual pitches. His slider has produced an absurd whiff rate over 45%, which has led to opponents hitting .054 against his primary breaking ball. His four-seamer has produced a whiff rate over 30%, too, which isn’t common for non-high-velocity fastballs similar to his.
Smith’s delivery becomes even more difficult to pick up when you factor in his elite extension, which allows his stuff to play up even more. To this point, he’s averaged nearly seven feet of extension; that places him among the top 13% of the sport. In other words, his delivery that’s already hard to pick up becomes even better.
The combination of an atypical delivery and an increase in strikes thrown are the two main factors that have helped carry him to success so far. Despite seeming like a simple concept, these two things alone have done wonders for him.
Is This Sustainable?
After seeing Smith’s breakout and some of the numbers that support his big league success, we’re left with one remaining question: Is this sustainable moving forward?
This has been the million-dollar question when discussing Smith to this point, especially with rumors swirling that Chicago may want to try him in the starting rotation next season. With how he’s performed to this point, it’s easy to lean in the direction that this performance is legitimate, and something we can expect from him moving forward.
On the other hand, it could become an uphill battle for Smith at times. If hitters begin to pick up on his delivery, some of the deception he creates could wear off quickly. One of the other things he struggled with in the minor leagues was his health, and through these battles with the injured list, his delivery became inconsistent, which could be a recipe for disaster in the big leagues.
On top of this, if the White Sox were to try Smith in the rotation, they would have to consider that his stuff might not be quite as competitive in a starter’s role. He only possesses four pitches in his arsenal, and with his changeup being used just 3% of the time to this point, it’s more like a three-pitch mix with little guesswork involved for hitters.
His main three pitches have consisted of a four-seamer, slider, and cutter, which, when you boil it down, isn’t as challenging to handle as many pitch mixes in the sport. For Smith to find more prolonged success, his changeup will likely have to see an uptick in usage, which could present a challenge since its location has been spotty at best.
Regardless, his performance out of the White Sox bullpen so far has been game-changing for the club, and hopefully a sign of encouraging things to come. He’s looking a lot more like the player he was expected to be when the White Sox selected him fifth overall in 2024, which will be very important as this team begins to enter a new Golden Era of competitive baseball.
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Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…