A Familiar Formula Can Get the Royals Back to the World Series

Few teams surprised in the 2024 regular season more than the Kansas City Royals. The club finished 86-76 in a year where very few people expected them to field a competitive unit.

By now, we all know how this squad typically comes together at the big league level. We’re not dealing with one of the most powerful lineups in the game, but they find a way to play a pesky brand of small-ball, and in recent years they’ve managed to assemble a strong pitching staff, too. During the 2024 season, this is basically the exact way they made their way to contention – with some major power output from a pair of sluggers as well.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez were easily their top offensive contributors, but Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey both finished with a wRC+ north of 100 as well.

Still, 2024 was the Witt-Perez show; especially the former, as he finished ninth in the AL in home runs (32) and stolen bases (31), second in runs scored (125), tied for third in wRC+ (168), and tied for fourth in RBI (109), all while winning the batting title thanks to his .332 average.

In what will have been 10 years ago on Opening Day, the Royals were just setting out on a run that resulted in a World Series Championship. That year, they relied heavily on their pitching staff with any offensive output nothing more than an added bonus. The Royals of 10 years ago had one of the most unimpressive offenses in the game, but they stole bases and played top-tier defense with the best of them.

That run-prevention and small-ball, mixed with a pitching staff (bullpen, really) for the ages, helped carry them all the way to the finish line — and the upcoming season already has all the makings of a repeat performance. The 2015 and 2025 teams are quite a bit different, but there are also a boatload of similarities.

The Royals Leaning on Their Pitching Staff Is All-Too-Familiar

Back in 2015, the Royals’ had what was essentially half of their lineup posting above-average stat lines and the other half barely contributing. Kendrys Morales, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and a hobbled Alex Gordon were the cream of the crop in that year’s offense, but on the flip side, Perez (until the postseason), Alex Rios, Omar Infante, Alcides Escobar, and a pairing of Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson failed to even sniff league-average.

As a whole, they were just seventh in the league in runs scored, finishing 30th in walk rate, 21st in ISO, and 20th in hard-hit percentage. The Royals’ offense won games by constantly making contact, stealing bases every chance they got, and rarely ever striking out. It’s worth mentioning, too, that Gordon, Cain, Infante, and Hosmer all played better-than-average defense, so their identity leaned heavily on preventing runs wherever possible and letting the pitching staff do the rest.

Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Danny Duffy, and the late Yordano Ventura were the Royals’ top four starters that year, with Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton and Kris Medlen also getting the occasional looks. Most of the rotation performed well, but a lack of a clear-cut ace held the Royals back until the deadline came around.

Mid-season acquisitions of Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto ultimately wound up carrying the Royals down the stretch. Zobrist immediately became one of the best run-producers on the club, and Cueto looked “just okay” across 13 regular-season starts before stepping up in the postseason.

Looking at the lineup and starting rotation of the 2015 Royals, it’s a bit confusing as to how this squad made the postseason. However, it’s that bullpen that singlehandedly transformed them from fringe playoff contender into an absolute unit.

How a Super-Bullpen Worked for the 2015 Royals

There’s no exaggeration here when saying that if the 2015 Royals entered the sixth or seventh inning with even a one-run lead, there was little to no shot that a comeback from the other team was in the works.

Armed with a four-headed beast led by Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, Ryan Madson, and Greg Holland, the Royals were stacked — and that’s without mentioning Franklin Morales, Luke Hocevar, and Jason Frasor. Every single one of these pitchers finished the season with an ERA below 3.83.

Of this group, four of them finished the 2015 season with an ERA beginning with a 2. Herrera, Davis, Madson, and Morales all made 67 or more appearances, and Holland held the back-end down with 32 saves in 48 games. However, a late-season Tommy John surgery wiped Holland out and led to Davis taking over as the closer, but even then, Kansas City didn’t miss a beat.

As the Royals’ closer in the postseason, Davis made eight scoreless appearances, earned four saves, and struck out 18 batters across 10.2 innings of work. Herrera made eight scoreless appearances of his own across the ALCS and World Series, while Madson also contributed three shutout innings in the World Series against the Mets.

Simply making it to the sixth inning that year had the Royals sitting pretty. All told, the club had the most innings thrown by relievers in the American League while finishing in the top-five in reliever strikeouts, sixth-lowest home runs allowed, and the lowest batting average-against in the league.

How the Magic Could Be Brought Back

Heading into the upcoming season, Kansas City already has a pair of recent additions to lean on in Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey. John Schreiber and Sam Long are also around with their own upside, but it’s clear that the group as a whole isn’t on the same level as they were a decade ago.

That’s not to say that there isn’t room for improvement, though. In fact, there are two or three spots in the bullpen that could be labeled as “up for grabs,” and the club has multiple different avenues to go about landing those upgrades.

Perhaps some of that comes from within. Steven Cruz, Evan Sisk and Eric Cerantola are all projected to start 2025 in Triple-A, but each of them comes with their own share of upside and untapped potential. Jacob Wallace isn’t on the 40-man roster just yet, but he’s another name to watch.

We also need to mention that the starting rotation in the upcoming season is going to vastly outperform the one from 2015. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha have all the makings of a dominant trio, with Ragans being the youngest and most promising of the bunch. Lugo and Wacha bring the experience and Ragans brings the pure star-power.

This is all without mentioning Kris Bubic, who is going to get another look at starting after functioning strictly as a reliever in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. If he can replicate some of that success he had out of the ‘pen in the rotation, this quartet is suddenly looking extremely dangerous. Now, there’s a path to a reunion with someone like Michael Lorenzen to round out the rotation and give the Royals a starting-five that can be leaned upon more.

The point is, the Royals have a way to lean on their pitching staff to carry them again, just as they did 10 years ago. Having the starting rotation be on a similar level to the bullpen will give them a much more “complete” pitching staff, rather than crossing their fingers the bullpen can come in with a lead.

Free Agent Reliever Targets

Clay Holmes, Yimi Garcia, Blake Treinen, and old friend Aroldis Chapman are all already off the board this offseason, but there is a ton of relief-pitching still available. The Royals need to do what they can to bring aboard not one, but two of the best-available arms.

Due to a fairly limited budget that may not exactly help the Royals to make any major free-agent splashes this winter, upgrades may need to come in the form of trades rather than more than one signing on the open market.

In free agency, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez, Chris Martin, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson stick out above the rest. Any of these pitchers would be most welcomed on the Royals’ 2025 roster, but it may be easiest for J.J. Picollo and Co. to sign just one and make a trade (or two) on the side.

If Kansas City wants to fully lean in to the “experienced veterans” thing, Yates, Martin, and Robertson could all be had on one-year contracts, as they’re all nearing the end of their respective careers. Yates and Robertson in particular are of interest, but Martin posted a 1.05 ERA in 2023.

It may be an unrealistic ask, but adding Scott or Hoffman and one of Yates, Martin, or Robertson would go a long way to tighten things up.

Since Witt is set to earn a ridiculously-low $7.7 million in 2025, the Royals have one of the game’s top stars on a bargain. Perez, Wacha and Lugo are the only players on the roster making millions in the double-digits. They could find some financial flexibility come in the form of a Hunter Renfroe and/or Chris Stratton trade, but they’d have to do so knowing they won’t get much in return. They would be straight salary-dumps, but not without a higher purpose.

Trade Targets

If the Royals were prepared to wheel-and-deal and spend money in free agency, it’s clear they would have already done so. Earlier this offseason, they lined up on a trade with the Cincinnati Reds to land Jonathan India’s bat, but it cost Kansas City a pitcher they like in Brady Singer. Making trades rather than signings in free agency will always come with a larger price than just money.

Now that Devin Williams has moved on from Milwaukee, the best-available reliever that could be traded is Ryan Helsley of the St. Louis Cardinals, who wouldn’t have to move very far if the Royals and Cardinals were able to line up on a deal. However, it sounds like the Cards may prefer to hold on to him, despite the fact that they’re currently looking to shake up their 2025 roster via trade.

Looking beyond Helsley, there are a few other top-shelf options out there that could be had via trade. Pete Fairbanks, Camilo Doval, and Ryan Pressly all stand out.

Fairbanks, 31, has been the Rays’ primary closer over the past few seasons and has a combined 3.08 ERA through 95 games dating back to 2022. He’s a high-strikeout flamethrower (97.3 AVG mph on his four-seam last year) who excels at keeping the bases clean during his outings.

His trade value may have taken a slight hit this past season after his strikeout numbers fell off and he allowed nearly two hits per nine innings more than he had in years past. Fairbanks is set to hit free agency after 2025, unless his $7 million 2026 club option gets picked up.

Pressly, 36, has gradually become one of the game’s best (yet underrated) relief pitchers as he’s aged. The right-hander has functioned in a variety of different roles for the Astros over the past seven years, but he’s done well in all of them. Pressly has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in every season since 2017 and brings a ton of playoff and closing experience to the field.

Then there’s Doval, 27, who was an All-Star in 2023 but battled through a ton of inconsistencies on the mound this past season, losing his hold on the closer’s role and at one point being optioned to Triple-A. Still, he’s young, controllable and strikes out a ton of batters. The Royals may have to pay a pretty penny to land him, but the reward is higher than the risk in this instance.

Don’t Forget About the Offense

There are quite a few similarities between the 2015 and 2025 Royals, but there’s a chance the upcoming season’s roster outslugs the one from a decade ago – at least if 2024 is any indicator.

Interestingly enough, the modern Royals do a much better job at hitting the ball over the fence and stealing bases. Yet, the small-ball, championship-winning club from a decade ago had a higher batting average and slugging percentage, but not by much.

Seven of the nine projected position players for the Royals’ 2025 Opening Day lineup hit 14 or more home runs this past year, while six pulled it off on that championship-winning squad.

This side-by-side comparison is to show that the Royals already have an offense in place that’s better than it was 10 years ago. The 2015 club has always been looked back on as a light-hitting one that stole bases and had dominant relief pitching, but they still won it all. Funnily enough, only three players stole 10 or more bases on that team, while four did it for Kansas City this past year.

As currently assembled, the Royals have more power, speed, defense, and starting pitching than they did a decade ago when they got that ring. That really makes you wonder how good the current 26-man roster could be if they manage to shore up that bullpen just a little bit more. With all of the pieces remaining on the free-agent market, the sky feels like the limit if the front office is willing to write the checks.

Keeping up With Cleveland

Ultimately, the Royals need to shore up their bullpen to keep up with their division rival Cleveland Guardians. During the 2024 season, Cleveland had arguably the best bullpen in the major leagues with a back-end quartet that dreams are made of.

Guardians relievers combined to lead the league in bullpen ERA by a wide margin, finishing with a 2.57 and the second-best Brewers coming in at 3.11. Cleveland’s 3.30 bullpen FIP also led the way, as did their stinginess when it came to surrendering home runs (0.75 HR/9) and BABIP (.257).

Right-handers Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA, 47 SV, 74.1 IP), Cade Smith (1.91 ERA, 75.1 IP), and Hunter Gaddis (1.57 ERA, 74.2 IP), alongside left-hander Tim Herrin (1.92 ERA, 65.2 IP) formed the most lethal ‘pen we’ve seen in recent history, and it brings back memories of that Royals relief core from a decade ago.

Closing Thoughts

The Royals have the ability to bring some magic back. They’ve made it work before, and it’s of an even higher importance now that means they’re going to be up against one of their division rivals to get back to the promised land in 2025.

With a strong starting rotation to lean on and unlimited potential to upgrade an already solid bullpen, there’s a true shot at bringing a ring back to Kansas City. History has shown us (see: Ragans/Erceg/Harvey trades, Wacha/Lugo signings) that the club is smart with the money they’ve got and that they know when it’s the right time to strike on upgrades.

Now, it’s just a matter of executing again, and there’s no reason to believe the opportunities dangling in front of them will be swung at and missed.